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Micron- Optane runs out of Octane- Bye Bye Lehi- US chip effort takes a hit

Micron- Optane runs out of Octane- Bye Bye Lehi- US chip effort takes a hit
by Robert Maire on 03-21-2021 at 6:00 am

Intel Optane Micron SemiWiki

– Micron shuts down once promising XPoint
– Lehi Utah fab to be sold off- Had been a $400M drain
– Unique memory couldn’t follow flash down cost/yield curve
– Savings helps Micron but its now just another memory maker

XPoint “Coulda been a contender”

XPoint should have amounted to more… Read More


Chip Channel Check- Semi Shortage Spreading- Beyond autos-Will impact earnings

Chip Channel Check- Semi Shortage Spreading- Beyond autos-Will impact earnings
by Robert Maire on 03-07-2021 at 10:00 am

Robert Maire 2

– Semiconductor shortage is like toilet paper shortage in early Covid
– Panic buying, hoarding, double ordering will cause spike
– Could cause a year+ of dislocation in chip makers before ending
– Investors, Govt & Mgmt will get a wake up call from earnings hit

Auto industry is just a prominent tip Read More


Semiconductor Shortage – No Quick Fix – Years of neglect & financial hills to climb

Semiconductor Shortage – No Quick Fix – Years of neglect & financial hills to climb
by Robert Maire on 03-03-2021 at 8:00 am

Toamagachi Semiconductor shortage

– Semi Situation Stems from long term systemic neglect
– Will require much more than money & time than thought
– Fundamental change is needed to offset the financial bias
– Auto industry is just the hint of a much larger problem

Like recognizing global warming when the water is up to your neck

The problem… Read More


“For Want of a Chip, the Auto Industry was Lost”

“For Want of a Chip, the Auto Industry was Lost”
by Robert Maire on 02-11-2021 at 10:00 am

Auto Assembly Line

Semiconductor production can’t be turned on and off like a switch

Semiconductor fabs have to run 24/7 to make money. They have to be running full all the time to fully utilize the high running costs and in the case of new fabs, high capital costs.

Unlike a brake pad factory hat can hire and fire people at will and source readily … Read More


Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?

Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?
by Robert Maire on 02-07-2021 at 6:00 am

KLA EUV Slowdown

-KLAC- Solid QTR & Guide but flat 2021 outlook
-Display down & more memory mix
-KLAC has very solid Dec Qtr & guide but 2021 looks flattish
-Mix shift to memory doesn’t help- Display weakness
-Despite flat still looking at double digit growth
-EUV driven business may see some slowing from digestion

As always, … Read More


New Intel CEO Commits to Remaining an IDM

New Intel CEO Commits to Remaining an IDM
by Robert Maire on 01-25-2021 at 6:00 am

Pat Gelsinger Intel CEO

-Intel good results had a little extra help to be great
-New CEO commits to remaining an IDM versus fabless
-Claims of strong progress on 7NM fuel optimism inside
-Outsourcing to TSMC will not go away but will increase

A good quarter but with some silicon enhancements from ICAP

Intel reported Revenues of $20B and EPS of $1.52, which… Read More


ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory

ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2021 at 6:00 am

ASML SMIC TSMC EUV DUV

ASML has good quarter driven by DUV & Logic (@72%)
– SMIC & other major customer slow EUV plans
– Logic (read that as TSMC) remains key demand led driver
– We are happy memory remains muted given cyclical potential

A very solid quarter with a continued road to growth
The quarter came in at Euro4,254B… Read More


2020 was a Mess for Intel

2020 was a Mess for Intel
by Robert Maire on 01-13-2021 at 10:00 am

Intel 2020 Mess

Understanding Intel’s future means understanding Intel’s past

Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run. There’s still time to change the road you’re on.

Intel is at a crossroad. The road they have been on since inception, and the road that has differentiated them from the rest of the pack… Read More


SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam

SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam
by Robert Maire on 12-20-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC Blacklisted US

US BIS confirms our prediction of “blacklisting” SMIC
SMIC embargoed from 10NM or better technology
Likely related to ASML pressure & WH scorched earth

Not just the stock

We had received a lot of feedback on our Nov 30th note regarding blacklisting of SMIC suggesting that we were wrong and the only thing blacklisted… Read More


Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?

Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?
by Robert Maire on 12-01-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC US Embargo

-US Administration to “blacklist” SMIC- Cutting off ALL US help
-A slow death versus a quick death (unlike Jinhua)
-There is enough time on way out door to leave scorched earth
-Reports in the Media about SMIC being “Blacklisted”

It has been widely reported that SMIC will be added to the US “Blacklist”… Read More