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In the closing scene of Steven Spielberg’s Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981), the camera pulls back to reveal an enormous warehouse stacked with crates of artifacts hidden away by the US government.
One could imagine a similar warehouse in China today. The crates would hold a different kind of treasure – semiconductor production … Read More
- China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
- Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
- Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
- The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment
Quarterly reports from… Read More
- LRCX has OK QTR but “challenging outlook” – Memory still sucks
- China at 48% is a huge risk given potential of more sanctions
- Leading & trailing logic both poor- no recovery in sight yet
- Memory spending at historical lows for NAND
Quarter came in OK but outlook seems weak and unclear
Revenues came in at $3.48B… Read More
Production of electronic devices is finally on the uptrend following a post-pandemic slump in late 2021. According to IDC, smartphone shipments versus a year ago turned negative in 3Q 2021 at -6%. The decline hit a low of -18% in 4Q 2022. Since then, smartphones have been recovering. IDC data is not yet available, but Canalys estimated… Read More
- The memory down cycle is longer/deeper than many thought
- The recovery will be slower than past cycles- a “U” rather than “V”
- AI & new apps don’t make up for macro weakness
- Negative for overall semis & equip- Could China extend downcycle?
Micron report suggests a longer deeper down cycle
…
Read More
-We think China issue is overblown- Zero sum game theory
-US should respond Tit-for-Tat and then some- Chop Chinese Chips
-Chip equip makers duplicitous behavior- smacks of hypocrisy
-Exporting chip equip biz/jobs to Asia while asking for CHIPS Act$
Memory Market remains a zero sum game market much like petroleum
China’s… Read More
-AMAT reported inline resulted helped by trailing edge & China
-Memory remains at very low levels- Foundry remains uninspiring
-China seems to be buying anything they are allowed to buy
-The recovery is too far out & unknown to handicap
Quarter was OK and Guidance also OK
Revenue was $6.63B and EPS of $1.86 versus reduced… Read More
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a rapidly growing field that has the potential to revolutionize the way we work, learn, and interact with technology. The term AI refers to the ability of machines to perform tasks that would typically require human intelligence, such as decision-making, problem-solving, and natural language… Read More
-Lam reported in line results on reduced expectations
-Guidance disappoints as memory decline continues
-Memory capex down 50% but still sees “further declines”
-Lam ties future to EUV maybe not good idea after ASML report
Lam comes in above grossly already reduced expectations
and misses on guidance
We always … Read More
-Reports of further tightening of China SemiCap Restrictions
-Likely closing loopholes & pushing back technology line
-Dutch have joined, Japan will too- So far no Chinese reaction
-SVB is toast but repercussions may be far worse
Reports of tightening semiconductor sanctions on Friday
It was reported byBloomberg of Friday… Read More
No! TSMC does not Make 90% of Advanced Silicon