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-US, Japan & Dutch agree to embargo some China chip equip
-Goes beyond just leading edge & will increase negative impact
-China might catch up in decades or invade Taiwan tomorrow
-Why the memory downturn could be longer than expected
Ganging up on China
It appears that the US has put together a coalition of the US, Japan and… Read More
After the Biden administration upped the ante in the tech war by restricting China’s access to advanced US semiconductor technology, the $64,000 question was “How might Beijing respond?”
Punishing American companies in China (like Apple and Tesla) was not considered likely given the employment they generate – Apple… Read More
-KLA great quarter & guide as backlog mutes China/Economy
-Patterning starts to catch up to wafer inspection outperform
-China impact is limited to leading edge & specific customers
-Cuts in memory capex less impactful on KLA
KLAC reports strong quarter and good guide
Revenues were $2.7B with EPS of $7.06 versus street… Read More
-Lam reports good quarter that is high water mark for cycle
-2023 WFE to be down more than 20%- Cuts spending & Hiring
-If we back out deferred rev outlook would be down for Dec
-Memory already Down & China down $2-$2.5B in 2023
Lam reports good quarter but likely peak of current cycle with clear drop
Lam reported revenues of … Read More
-ASML has great QTR & Outlook & Huge Euro8.9B orders
-Relatively immune from China due to mainly non leading edge
-Monster Euro38B backlog – 60EUV & 375DUV systems in 2023
-5% China risk to 2023- still mainly supply constrained
ASML proves litho’s place at Apex of semiconductor food chain
ASML announced… Read More
-Semi Equip go from bad to worse as TSMC cuts capex
-Numbers will be slashed for December quarter
-So far just a handful of exceptions to blockade but temporary
-China’s response could be very ugly
Fast motion train wreck
Just when some people thought that Fridays department of commerce announcement couldn’t get worse,… Read More
-Commerce Dept drops a 100 page nuke on the Semi industry
-Many words but not a lot of clarity on exact impact
-Implementation & interpretation will be key to quantify impact
-It’s all bad, just a question of how bad
China is the industry’s biggest customer
We all know that China uses most of the world’s semiconductors… Read More
The CHIPS and Science Act has its fair share of critics, with detractors calling it corporate welfare for “losers” like Intel, or lacking guardrails to prevent companies making legacy chips in China.
One of the most vocal opponents of the act has been China’s communist-ruled government.
CHIPS – an acronym for Creating Helpful … Read More
-Need more/less spend & more/fewer chips
-The irony of chips act passage & Intel stumble on same day
-Due to excess supply of chips, Intel cuts spending
-Due to shortage of chips, the government increases spending
-How did this happen on the same day? Cosmic Coincidence?
Timing is everything
The irony of intel cutting spending… Read More
-If you can’t beat them, embargo them
-It has been reported US wants ASML to halt China DUV tools
-US obviously wants to kill, not just wound China chip biz
-Is this embargo the alternative to failed CHIPS act?
-Hard to say “do as I say, not as I do”- but US does anyway
First EUV ban now DUV ban? Are process & yield… Read More
Intel High NA Adoption