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KLAC- Weak Guide-2023 will “drift down”-Not just memory weak, China & logic too

KLAC- Weak Guide-2023 will “drift down”-Not just memory weak, China & logic too
by Robert Maire on 02-06-2023 at 6:00 am

KLAC Tencor SemiWiki

-Business will “drift down” over the course of 2023
-Not just memory is weak- China issue, foundry/logic slowing
-March guide worse than expected (Like Lam)
-Backlog likely saw push outs & cancelations but still long

Good quarter but weak guide

Much as we saw with Lam, KLA reported a beat on the December quarter… Read More


Hynix historic loss confirms memory meltdown-getting worse – AMD a bright spot

Hynix historic loss confirms memory meltdown-getting worse – AMD a bright spot
by Robert Maire on 02-03-2023 at 8:00 am

Memory Meltdown

-Hynix reports worst downturn in 10yrs – Already in red ink
-If the #2 memory maker is already negative what does it say?
-Confirms our view of 2023 write off- maybe 2024 better?
-Micron Mangled? & Toshiba Toast?- Buyers advantage

Hynix posts record $1.4B loss- worst in 10 years

Not all that surprisingly Hynix reported… Read More


Samsung- full capex speed ahead, damn the downturn- Has Micron in its crosshairs

Samsung- full capex speed ahead, damn the downturn- Has Micron in its crosshairs
by Robert Maire on 02-02-2023 at 2:00 pm

Samsung Electronics

-Samsung said its not reducing its capex despite downturn
-A clear indication they want to take share/kill Micron & others
-Is the US government subsidizing predatory chip behavior?
-The last US memory chip maker is clearly threatened

Samsung announces worst results in 8 years

Samsung released its earnings which were the… Read More


Lam chops guidance, outlook, headcount- an ugly, long downturn- memory plunges

Lam chops guidance, outlook, headcount- an ugly, long downturn- memory plunges
by Robert Maire on 01-31-2023 at 2:00 pm

Lamb chops

-Lam Research chops guidance, outlook & headcount sharply
-Further declines as 2023 will be H1 weighted- No end in sight
-System sales cut by more than half as even service is cut
-Memory is the culprit as expected-Forcing business “reset”

A sad sounding conference call….

While Lam reported a good December,… Read More


ASML – Powering through weakness – Almost untouchable – Lead times exceed downturn

ASML – Powering through weakness – Almost untouchable – Lead times exceed downturn
by Robert Maire on 01-26-2023 at 10:00 am

Robert Maire Bloomberg

-Demand far exceeds supply & much longer than any downturn
-Full speed ahead-$40B in solid backlog provides great comfort
-ASP increase shows strength- China is non issue
-In a completely different league than other equipment makers

Reports a good beat & Guide

Revenues were Euro6.4B with system sales making up Euro4.7B… Read More


Where there’s Smoke there’s Fire: UCTT ICHR LRCX AMAT KLAC Memory

Where there’s Smoke there’s Fire: UCTT ICHR LRCX AMAT KLAC Memory
by Robert Maire on 01-16-2023 at 10:00 am

Stock Market on Fire

-UCTT & ICHR both pre announce ugly QTR & blame memory
-LRCX is the memory “poster child” & most impacted
-This is on top of China & Economic issues & memory specific
-Clearing out inventory is a sign of expected slow recovery

UCTT & ICHR pre-announce ugly quarters

Both UCTT & ICHR that … Read More


Samsung Ugly as Expected Profits off 69% Winning a Game of CAPEX Chicken

Samsung Ugly as Expected Profits off 69% Winning a Game of CAPEX Chicken
by Robert Maire on 01-09-2023 at 6:00 am

Samsung 2022

-Samsung off the same chip cliff as Micron- “No skid marks”
-Samsung may be winning at a game of “Capex Chicken”
-No expectation of recovery any time soon – Consumers weak
-2023 a write off- Recovery will be delayed if spending isn’t

Samsungs worst quarter in 8 years no surprise

Samsung pre… Read More


Micron Ugly Free Fall Continues as Downcycle Shapes Come into Focus

Micron Ugly Free Fall Continues as Downcycle Shapes Come into Focus
by Robert Maire on 12-26-2022 at 6:00 am

Micron Crashing 2022

-Micron off the proverbial cliff and falling faster
-Looking at a much longer/deeper decline in memory
-Layoffs, capex cuts, slowdowns- battening down the hatches
-Micron seems to imply more of a “U” or “L” shaped downcycle

Micron’s numbers as bad as we expected And much worse than most on the

Read More

AMAT and Semitool Deja Vu all over again

AMAT and Semitool Deja Vu all over again
by Robert Maire on 11-24-2022 at 6:00 am

Lam SemiWiki SemiSysco

-Lam/Semisysco is a repeat of AMAT/Semitool
-Adds wet processing that larger companies lack
-Semisysco tools amazingly similar to those made by Semitool
-Lightning strikes twice for Ray Thompson

Deja Vu all over again

In a clear example of history repeating itself, Lam Research bought Semisysco, a company founded by Ray Thompson,… Read More


Micron- “The first cut isn’t the deepest”- Chops production & forecast further

Micron- “The first cut isn’t the deepest”- Chops production & forecast further
by Robert Maire on 11-23-2022 at 6:00 am

Micron SemiWiki 2022

-Micron announces more production cuts & lower forecast
-DRAM will be negative- NAND sounds barely flat (for now)
-Capital spending to be cut to near zero- essential only
-Will the rest of the industry follow suit?

“The first cut isn’t the deepest”
(Apologies to Rod Stewart)

When Micron first announced… Read More