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KLAC- Very Strong Sept & Guide-Foundry up 50%- 5NM & EUV drivers- Outperforming

KLAC- Very Strong Sept & Guide-Foundry up 50%- 5NM & EUV drivers- Outperforming
by Robert Maire on 11-05-2019 at 6:00 am

  • Image RemovedKLAC Strong Beat on Both Sept Q & Dec Guide
  • Foundry/logic (TSMC) up 50% H2 vs H1
  • Gen 5 acceptance and 5NM rollout drive future

Strong beat in Sept results and Dec Guide
KLAC reported revenue of $1.41B and EPS of $2.48 handily beating street estimates of $1.5B and $2.20 in EPS. More importantly the company guided December… Read More


AMD Intel TSMC menage a trois and the trouble with trouples

AMD Intel TSMC menage a trois and the trouble with trouples
by Robert Maire on 11-01-2019 at 10:00 am

  • Image RemovedIts “Complicated”- A 3 way Chip Relationship
  • Competing for Wafers, Moore’s Law & Love
  • Who’s Competing with Whom?
  • All’s Fair

The 3 way relationship is more complex than it seems

On the surface it seems simple. AMD and TSMC compete with Intel making its own chips and TSMC making … Read More


LRCX – A recovery without memory? Korea share gain? TSMC bonus?- all upside

LRCX – A recovery without memory? Korea share gain? TSMC bonus?- all upside
by Robert Maire on 10-23-2019 at 6:00 am

Image RemovedLAM will likely bounce on Korea gains & TSMC
Memory still sucks but TSMC is hot!
Korea upside from share gains?
Japan/Korea – The “Beer Barometer”

Looks like a good Q3….
We think when Lam reports their Q3 this wednesday it will likely be a positive catalyst for the stock as we think the report… Read More


ASML – In Line Qtr but big bookings – Logic Strong! Memory ? EUV?

ASML – In Line Qtr but big bookings – Logic Strong! Memory ? EUV?
by Robert Maire on 10-20-2019 at 6:00 am

Image RemovedASML in line QTR with big Orders
Near term slippage w long term upside
Logic is strong but memory recovery unknown
EUV is finally a reality/commercialized

In line quarter- supplier slippage expected in Q4
Results were revenues of Euro 3B and EPS of Euro 1.49, more or less in line with earnings estimate if a tad bit light… Read More


TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution

TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution
by Robert Maire on 10-19-2019 at 6:00 am

Image RemovedTSMC puts up solid QTR, Capex increase for 5NM and capacity increase, 5G/mobile remains driver- HPC good 7NM, 27% of revs- Very nice margins!

In line quarter-Good guide
TSMC reported revenues of $9.4B and EPS of $0.62 , more or less in line with expectations, perhaps a touch below ” whisper” expectations… Read More


Micron Mired in Murky Memory Market – Cutting Capex 30%- 2020 Challenging

Micron Mired in Murky Memory Market – Cutting Capex 30%- 2020 Challenging
by Daniel Nenni on 09-29-2019 at 10:00 am

Image Removed

  • Solid Quarter but soft Outlook
  • Recovery Slow- Future Cost Downs Harder
  • Demand slightly ahead of supply-Shelf Stuffed?
  • Bouncing along the Bottom of the Cycle

Results ahead of expectation but guide behind expectation
Quarterly results were slightly better than street expectations at $0.56 EPS and $4.87B in revenues… Read More


Is Samsung having problems with 7NM? Do long lines at TSMC prove that?

Is Samsung having problems with 7NM? Do long lines at TSMC prove that?
by Robert Maire on 09-19-2019 at 2:00 pm

Image RemovedReports of increasing TSMC 7NM lead times
There have been a number of increasing media reports about lengthening leads times for TSMC 7NM process. From what we have been able to determine its not due to TSMC having a yield bust or other production issues, it is simply one of stronger than expected demand.

There have been… Read More


The Korea/Japan trade war benefits US more than US/China hurts US

The Korea/Japan trade war benefits US more than US/China hurts US
by Robert Maire on 09-18-2019 at 10:00 am

Image RemovedInvestors underestimate Japan/Korea trade war, US chip equip companies get collateral benefit, Long term share shifts in China & Korea, Creates near term upside for US companies, Memory Chip Price “Mirage”.
The lesser known trade war
While the market and the news has been pre-occupied with the
Read More

GloFo & TSMC lawsuit- A Surrogate Trade War- Pushing TSMC into China’s open arms?

GloFo & TSMC lawsuit- A Surrogate Trade War- Pushing TSMC into China’s open arms?
by Robert Maire on 08-29-2019 at 10:00 am

Image RemovedSurrogate Wars
Is GloFo using the trade war as an excuse?
Does TSMC get lumped in with China on trade?
Does this alienate TSMC into China’s embrace?

Much like Vietnam and Korea before it, there have been a number of “surrogate” wars between the US and China as well as many other wars between the US and… Read More


Memory Manifesto – Examining the “new (slower) normal” of the memory industry

Memory Manifesto – Examining the “new (slower) normal” of the memory industry
by Robert Maire on 08-25-2019 at 12:00 pm

  • Image RemovedThe perfect storm that drove memory is over
  • The “new normal” goes back to older model
  • The capex & tech pendulum swings to logic

We try to examine the future of the memory segment of the semiconductor industry given the current market and technology drivers combined with historical behavior.

Passing the Baton
The… Read More