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2020 was a Mess for Intel

2020 was a Mess for Intel
by Robert Maire on 01-13-2021 at 10:00 am

Intel 2020 Mess

Understanding Intel’s future means understanding Intel’s past

Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run. There’s still time to change the road you’re on.

Intel is at a crossroad. The road they have been on since inception, and the road that has differentiated them from the rest of the pack… Read More


SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam

SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam
by Robert Maire on 12-20-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC Blacklisted US

US BIS confirms our prediction of “blacklisting” SMIC
SMIC embargoed from 10NM or better technology
Likely related to ASML pressure & WH scorched earth

Not just the stock

We had received a lot of feedback on our Nov 30th note regarding blacklisting of SMIC suggesting that we were wrong and the only thing blacklisted… Read More


Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?

Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?
by Robert Maire on 12-01-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC US Embargo

-US Administration to “blacklist” SMIC- Cutting off ALL US help
-A slow death versus a quick death (unlike Jinhua)
-There is enough time on way out door to leave scorched earth
-Reports in the Media about SMIC being “Blacklisted”

It has been widely reported that SMIC will be added to the US “Blacklist”… Read More


China Semiconductor Bond Bust!

China Semiconductor Bond Bust!
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2020 at 10:00 am

China Semiconductor Bond Bust

– Tsinghua $198M Bond Bust
– Good for memory: Samsung Micron LG Toshiba –
– Not good for chip equipment
– Could China Credit Crunch hit more than foundry embargo?
– Damage to China memory positive for other memory makers
– Not good for chip equip if customers can’t get money

China’s… Read More


Is Apple the Most Valuable Semiconductor Company in the World?

Is Apple the Most Valuable Semiconductor Company in the World?
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2020 at 6:00 am

Apple M1

– The new M1 chip unveils previously hidden asset
– Could/should Apple sell semiconductors?
– Are servers next?
– The M1 chip appears to be a rousing success and the beginning of a new era

Essentially 100% of all early reports on the performance of the M1 chip have come back with stellar reviews. Great performance… Read More


2021 will be the year of DRAM!

2021 will be the year of DRAM!
by Robert Maire on 11-15-2020 at 6:00 am

Robert Maire Bloomberg

2020 has been a NAND growth year-2021 will be the year of DRAM. While foundry logic has gotten all the credit in 2020 the reality is that NAND has been up 2X in 2020 for semiconductor equipment provider Applied Materials (AMAT). It is expected that NAND will be flat in 2021 while DRAM will take over the growth slot with foundry/logic … Read More


Post Election Fallout-Let the Chips Fall / Rise Where They May

Post Election Fallout-Let the Chips Fall / Rise Where They May
by Robert Maire on 11-09-2020 at 10:00 am

US China Trade War
  • Changing US administration likely positive for chips & tech
  • Stepping back from the brink of a potential ugly trade war
  • Likely increased Covid/tech spend- War with Big Tech is over
  • Tech & Chips had a lot riding on the elections outcome

As compared to previous presidential elections, this one likely has much more impact on… Read More


Downplaying SMIC – Uplaying TSMC

Downplaying SMIC – Uplaying TSMC
by Robert Maire on 11-01-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC China TSMC
  • KLAC sports solid QTR & Guide- Foundry & Logic drivers
  • Management remains dismissive of SMIC embargo
  • Execution & financials are solid but macro headwinds remain
  • Nice September Quarter

KLA reported revenue of $1.54B and Non GAAP EPS of $3.03 versus street expectations of $1.49B and EPS of $2.77. Guidance is for revenues… Read More


Coronavirus Remains Good for Semiconductors but not China

Coronavirus Remains Good for Semiconductors but not China
by Robert Maire on 10-24-2020 at 6:00 am

COVID Semiconductors
  • LCRX puts up a solid QTR and slightly soft guidance
  • China Concerns weigh on future but COVID remains driver
  • Memory spend could be better & help offset China
Solid September Quarter

Lam reported Non GAAP EPS of $5.67 versus $5.19 street and Revenues of $3.18B which was $70M better than street expectations. Lam obviously does … Read More


Is Intel Losing its Memory?

Is Intel Losing its Memory?
by Robert Maire on 10-19-2020 at 12:00 pm

Intel SK Hynix NAND
  • It’s reported that Intel is selling its NAND ops to SK Hynix
  • Would likely get Intel out of a tough & distracting market
  • Is Intel abandoning China? Like Intel’s sale of XPoint to Micron

Getting out of NAND makes sense
The memory market is very tough, competitive and worst of all, very cyclical. Unless you have an iron… Read More