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LRCX weak miss results and guide Supply chain worse than expected and longer to fix

LRCX weak miss results and guide Supply chain worse than expected and longer to fix
by Robert Maire on 04-23-2022 at 6:00 am

Lamb to the Slaughter LRCX

-Lam missed on both top & bottom line due to supply chain
-Previous guide was “overly optimistic” about fixing issues
-Demand is great but doesn’t matter if you can’t serve it
-We remain concerned about ability to fix issues in near term.

A miss on numbers- supply issues will persist

Lam reported Revenues… Read More


Chip Enabler and Bottleneck ASML

Chip Enabler and Bottleneck ASML
by Robert Maire on 04-22-2022 at 6:00 am

ASML Zeiss SemiWiki

-ASML reported an “in line” Q1- Orders remain super strong
-Ongoing supply chain issues will limit growth and upside
-ASML targets 2025 for supply fixes- We are not so sure
-Intel, TSMC, Samsung won’t be able to build all fabs they plan

ASML has “In linesh” Q1, orders still off the charts

ASML reported… Read More


DUV, EUV now PUV Next gen Litho and Materials Shortages worsen supply chain

DUV, EUV now PUV Next gen Litho and Materials Shortages worsen supply chain
by Robert Maire on 04-01-2022 at 8:00 am

EUV DUV Lithography

-New PUV light source will push litho into Angstrom Era
-Rare earth elements shortages add to supply chain woes
-Could strategic wafer reserve releases lower memory pricing
-Can we cut off/turn off Russian access to chip equipment?

DUV, EUV and now “PUV” to become next generation lithography

Lithography is the locomotive… Read More


AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022

AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2022 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials

-Production constraints push backlog up $1.3B to $8B
-Looks like $100B in WFE 2022 VS $80B in 2021
-Almost sold out for 2022- Could lead to continued growth 2023
-Insp/metrology up 68% Y/Y- Expect steady growth in 2022

Can’t keep up with demand….

Revenue came in at $6.27B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.89. A very slight beat of … Read More


Intel buys Tower – Best way to become foundry is to buy one

Intel buys Tower – Best way to become foundry is to buy one
by Robert Maire on 02-15-2022 at 10:00 am

Intel Tower Semiconductor Acquisition

-Intel jumpstarts foundry model with Tower semi buy @$54B Gets complementary tech to round out offerings
-Approval based on satisfying China’s needs as well
-Margin concerns overblown- Will it be allowed to flourish?

Intel pays up to get foundry and technology….

Intel announced a $5.4B acquisition of Tower Semiconductor… Read More


KLAC- Great quarter and year – March Q is turning point of supply chain problem

KLAC- Great quarter and year – March Q is turning point of supply chain problem
by Robert Maire on 01-30-2022 at 10:00 am

KLAC Foundry Logic

-KLAC – great QTR & calendar year but supply chain impacted
-Management feels supply chain to improve after March Q
-Demand remains strong, driven by foundry/logic
-Process management is next best place in industry after litho

Great end to calendar year

KLA reported revenues of $2.53B with non GAAP EPS of $5.59 nicely… Read More


LRCX- Supply Chain Catches up with Lam- Gets worse before better- Demand solid

LRCX- Supply Chain Catches up with Lam- Gets worse before better- Demand solid
by Robert Maire on 01-30-2022 at 6:00 am

Lam Research

-Supply chain issues finally catch up to Lam- Ongoing issue
-Problem from one main supplier to spread to more
-Causes low December Quarter and soft guide for March
-Quarters could be lumpy due to differed & revenue push outs

Lam Stews over supply Chain Issues

It sucks when you have all the demand in the world but can’t build… Read More


ASML Too Much Demand Plus Intel and High NA

ASML Too Much Demand Plus Intel and High NA
by Robert Maire on 01-23-2022 at 6:00 am

ASML High NA Intel

Too much demand- A “good” problem-Managing supply & capacity-Intel & Hi NA

ASML great Q4 results-Demand off charts-Supply constrained
-Dealing with chain issues, putting out fires, expediting
-Looking forward to next gen High NA in 2024/2025
-Intel’s order doesn’t give advantage,… Read More


Forty Four Billion Reasons Why TSMC Remains Dominant

Forty Four Billion Reasons Why TSMC Remains Dominant
by Robert Maire on 01-20-2022 at 6:00 am

Forty Four Billion Reasons Why TSMC Remains Dominant

-Chips for America is better than nothing, but not much
TSMC $40-44B Capex crushes competition (Intel & Samsung)
-Additional efforts other than handouts are necessary
-Could/should TSMC be “adopted” as a US company?

Competition can’t keep up with $40-$44B of Capex

TSMC’s recent announcement… Read More


“Too Big To Fail Two” – Could chip failure take down tech & entire economy?

“Too Big To Fail Two” – Could chip failure take down tech & entire economy?
by Robert Maire on 12-19-2021 at 6:00 am

Semiconductors too big to fail

-Chips enable tech sector which underpins entire economy
-Is the US chip sector “Too Big To Fail”?
-If US chip industry fails, does tech & everything else follow?
-How chip/Taiwan crisis compares to 2008 financial meltdown

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times

We find it an incredible juxtaposition… Read More