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Who will dominate quantum computing and at what levels?

A

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
What companies do readers feel will dominate the different areas of quantum computing from memory to chips to software to entire ecosystems? Any thoughts or comments appreciated. Any thoughts of quantum computing dealing with advanced automation and robotics also appreciated.
 
user nl said:
Who knows, here some current players:
https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/...aps-and-predictions-of-major-quantum-players/

The current "hype" seems to be a little on to attach/involve your quantum computing company to AI.

If you want to get a quick overview of some of the quantum compute companies and how NVIDIA is keeping more and more contact with the quantum compute community see this session at GTC2025:
Click to expand...
Thanks for the excellent information and references, it's greatly appreciated. I have found TSM, MU and AMAT are all working in this area.
 
Thank for @user nl excellent references.

Given Matt Swayne, May 16, 2025 (https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/…) said “Although companies are working hard to deliver on their roadmaps, the challenges they face are daunting. Quantum computing remains in its early stages, with significant hurdles in hardware, software, and scalability (e.g. decoherence and error rates).” I do agree with what @user nl mentioned, “NVIDIA is increasingly engaging with the quantum computing community.” If you're interested in knowing more about challenges involved, I've shared my techno-science analysis on LinkedIn below.

Feel free to check it out and let me know your thoughts if any!

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mick...p&rcm=ACoAAAQaIqABKUSzMiNyzculPH1_iM2I-9qQ7Hg
 
June 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM GMT+2

Nvidia’s Huang Sees Quantum Computing Reaching Inflection Point

Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said Wednesday that quantum computing is reaching an inflection point and will be powerful enough in the coming years to help “solve some interesting problems” globally.
Quantum computing, which technology companies have been developing for decades, is set to take off with systems rapidly becoming “more robust, higher performance and more resilient,” Huang said during a keynote speech at a company event being held jointly with the VivaTech 2025 conference in Paris.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-11/nvidia-s-huang-sees-quantum-computing-reaching-inflection-point?srnd=homepage-europe
 
Hard to predict societies full benefit of investments in Science & Technology in the short run, only that it pays off in the long run. No judgement about quantum computing nor fusion research, by me!

The Chinese keep holding the long view: Zuchongzhi 3.0: https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.134.090601


Consider Faraday's inventions around 1830, it took 50 years before society used electricity to light a bulb! The 20th century is called the century of the electron for a reason (think electrification of society, invention of transitor, semiconductors!):

Near the end of his career, Faraday proposed that electromagnetic forces extended into the empty space around the conductor.[62] This idea was rejected by his fellow scientists, and Faraday did not live to see the eventual acceptance of his proposition by the scientific community. It would be another half a century before electricity was used in technology, with the West End's Savoy Theatre, fitted with the incandescent light bulb developed by Sir Joseph Swan, the first public building in the world to be lit by electricity.[64][65] As recorded by the Royal Institution, "Faraday invented the generator in 1831 but it took nearly 50 years before all the technology, including Joseph Swan's incandescent filament light bulbs used here, came into common use".[66]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Faraday
 
blueone said:
With the possible exception of fusion power generation, I can't think of another field where so much is invested to achieve so little in so long a time.
Click to expand...
Seems it has been a simple idea that Quantum advantage is the claim that a quantum computer can perform a few "specific" tasks much faster than the most powerful non-quantum, or classical, computer. Despite the excitement mentioned by Jensen Huang's remarks at the GTC Paris developer conference signaled a more optimistic outlook compared to his earlier comments, quantum computing still faces known hurdles:

Error Rates: Current quantum computers struggle with stability and accuracy.
Scalability: Mass adoption requires overcoming hardware limitations while scaling up.
Market Volatility: Quantum stocks tend to be highly speculative, reacting to news.

Huang’s comments have certainly reignited investor enthusiasm, but the industry still has technical and commercial hurdles to clear before HQC (e.g. Hybrid QC, potentially linked to his strategic vision based on my private info.) becomes mainstream.
 
Mickey said:
Seems it has been a simple idea that Quantum advantage is the claim that a quantum computer can perform a few "specific" tasks much faster than the most powerful non-quantum, or classical, computer. Despite the excitement mentioned by Jensen Huang's remarks at the GTC Paris developer conference signaled a more optimistic outlook compared to his earlier comments, quantum computing still faces known hurdles:
Click to expand...

Do not underestimate the curiosity of humans. Science & Technology have a long track record of pleasant surprises. From my own field, when Maiman demonstrated the first laser in May 1960 (featured in the NYT and many other news papers) it was said "The laser is a solution looking for a problem".

Fast forward 65 years, our global society in the 21st century would come to a standstill without lasers, SemiWiki as well 🤣. Give Science, R&D some time and be humble in fast judgments. Predicting the (lack of) pace and applications of new technology is so hard. Which hurdles will be easy, which ones are more difficult, and which ones we haven't even seen yet, the future will tell.

Jensen Huang seems to be just catching up on the world of Quantum Compute, and wanting to put his finger prints on this emerging field.


https://www.optica-opn.org/home/art...atures/how_the_laser_found_problems_to_solve/

While some initially wondered about practical applications for the laser—an invention born out of basic research—within a few decades after its first appearance, it was offering solutions from high-speed printing to crystal-clear music.

After developing the maser in 1954 to provide a new millimeter-wave source for the US Navy, Charles Townes wondered what would happen if the amplification of stimulated emission were extended to the much higher frequencies of light. Others joined his quest and soon found out. At the Hughes Research Laboratory (HRL), USA, Theodore Maiman demonstrated the first pulsed solid-state laser on 16 May 1960. Seven months later, Ali Javan, William Bennett and Donald Herriott of Bell Laboratories, USA, made the first continuous-wave gas laser. Many more variations on the laser theme would follow.

Naturally, all wondered what they could do with their new inventions. Maiman’s job at Hughes was to think of new projects. By the time he gave his first scientific talk on the laser, at a 12 October 1960 meeting of The Optical Society (now Optica) in Boston, USA, he had begun to work on laser radar for the US Air Force. Bell Labs, whose parent company was in the business of communications, hauled a replica of Maiman’s laser to the top of a radar tower to see if its red pulses could reach another tower, 25 miles away.

Yet practical applications were not obvious to Irnee D’Haenens, Maiman’s young assistant, who—partly in jest—said, “The laser is a solution looking for a problem.”
 
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blueone said:
With the possible exception of fusion power generation, I can't think of another field where so much is invested to achieve so little in so long a time.
Click to expand...
Any thoughts on the timeline for quantum computing to be proven in the lab and go into commercial use?
 
Arthur Hanson said:
Any thoughts on the timeline for quantum computing to be proven in the lab and go into commercial use?
Click to expand...
On a very small scale, quantum computing, in the form of quantum annealing, is already in limited commercial and research use. D-Wave, a Canadian public company listed on NASDAQ, has deployed quantum annealing systems in multiple sites, D-Wave has recently added their own clouding computing service for these systems.


Quantum annealing is used to solve optimization problems, which are commercially important. D-Wave has also claimed quantum supremacy (meaning it can solve certain computing problems which classical computers cannot solve in practical time limits, or at all) for a limited number of problems, though there's still controversy about the efficacy of the results.

siliconangle.com

D-Wave claims to have achieved 'quantum supremacy' at last, but others disagree - SiliconANGLE

D-Wave claims to have achieved 'quantum supremacy' at last, but others disagree - SiliconANGLE
siliconangle.com siliconangle.com

Personally, I think the industry is being overly optimistic about when practical commercial quantum computers will be available for more general purpose problems, but I'm not a quantum computing expert by any means. QC still seems to be a field where it takes deep knowledge of physics to really understand the practicality of an implementation, so I tend to discount any analysis not written by a PhD physicist with a research background in the field.
 
Could quantum computing be a case where the technologies before it are feeding the progress at an ever-increasing rate as those technologies feeding it increase in power and utility at an ever increasing rate itself?
 
Arthur Hanson said:
Could quantum computing be a case where the technologies before it are feeding the progress at an ever-increasing rate as those technologies feeding it increase in power and utility at an ever increasing rate itself?
Click to expand...
I doubt it. QC has some unique problems, like qubit coherence and error correction (e.g. surface codes), which don't have analogs in semiconductor transistors.
 
blueone said:
I doubt it. QC has some unique problems, like qubit coherence and error correction (e.g. surface codes), which don't have analogs in semiconductor transistors.
Click to expand...
Thanks, any additional input on your views is deeply appreciated. I highly respect your valuable and knowledgeable input
 
blueone said:
On a very small scale, quantum computing, in the form of quantum annealing, is already in limited commercial and research use. D-Wave, a Canadian public company listed on NASDAQ, has deployed quantum annealing systems in multiple sites, D-Wave has recently added their own clouding computing service for these systems.


Quantum annealing is used to solve optimization problems, which are commercially important. D-Wave has also claimed quantum supremacy (meaning it can solve certain computing problems which classical computers cannot solve in practical time limits, or at all) for a limited number of problems, though there's still controversy about the efficacy of the results.

siliconangle.com

D-Wave claims to have achieved 'quantum supremacy' at last, but others disagree - SiliconANGLE

D-Wave claims to have achieved 'quantum supremacy' at last, but others disagree - SiliconANGLE
siliconangle.com siliconangle.com

Personally, I think the industry is being overly optimistic about when practical commercial quantum computers will be available for more general purpose problems, but I'm not a quantum computing expert by any means. QC still seems to be a field where it takes deep knowledge of physics to really understand the practicality of an implementation, so I tend to discount any analysis not written by a PhD physicist with a research background in the field.
Click to expand...
thanks
 
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