Intel and the EUV Shortage

In my “The EUV Divide and Intel Foundry Services” article available here, I discussed the looming EUV shortage. Two days ago, Intel announced their first EUV tool installed at their new Fab 34 in Ireland is a tool they moved from Oregon. This is another indication of the scarcity of EUV tools.

I have been tracking EUV system production at ASML to-date and forecasted output looking forward. I have also been looking at fabs that have been built and equipped and fab announcements to estimate the future requirement for EUV tools.

My approach is as follows:

• List out each EUV capable fab by company with process type/node and capacity by year. I estimate how many EUV exposures are required for each process and convert this to an EUV layer count forecast by year (exposures x capacity).
• For each year I look at the type(s) of EUV tools ASML produces and estimate the throughput by tool type for logic and memory processes.
• Outset the required tools by time to account for the time between a tool delivery and the tool being in production.

Some notes about demand:

• Intel currently has 3 development fabs phases that are EUV capable and 1 EUV capable production fab although only the development fab has EUV tools installed. Intel is building 8 more EUV capable production fabs.
• Micron Technology has announced they are pulling in EUV from the one delta node to one gamma. Micron’s Fab 16-A3 in Taiwan is under construction to support EUV.
• Nanya has talked about implementing EUV.
• SK Hynix is in production of one alpha DRAM using EUV for approximately 5 layers and have placed a large EUV tool order with ASML.
• Samsung is using EUV for 7nm and 5nm logic and ramping up 3nm. Samsung also has 1z DRAM in production with 1 EUV layer and 1 alpha ramping up with 5 EUV layers. Fabs in Hwaseong and Pyeongtaek have EUV tools with significant expansion in Pyeongtaek underway and the planned Austin logic fab will be EUV.
• TSMC has fab 15 phases 5, 6, and 7 running 7nm EUV processes. Fab 18 phase 1, 2, and 3, are running 5nm with EUV. 5nm capacity ended 2021 at 120k wpm and has been projected to reach 240k wpm by 2024. Fab 21 in Arizona will add an additional 20k wpm of 5nm capacity. 3nm is ramping in Fab 18 phases 4, 5, and 6 and is projected to be a bigger node than 5nm. Fab 20 phases 1, 2, 3, and 4, are in the planning stages for 2nm and another 2nm site is being discussed.

Based on all of these fabs and our estimated timing and capacity we get figure 1.

Figure 1. EUV Supply and Demand.

 Figure 1 leads to a couple of key observations:

• There will be more demand for EUV tools than supply in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Our latest forecast is a shortage of 18 tools in 2022, 12 tools in 2023 and 20 tools in 2024.
• Looking at the logic companies where the bulk of EUV demand is, TSMC has the most EUV systems with roughly one half of the systems in the world, Samsung is next and then Intel. Of the three companies Intel will likely be the most constrained by the supply of EUV tools. It wasn’t that long ago that Intel was pushing out EUV tool orders, likely a mistake they wish they could take back.

In summary, over at least the next three years, leading edge EUV based capacity will be constrained by the scarcity of EUV tools with Intel likely to be hardest hit.

Also read:

Can Intel Catch TSMC in 2025?

The EUV Divide and Intel Foundry Services

Samsung Keynote at IEDM