hist78
Well-known member
My assumptions and method:
Conclusion:
I multiplied the 0.65 million 12-inch wafers by 2 to arrive at 1.3 million wafers. This should mostly account for the quantities I underestimated or didn’t include in the calculation.
My estimate for Intel’s total wafer production in 2024 is between 0.65 million and 1.3 million 12-inch wafers, under the best assumptions for Intel.
In comparison, TSMC produced 12.9 million 12-inch–equivalent wafers (published in TSMC 2024 Annual Report) across its 6, 8, and 12-inch fabs in 2024, with the majority being 12-inch. This means Intel’s wafer output volume is far smaller than TSMC’s. TSMC’s 12-inch wafer output is probably 6 to 8 times greater, or even more, than Intel’s.
Please feel free to adjust it using your own numbers or by changing the calculation methods. I look forward to your comments.
- 1. Server outsourcing volume – Assume Intel has very limited outsourcing of server products.
- 2. Wafer outsourcing ratio – Intel CFO David Zinsner stated that Intel’s goal is to keep no more than 30% of wafer needs outsourced. Since Intel did not publish exact outsourcing figures for 2024, I assume the rate was 15%.
- 2. Server configuration – While many servers may use a single CPU, I calculated based on 2 CPUs per server to provide the largest and most favorable quantity estimate for Intel.
- 3. Market share – Intel and AMD’s market shares, as well as the overall x86 server share, were taken from various news reports. These numbers may be somewhat high or low, but I intentionally selected values favorable to Intel to produce a best case scenario estimate.
- 4. Die per wafer estimates – Intel manufactures many different processors, varying in die size and packaging technologies (chiplets vs. monolithic). The dies per wafer figures I used are rough estimates, leaning toward assumptions that increase Intel’s possible wafer produced.
Conclusion:
I multiplied the 0.65 million 12-inch wafers by 2 to arrive at 1.3 million wafers. This should mostly account for the quantities I underestimated or didn’t include in the calculation.
My estimate for Intel’s total wafer production in 2024 is between 0.65 million and 1.3 million 12-inch wafers, under the best assumptions for Intel.
In comparison, TSMC produced 12.9 million 12-inch–equivalent wafers (published in TSMC 2024 Annual Report) across its 6, 8, and 12-inch fabs in 2024, with the majority being 12-inch. This means Intel’s wafer output volume is far smaller than TSMC’s. TSMC’s 12-inch wafer output is probably 6 to 8 times greater, or even more, than Intel’s.
Please feel free to adjust it using your own numbers or by changing the calculation methods. I look forward to your comments.
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