The Recovery has Started and it’s off to a Great Start!

The Recovery has Started and it’s off to a Great Start!
by Malcolm Penn on 08-11-2023 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor Recovery 2023

August’s WSTS Blue Book showed Q2-2023 sales rebounding strongly, up 4.2 percent vs. Q1, heralding the end of the downturn and welcome news for the beleaguered chip industry.

The really good news, however, was that the downturn bottomed one quarter earlier than previously anticipated. This pull-forward only added a modest US$11… Read More


The Billion Dollar Question – Single or Double Digit Semiconductor Decline

The Billion Dollar Question – Single or Double Digit Semiconductor Decline
by Malcolm Penn on 03-03-2023 at 6:00 am

Market Forecasts Feb 2023

In 2021, we shocked the industry with our predictions of a double-digit ‘supercycle’ in 2022, followed by a crash in 2023. Despite industry skepticism, bordering on outright disbelief, our predictions were on point, based on decades of semiconductor experience and data analysis.

Now, as the industry finally accepts the impending… Read More


Enjoy the Super-Cycle it’ll Crash in 2023!

Enjoy the Super-Cycle it’ll Crash in 2023!
by Malcolm Penn on 09-23-2022 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor Crash 2022

At our January 2021 industry update webinar, 20 months ago, we forecast “There’s no tight capacity relief before 2022 at the earliest” whilst simultaneously cautioning “Enjoy the super-cycle … it’ll crash in 2023!”  At the time, we were dismissed as being ‘ever optimistic’ for the first prognosis and ‘losing the plot’ for the … Read More


The Semiconductor Market Downturn Has Started

The Semiconductor Market Downturn Has Started
by Malcolm Penn on 08-07-2022 at 6:00 am

Growth Rate Trends

What we alone said would surely happen, but what was widely denied by the industry, was confirmed with June’s WSTS Blue Book report.  Right on cue with our December 2021 forecast, the current semiconductor Super Cycle is finally drawing to a close and the 17th market downturn has now well and truly started.

The Macro Evidence

At the… Read More


The Roots Of Silicon Valley

The Roots Of Silicon Valley
by Malcolm Penn on 02-09-2022 at 6:00 am

The Roots of Silicon Valley

 

The transistor was successfully demonstrated on December 23, 1947, at Bell Laboratories in Murray Hill, New Jersey, the research arm of American Telephone and Telegraph (AT&T).  The three individuals credited with its invention were William (Bill) Shockley Jr., the department head and group leader, John Bardeen… Read More


The Chip Market / China Conundrum

The Chip Market / China Conundrum
by Malcolm Penn on 02-28-2021 at 2:00 pm

China Taiwan Chip Dilema

In its February 20, 2021 edition, the Economist published an article entitled “How to kill a democracy; China faces fateful choices, especially involving Taiwan”.  It went on to quote “To many Chinese, the island’s conquest is a sacred national mission” as well as a by-line “America is losing its ability to deter a Chinese attack… Read More