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Semiconductor Industry Update: Fair Winds and Following Seas!

Semiconductor Industry Update: Fair Winds and Following Seas!
by Daniel Nenni on 09-16-2024 at 10:00 am

Malcolm Penn Four Horsemen

Malcolm Penn did a great job on his semiconductor update call. This is about the whole semiconductor industry (Logic and Memory) versus what I track which is mostly logic based on design starts and the foundries. Malcolm has been doing this a lot longer than I have and he has a proven methodology, but even then, semiconductors are … Read More


The Recovery has Started and it’s off to a Great Start!

The Recovery has Started and it’s off to a Great Start!
by Malcolm Penn on 08-11-2023 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor Recovery 2023

August’s WSTS Blue Book showed Q2-2023 sales rebounding strongly, up 4.2 percent vs. Q1, heralding the end of the downturn and welcome news for the beleaguered chip industry.

The really good news, however, was that the downturn bottomed one quarter earlier than previously anticipated. This pull-forward only added a modest US$11… Read More


The Billion Dollar Question – Single or Double Digit Semiconductor Decline

The Billion Dollar Question – Single or Double Digit Semiconductor Decline
by Malcolm Penn on 03-03-2023 at 6:00 am

Market Forecasts Feb 2023

In 2021, we shocked the industry with our predictions of a double-digit ‘supercycle’ in 2022, followed by a crash in 2023. Despite industry skepticism, bordering on outright disbelief, our predictions were on point, based on decades of semiconductor experience and data analysis.

Now, as the industry finally accepts the impending… Read More


The Semiconductor Market Downturn Has Started

The Semiconductor Market Downturn Has Started
by Malcolm Penn on 08-07-2022 at 6:00 am

Growth Rate Trends

What we alone said would surely happen, but what was widely denied by the industry, was confirmed with June’s WSTS Blue Book report.  Right on cue with our December 2021 forecast, the current semiconductor Super Cycle is finally drawing to a close and the 17th market downturn has now well and truly started.

The Macro Evidence

At the… Read More


Semiconductor Crash Update

Semiconductor Crash Update
by Daniel Nenni on 05-12-2022 at 10:00 am

Semiconductors are Capturing Electronics

Earlier this year semiconductor oracle Malcom Penn did his 2022 forecast which I covered here: Are We Headed for a Semiconductor Crash? The big difference with this update is the black economic clouds that are looming which may again highlight Malcolm’s forecasting prowess. I spent an hour with Malcolm and company on his Zoom cast… Read More


The Roots Of Silicon Valley

The Roots Of Silicon Valley
by Malcolm Penn on 02-09-2022 at 6:00 am

The Roots of Silicon Valley

 

The transistor was successfully demonstrated on December 23, 1947, at Bell Laboratories in Murray Hill, New Jersey, the research arm of American Telephone and Telegraph (AT&T).  The three individuals credited with its invention were William (Bill) Shockley Jr., the department head and group leader, John Bardeen… Read More


Are We Headed for a Semiconductor Crash?

Are We Headed for a Semiconductor Crash?
by Daniel Nenni on 02-02-2022 at 6:00 am

Malcolm Penn Webinar 2022

COVID was certainly a black swan event but semiconductors have seen similar events over the past 50 years, some of which I have experienced personally. The Dot-com bubble comes to mind but there were others. The question is will history repeat itself and the answer, according to Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons, is yes.

Malcolm is… Read More


The Semiconductor Shortage False Narrative!

The Semiconductor Shortage False Narrative!
by Daniel Nenni on 10-01-2021 at 6:00 am

Port of Oakland

The semiconductor shortage has really caught the world’s attention. Friends and family who don’t really know what a semiconductor is now ask me to explain it. This is great news for the semiconductor industry for different reasons which I will discuss here. We can also discuss the downside risks.

First, let’s look at a bit of semiconductor… Read More