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At first glance, the headline annualized semiconductor market growth numbers remain strong, with HBM Memory leading the way and AI GPUs continuing to sell in a frenzy. However, a deeper dive into the details reveals a much bleaker picture. Inventory levels remain stubbornly high, and mainstream capacity utilization rates are… Read More
Malcolm Penn did a great job on his semiconductor update call. This is about the whole semiconductor industry (Logic and Memory) versus what I track which is mostly logic based on design starts and the foundries. Malcolm has been doing this a lot longer than I have and he has a proven methodology, but even then, semiconductors are … Read More
August’s WSTS Blue Book showed Q2-2023 sales rebounding strongly, up 4.2 percent vs. Q1, heralding the end of the downturn and welcome news for the beleaguered chip industry.
The really good news, however, was that the downturn bottomed one quarter earlier than previously anticipated. This pull-forward only added a modest US$11… Read More
In 2021, we shocked the industry with our predictions of a double-digit ‘supercycle’ in 2022, followed by a crash in 2023. Despite industry skepticism, bordering on outright disbelief, our predictions were on point, based on decades of semiconductor experience and data analysis.
Now, as the industry finally accepts the impending… Read More
What we alone said would surely happen, but what was widely denied by the industry, was confirmed with June’s WSTS Blue Book report. Right on cue with our December 2021 forecast, the current semiconductor Super Cycle is finally drawing to a close and the 17th market downturn has now well and truly started.
The Macro Evidence
At the… Read More
Earlier this year semiconductor oracle Malcom Penn did his 2022 forecast which I covered here: Are We Headed for a Semiconductor Crash? The big difference with this update is the black economic clouds that are looming which may again highlight Malcolm’s forecasting prowess. I spent an hour with Malcolm and company on his Zoom cast… Read More
The transistor was successfully demonstrated on December 23, 1947, at Bell Laboratories in Murray Hill, New Jersey, the research arm of American Telephone and Telegraph (AT&T). The three individuals credited with its invention were William (Bill) Shockley Jr., the department head and group leader, John Bardeen… Read More
COVID was certainly a black swan event but semiconductors have seen similar events over the past 50 years, some of which I have experienced personally. The Dot-com bubble comes to mind but there were others. The question is will history repeat itself and the answer, according to Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons, is yes.
Malcolm is… Read More
The semiconductor shortage has really caught the world’s attention. Friends and family who don’t really know what a semiconductor is now ask me to explain it. This is great news for the semiconductor industry for different reasons which I will discuss here. We can also discuss the downside risks.
First, let’s look at a bit of semiconductor… Read More
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