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Mobility is Dead; Long Live Mobility

Mobility is Dead; Long Live Mobility
by Roger C. Lanctot on 11-24-2022 at 10:00 am

Mobility is Dead Long Live Mobility

What the hell is going on in the automotive industry. Every automotive executive is talking mobility, mobility, mobility while simultaneously divesting every mobility asset that has been amassed over the past 10 years of surging mobility mania.

The latest spinoff of a mobility asset was Volkswagen’s sale of its WeShare car sharing operation to Berlin-based Miles Mobility. The move was a bit of a shock given Volkswagen’s build up of autonomous vehicle technology with its Ford-Argo.ai joint venture; its Moia demand-responsive transit solution; and even its acquisition of Europcar car rental operations.

According to the terms of the MILES deal:

  • Volkswagen WeShare has been acquired by MILES Mobility and will be integrated into the car sharing company’s portfolio
  • WeShare customers will “benefit” from offerings in eight German cities
  • Volkswagen will deliver 10,000 all-electric vehicles to MILES from 2023
  • MILES Mobility will be integrated into Volkswagen’s mobility platform

Volkswagen looked ready to bring its unique brand of mobility to the world on a scale comparable to its world-leading vehicle sales. But, no, Volkswagen stepped back from its Argo.ai self-driving venture with Ford Motor Company and now WeShare has been banished leaving Moia and Europcar and ambitious mobility visions in tatters.

To be fair, VW’s WeShare was up against both MILES, an aggressively expanding upstart, and SIXT a global car rental leader with overwhelming resources, infrastructure, and marketing muscle. Maybe it’s not so much of a shock that VW folded its mobility tent. An important wrinkle, of course, is the fact that VW was up against B2C partners with greater expertise and ability to communicate and interact directly with consumers – not a strength at VW, a traditional car making B2B operator selling cars through dealers.

Volkswagen is not alone. The company has simply joined the conga line of car companies shimmying their way out of mobility from BMW and Mercedes Benz selling Share Now to Stellantis to GM’s laying off Maven car sharing. (The Maven brand lives on, kind of.)

But the list of mobility ventures shuttered or sold off is long – maybe too long – to list here. One of the most recent was Ford’s off-loading of its TransLoc demand responsive transit operation to Modaxo earlier this year. TransLoc was a large, nationwide operation managing hundreds of millions of rides for hundreds of operators – but Ford turned in a different direction.

Ford has been a leader in abandoning mobility acquisitions, start ups, and trial programs. Nothing has seemed to stick – which has been the way at most auto makers.

The post-mortems on these ventures usually reveals a reassessment by bean counters proclaiming the obvious – that the operations were unprofitable. The pulling of the plug comes next.

And then there were four or maybe more? Renault (Mobilize), Stellantis (FreeToMove), Hyundai (Mocean), and Toyota (Kinto) remain committed to the mobility mantra with operations in various locations around the world including car sharing, ride hailing, rental and subscription-based mobility operations.

Chinese car makers and their partners, perhaps reflecting China’s car sharing leadership, have been stepping into the mobility void with car sharing operations of their own and subscription-based vehicle access offerings. Nio Motors and Lynk & Co. are the most prominent here, but they have company.

Subscriptions are rapidly emerging as the go to solution, displacing “mobility” as the dominant modality.  Here, too, car makers have launched and crashed multiple subscription-based solutions, but the concept has caught on with third parties like Autonomy and FINN and dozens of others.

The automobile subscription appears to be an idea whose time has come. Cars are in short supply and interest rates are on the rise and the workplace is mobile – with multiple rounds of layoffs hitting the news.

Subscriptions eliminate tortuous vehicle acquisition paperwork at the dealership and tend to sidestep credit checks and most obviously, the long-term commitment to a particular automobile. Speed and simplicity are driving this trend.

The even more fundamental attraction derives from the need among car makers to capture vehicle revenue on an ongoing basis – along with the need to manage battery reverse logistics at the vehicle’s end of use. Car subscription terms and conditions still may look onerous to some – too expensive or restrictive. But car makers and third parties are steadily reducing their rates, easing their terms, and expanding the range of available vehicles.

Strategy Analytics has identified 46 individual car subscription operators including dozens of startups. Many of these operators are focusing on electric vehicles – the price tags of which have placed them beyond the means of many.

Current economic conditions appear to favor car subscriptions as they simultaneously discourage vehicle acquisitions. Subscriptions are clearly a bright light in a bleak mobility landscape.

Also Read:

Requiem for a Self-Driving Prophet

Musk: The Post-Truth Messiah

Flash Memory Market Ushered in Fierce Competition with the Digitalization of Electric Vehicles


AMAT and Semitool Deja Vu all over again

AMAT and Semitool Deja Vu all over again
by Robert Maire on 11-24-2022 at 6:00 am

Lam SemiWiki SemiSysco

-Lam/Semisysco is a repeat of AMAT/Semitool
-Adds wet processing that larger companies lack
-Semisysco tools amazingly similar to those made by Semitool
-Lightning strikes twice for Ray Thompson

Deja Vu all over again

In a clear example of history repeating itself, Lam Research bought Semisysco, a company founded by Ray Thompson, in 2012, 3 years after he sold his first company, SemiTool to Applied Materials, in 2009 for $364M.

The tools made by Semisysco look amazingly similar, although updated versions, of the wet processing tools made by SemiTool back in 2009. These tools include an updated version of an SRD (spin rinser dryer) that has been around for decades as well as batch and single wafer wet processing tools.

Wet processing is always the overlooked stepchild

Wet cleaning and processing has always played second fiddle to plasma based dep and etch tools which are the rock stars of the front end process after the lead singer of litho. Tokyo Electron does track tools which spin on photoresist but cleaning and plating are different. Semitool was also first into copper plating years ago when copper took over from aluminum. Wet processing still plays a critical role but the large companies seem to view it as lesser technology and thus do not focus on it. The fact that large companies did not focus on it gave an opportunity to smart entrepreneurs like Ray Thompson to take up the slack.

Ray Thompson does it again

We didn’t think that Ray Thompson would sit around and enjoy the coffee shop (Sykes) he bought in Kalispell Montana after selling SemiTool to Applied in 2009. He founded TG Tech and through that also founded Semisysco in 2012 along with Herbet Oetzlinger who also was a long time employee of Semitool. Herbert is a close member of the SemiTool “family”.

Semisysco adds to prior purchase of SEZ

Lam had purchased wet processing company SEZ of Villach Austria in 2007 for $447M. Coincidentally Semisysco is in both Kalispell Montana, (Rays home town) as well as Villach Austria. It funny how coincidences go…..

More coincidences

In another strange family twist/coincidence, David Lam (not the same David Lam that founded Lam Research but close) is on the board of Semisysco representing a VC firm, Atlantic Bridge, which is a shareholder in Semisysco.

Easy acquisition for Lam

This is a very easy, convenient acquisition for Lam as it can slide into the former SEZ group. It gives them more capabilities in various processes but it is not much of a needle mover in terms of overall revenue

The stocks

We remain cautious/negative on the stocks and feel the run up of the entire group off of ASML’s news was unfounded as it was unique to ASML and not an indicator that the down cycle is anywhere near over. While the downcycle will not be as bad as downcycles past , it is none the less going to take revenues down about 20% or so in 2024 so not to be so easily dismissed as over and done with

In our channel checks it is abundantly clear that orders are being both canceled as well as delayed and equipment makers are quickly rearranging the order book.

Semiconductor makers , with the clear exception of TSMC, are also negatively impacted.

Global Foundries announced a restructuring and layoff as its clear they will see a downturn in business as customers flow back to their preferred fab, TSMC.

In our view only TSMC and ASML are the most immune to the downturn. TSMC will keep its fabs full by taking back overflow customers who had to go to second and third tier foundries when TSMC turned them away.

ASML has an order book so long and strong they can’t increase production fast enough due to the Zeiss limitation. Other companies not so much…..Lam, AMAT & TEL and even KLAC will see weaker business over time, especially into 2024.

The dead cat bounce of stocks is from the belief that the worst news is over (which it may be) but numbers still have to come down as the flow of news over the next year will remain generally negative.

About Semiconductor Advisors LLC‌

Semiconductor Advisors is an RIA (a Registered Investment Advisor),
specializing in technology companies with particular emphasis on semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies. We have been covering the space longer and been involved with more transactions than any other financial professional in the space. We provide research, consulting and advisory services on strategic and financial matters to both industry participants as well as investors. We offer expert, intelligent, balanced research and advice. Our opinions are very direct and honest and offer an unbiased view as compared to other sources.

Also Read:

KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact

LRCX down from here – 2023 down more than 20% due to China and Downcycle

Is ASML Immune from China Impact?


Podcast EP125: How NXP is Helping to Build Software-Defined Vehicles

Podcast EP125: How NXP is Helping to Build Software-Defined Vehicles
by Daniel Nenni on 11-23-2022 at 10:00 am

Dan is joined by Brian Carlson, Brian is responsible for global marketing of automotive processors and solutions at NXP Semiconductors. He focuses on enabling new innovations that can create new automotive industry business opportunities. He has over 30 years’ experience driving leading-edge, computing and communications products, with roles in product development, technology marketing, product management, and business development. He served as vice-chairman on the MIPI Alliance board of directors where he led the mobile charge into adjacent markets including automotive and IoT.

Brian provides an overview of NXP’s automotive products and how they help OEMs build software-defined vehicles. A simplified modular control architecture delivers a broad range of capabilities to improve the performance, comfort and control of EVs. Brian provides details about NXP’s motor control products, among others and how these products work together to enhance the user experience.

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in these podcasts belong solely to the speaker, and not to the speaker’s employer, organization, committee or any other group or individual.


Micron- “The first cut isn’t the deepest”- Chops production & forecast further

Micron- “The first cut isn’t the deepest”- Chops production & forecast further
by Robert Maire on 11-23-2022 at 6:00 am

Micron SemiWiki 2022

-Micron announces more production cuts & lower forecast
-DRAM will be negative- NAND sounds barely flat (for now)
-Capital spending to be cut to near zero- essential only
-Will the rest of the industry follow suit?

“The first cut isn’t the deepest”
(Apologies to Rod Stewart)

When Micron first announced weakness in the memory market many months ago we suggested that capex cuts would be 50% or more as they were holding product off market to prop up pricing. We were roundly criticized for being too aggressive, but now its clear we were not even aggressive enough. When we are all said and done between 50% cuts this year and another 30% next year, Micron’s capex spend will all but go to zero.

The company said that DRAM growth will be negative which is fancy speak for down. NAND doesn’t sound much better with likely single digit growth if that.

Technology will grow production with zero capex

With advances in technology to new Moore’s Law nodes , bit growth in production will continue through technology advancement alone without new equipment or facilities. Basically with zero capex spend , supply will continue to grow in the face of declining demand (not good).

This fact is also the same with every other memory maker from Samsung on down, so we will be floating in excess memory chips for a long time until demand picks up to absorb the excess supply brought about by technology advancements.

OPEC and memory producers are the same

We have written many times about the fact that memory makers are like oil producers in the OPEC consortium. They produce a commodity product which is highly dependent upon the supply demand balance. If demand slows they all have to have restraint and cut production proportionately or the whole will suffer.

Micron had better hope that Samsung shows restraint and also cuts spend so the flood of memory chips doesn’t turn into a Tsunami. In the past Samsung and other aggressive memory manufacturers have cranked production in weak conditions to try to push smaller players out which is in large part why the US went from 7 memory makers to just one remaining, Micron.

Micron is showing proper restraint but cutting production but will the other members of the memory makers OPEC also cut or decide its an opportunity?

Oversupply will persist throughout 2024 probably into 2025

Given the cuts that Micron is talking about and the collapse of pricing we would expect 2024 to be a significantly down year with 2025 also potentially in question. With bit output continuing to grow with technology alone, its also clear that the down turn in capex to buy new equipment and facilities will be much longer , perhaps well into 2025. This is not unusual as many prior down cycles have been multi year downturns lasting as long as up turns

Dead cat bounces and false starts

We had been rather surprised that chip stocks had rebounded so quickly as many investors thought the down cycle was over and done in a week or two…. that’s not how it works.

Stocks rebounded as some inexperienced analysts pronounced that the worst was over and it was time to go out and buy the semi stocks again. WRONG!
We have repeated many times, as recently as yesterday , that we had not hit bottom yet and that there is still downside to go through and we won’t see upside for quite some time. Micron’s announcement makes that crystal clear…..we would not be surprised to start to see job cuts out of Micron following Intel & GloFo’s lead. Its going to be uglier.

Micron’s projects will be delayed and/or canceled

Micron’s new fab in Boise will clearly be delayed as need for additional capacity is nonexistent over the next several years. The fab after Boise in New York will clearly be pushed back even further.

We find it rather amusing that Micron could have a dog & pony show with the president in New York only a few short weeks ago, with the knowledge that the industry conditions were worsening and further cuts were needed. Duplicity.

The stocks

Obviously numbers need to come down a lot on Micron. The probability of red ink is increasing significantly. The obvious question is how low for how long? A lot of that depends on Samsung and other players in the memory market and how cooperative memory makers are. If Samsung takes a scorched earth strategy it could be ugly for a long while. Much will also revolve around this years holiday sales. If consumers buy sweaters so they can turn down the heat instead of a new DRAM and NAND laden IPhone then the semi industry will have a longer downturn.

This is kind of like Punxsutawney Pete telling us if spring is around the corner

Memory, because its a commodity, always suffers more and longer than IDM’s or foundries. We see no reason to go out and buy the stock of Micron any time soon as we will not know the full extent of the down turn for quite some time and will likely get more bad news.

The obvious collateral damage is on the semiconductor equipment makers, already reeling from being cut off from a significant portion of the China market on top of a down cycle….this is just more bad news and confirmation of worst case fears.

In our view its likely that Samsung will behave rationally and cut capex significantly as well, at least on the memory side. Their projects in Texas are likely safe for now as they are logic and not memory (as far as we know), same for Intel in Ohio and TSMC in Arizona.

We see zero impact on ASML as memory makers are not first in line for EUV. As usual, LRCX is the most memory exposed of the equipment makers especially to Micron and Samsung. We will see who else cuts.

“The first cut is the deepest Baby, I know the first cut is the deepest”

Rod Stewart

About Semiconductor Advisors LLC
Semiconductor Advisors is an RIA (a Registered Investment Advisor),
specializing in technology companies with particular emphasis on semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies. We have been covering the space longer and been involved with more transactions than any other financial professional in the space. We provide research, consulting and advisory services on strategic and financial matters to both industry participants as well as investors. We offer expert, intelligent, balanced research and advice. Our opinions are very direct and honest and offer an unbiased view as compared to other sources.

Also Read:

Micron- “The first cut isn’t the deepest”- Chops production & forecast further

KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact

LRCX down from here – 2023 down more than 20% due to China and Downcycle


A Hardware IDE for VS Code Fans

A Hardware IDE for VS Code Fans
by Daniel Nenni on 11-22-2022 at 10:00 am

VS Code Remote SSH Article Diagram

A few times a year, I check in with AMIQ EDA co-founder Cristian Amitroaie to see what’s new with their company and the integrated development environment (IDE) market for hardware design and verification. Usually he suggests a topic for us to discuss, but this time I specifically wanted to learn more about the version of their Design and Verification Tools (DVT) IDE built on the Visual Studio Code (VS Code) platform. They announced this product earlier this year, and my colleague Kalar wrote about it in some detail.

Microsoft developed VS Code, a language-aware source code editor with a streamlined graphical user interface (GUI), and released the source code on GitHub in 2015. VS Code is customizable for language support, editor theme, keyboard shortcuts, user preferences, and more. Because of its flexibility and availability, a broad ecosystem of extensions and themes is available. It is not surprising that hardware design and verification engineers would want support for their languages in an IDE based on VS Code.

I asked Cristian why they felt the need to develop DVT IDE for VS Code when they’ve already had the very successful DVT Eclipse IDE since 2008. AMIQ EDA pretty much invented the whole concept of hardware IDEs, and they have lots of happy users, several of whom I have interviewed in past blog posts. DVT Eclipse IDE is based on the Eclipse Platform, which is also very popular, widely adopted, and supported by a wide range of plugins. I wondered whether there is some deficiency in Eclipse that caused them to add support for VS Code.

Cristian explained that it all comes down to user preference. There is a generation of engineers who have had exposure to other IDEs based on VS Code and are familiar with its look and feel. There are many other engineers who know Eclipse better and have no interest in switching. As the industry’s leader in hardware IDEs, Cristian and his team felt that it made perfect sense to support both underlying platforms. Users are free to mix and match however they want, at no extra cost.

In my long experience in the industry, I have seen that both hardware and software engineers are reluctant to switch GUIs or editors. I am old enough to remember when we did most of our work using plain-text editors in full-screen mode on ASCII terminals. There were two primary choices: vi and Emacs. Users were surprisingly passionate about which they preferred, to such an extent that observers often referred to the “religion” of Emacs or vi. Perhaps the strong feelings about Eclipse and VS Code are just a new manifestation of an old feud.

Cristian said they are seeing lots of interest in DVT IDE for VS Code, as expected, but that they are not observing any significant migration of DVT Eclipse IDE users. Engineers sometimes try the other version out of curiosity, especially since it’s easy to do so using the same project settings and scripts.  However, for the most part they prefer either VS Code or Eclipse and they choose their hardware IDE accordingly.  AMIQ EDA is happy to support both.

I wondered whether there were any technical reasons to choose one version of DVT IDE over the other. Cristian said that they have worked very hard to make the two implementations as equivalent in functionality as possible. They have a common engine behind both interfaces to ensure consistency in code compilation and analysis. However, there are some differences in the user experience due to the different technologies used by the underlying platforms.

I found this intriguing, and asked Cristian for some examples. He said that Eclipse has better support for dedicated views of the code, such as hierarchy browsers and schematics. Eclipse also provides a way to show “breadcrumbs” as the user traverses the design and verification hierarchy. This makes it easy to know the location in the hierarchy of the file being edited and to navigate to another location. These actions are possible in VS Code, but in a less intuitive way.

Cristian then made a deep dive into a capability that works much better in VS Code than in Eclipse: the ability to open a secure shell (SSH) to a remote machine from within the IDE. Users can connect over Remote SSH from their laptop or desktop, for example a Windows PC or Apple, to a workstation  at the office. They can remotely browse folders, edit files, save results, etc. as if the files were local. This provides better performance than running an interactive GUI over a virtual network computing (VNC) connection.

The VS Code Remote SSH capability also supports the use of remote machines for compiling and analyzing the source code. Users can spawn a process on a dedicated machine, on a server farm, or in the cloud. This allows the use of inexpensive desktops without the computational power and memory needed for high performance on large designs. Users can also open a terminal to a remote machine to run simulations and other tasks. Again, the performance is better than with a VNC and the users feel as if they are doing everything locally.

Cristian closed our conversation by reminding me that AMIQ EDA is all about user choice. They support an incredible range of language and format standards, including SystemVerilog, Verilog, Verilog-AMS, VHDL, e, Property Specification Language (PSL), Portable Stimulus Standard (PSS), Unified Power Format (UPF), and the Universal Verification Methodology (UVM). Offering their DVT IDE based on either Eclipse or VS Code is the next logical step in their openness.

Also Read:

Using an IDE to Accelerate Hardware Language Learning

AMIQ EDA Adds Support for Visual Studio Code to DVT IDE Family

Automated Documentation of Space-Borne FPGA Designs


Calibre: Early Design LVS and ERC Checking gets Interesting

Calibre: Early Design LVS and ERC Checking gets Interesting
by Peter Bennet on 11-22-2022 at 6:00 am

fig1

The last thing you want when taping out a design is to hit large numbers of violations in signoff checks that could have been flushed out and resolved in earlier flow iterations. For implementation flows (floorplanning, synthesis, place and route), it’s usual to do a lot of flow flushing work early in the design cycle and iteratively refine the design, constraints and flow settings to target a minimum TAT (turnaround time) pass through the final layout.

We need that same more iterative and interactive model for the signoff physical verification that has traditionally been done in batch mode on final designs. Increasing design and technology complexity are only making the circuit and physical verification tasks more challenging and time consuming. Design schedules and the need to work with designs with blocks in different design states force us to “shift left” more checks earlier in the design cycle.

While many layout-versus-schematic (LVS) circuit verification checks can be run earlier, running a full signoff set takes too long and includes thousands of transitory errors that will disappear in the final design and don’t need fixing – the run and debug time is excessive.

Siemens recognised the need for faster LVS iterations on dirty designs and identified the high impact errors that need cleaning in the early design stages. This led them to create Calibre nmLVS Recon (“Recon” is short for design reconnaissance here), initially supporting short isolation checks. That’s now been extended to support more checks.

A new Siemens EDA white paper describes how Calibre’s nmLVS Recon tool lets you target ERC and soft connection checks on incomplete and dirty designs while improving verification productivity and TAT.

Figure 1 shows this new functionality:

This is a tool usage model that supports early stage design LVS and allows engineers to focus on the core of real and high impact design errors in the earlier design stages while avoiding trying to fix the thousands of transitory errors that will disappear as the design matures – avoidable engineering analysis and fixing time must not become the bottleneck.

The focus is on fast TAT for the targeted checks: runs can be started off existing LVS DBs and focused on only the required checks, giving dramatically faster LVS iterations on dirty designs.

Rule file execution with selective device for path checking (pathchk) for ERC checks speeds up what can be a slow step for partially completed designs, while Enhanced LVS path-finding capability and debugging accelerates problem diagnosis and fixing. Starting ERC runs from previously generated LVS DBs means already completed steps need not be re-run and gives an efficient, incremental flow. Path isolation and enhanced reporting eliminate manual ERC debug steps.

Figure 2 shows the improvement in TAT possible when running standalone ERC checks from a reused DB:

Soft connection checks are supported with the Calibre nmLVS Recon Softchk function with interactive debugging and improved debug to eliminate some previously manual steps. Rule decks can now be partitioned by layers of interest to save run time and memory and by layer groups for parallel processing. Again, we can reuse LVS databases from earlier LVS, extraction or Softchk runs to get faster incremental runs and skipping already completed checks like connectivity. The paper also notes that DB reuse could also be used in signoff to re-run only a single check.

Debug productivity is critical here and Calibre’s RVE debug interface (there’s a White Paper for this too) provides both interactive layout edits and fixes and immediate verification (Figure 5).

These new additions to Calibre nmLVS Recon usefully extend the range of early stage design LVS checking and Siemens continues to identify more of what it calls such “easy button” functionality so more verification can be run as early and efficiently as possible.

Find out more in the original white paper here:

Achieve dramatic productivity and turnaround time improvements in early design electrical rule checking

https://resources.sw.siemens.com/en-US/white-paper-achieve-dramatic-productivity-and-turnaround-time-improvements-in-early

[also earlier White Papers on Calibre nmLVS Recon]

Accelerate time to market with Calibre nmLVS-Recon technology: A new paradigm for circuit verification
https://resources.sw.siemens.com/en-US/white-paper-accelerate-time-to-market-with-calibre-nmlvs-recon-technology-a-new-paradigm

Increase LVS verification productivity in early design cycles
https://resources.sw.siemens.com/en-US/white-paper-increase-lvs-verification-productivity-in-early-design-cycles

Siemens also has an interesting YouTube channel for Calibre:

https://www.youtube.com/user/ICNanometerDesign/featured?app=desktop

Also Read:

Architectural Planning of 3D IC

Pushing Acceleration to the Edge

Why Use PADS Professional Premium for Electronic Design


Podcast EP124: A Look at the Design and Simulation Side of Keysight with Niels Faché

Podcast EP124: A Look at the Design and Simulation Side of Keysight with Niels Faché
by Daniel Nenni on 11-21-2022 at 10:00 am

Dan is joined by Niels Faché, vice president and general manager, Design and Simulation at Keysight Technologies. Niels is responsible for Keysight’s design and simulation portfolio.

Dan explores the high-speed, high-frequency design and simulation capabilities of Keysight Technologies with Niels. A history of the products, markets served, the open architecture used, ecosystem relationships and how this business and the test and measurement business at Keysight work together are all discussed.

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in these podcasts belong solely to the speaker, and not to the speaker’s employer, organization, committee or any other group or individual.


AMAT – Backlog buffers downcycle- still fighting shortages – WFE down in 2023

AMAT – Backlog buffers downcycle- still fighting shortages – WFE down in 2023
by Robert Maire on 11-21-2022 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials

-AMAT put up good numbers despite slowing cycle
-Growing backlog will help them manage declining orders
-Parts shortages still haunt but improving for 2-4 more quarters
-2023 will be down- too early to tell how much- 2024 who knows

Good numbers but already adjusted for China

Applied put up revenue of $6.7B and EPS of $2.03 versus already lowered estimates on a pre-announcement of $6.45B and $1.73EPS. Guidance is for $6.7B +-$400M and EPS of $1.93 +- $0.18 versus current street estimates of $6.45B and $1.83. So guide is somewhat flattish and likely dependent upon how many parts they can get so they can start to use up the backlog.

China negative hit of $2.5B next year hoping to mitigate

Applied has an initial estimate of a $2.5B revenue hot to 2023 from the China restrictions. They think they can work that down to $1.5B to $2.0B through licensing and help from customers. Its clearly too early to tell how quickly licenses will come from the US government and how many they will grant.

Management won’t estimate 2023 revenue other than down

Management didn’t want to offer up an estimate of how far down WFE is likely to fall in 2023. Our guess is that there are far too many moving parts and unknowns to come up with even an educated guess other than to say its obviously going to be down but no guess as to how far. Management also seemed to demur of whether 2024 will be up or down…. its just unclear. Others we have heard from and spoken to seem to be talking about 20% down in 2023 but we think that’s a best guess at this point.

Memory obviously much weaker than foundry logic

Its no surprise give Microns recent announcement for worsening business that memory is way worse than foundry/logic. Sounds like foundry/logic may be flattish to slightly up while memory is almost solely responsible for all the downturn. We haven’t heard a lot from the other memory makers but that is likely another shoe to drop on worsening memory spend.

Still supply limited by parts shortages

Applied’s backlog continues to grow as they are still having issues getting enough parts to get tools out the door. Management suggested we may see another 2 to 4 quarters of parts issues before we get back to a more normalized environment. Applied has clearly been one of the harder hit with parts shortages as we believe their prior relationships with suppliers was more adversarial. It does sound like progress is being made but obviously not fast enough.

Service business helps even more

Applied service business continues to help smooth revenue out as the more steady business continues to grow with the number of tools in the field.
While an increasing contributor it still can’t make up for memory’s down cycle.

The stocks

The stock of Applied will obviously bounce as it could have been worse but wasn’t. Investors have forgotten already that the results are measured against a pre-announcement and already reduced estimates so its pretty easy to meet them as the estimates were only recently announced. All this still doesn’t change the fact that there is a whole year of downside in front of us and numbers will certainly have more to come down. Applied is in good shape relative to Lam given a smaller memory mix but far from as immune as ASML is with is infinite backlog.

We still see no good reasons to go out and buy the stock as it will tread water within a range depending on which way the wind blows that day. We need to wait until we see at least some formation of a bottom. Right now we continue to stare into a great unknown.

About Semiconductor Advisors LLC‌

Semiconductor Advisors is an RIA (a Registered Investment Advisor),
specializing in technology companies with particular emphasis on semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies. We have been covering the space longer and been involved with more transactions than any other financial professional in the space. We provide research, consulting and advisory services on strategic and financial matters to both industry participants as well as investors. We offer expert, intelligent, balanced research and advice. Our opinions are very direct and honest and offer an unbiased view as compared to other sources.

Also read:

KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact

LRCX down from here – 2023 down more than 20% due to China and Downcycle

Is ASML Immune from China Impact?


Semiconductors Down in 2nd Half 2022

Semiconductors Down in 2nd Half 2022
by Bill Jewell on 11-20-2022 at 4:00 pm

Top Semiconductor Revenue 2H 2022

The semiconductor market declined 6.3% in 3Q 2022 from 2Q 2022, according to WSTS. Based on the outlook for 4Q 2022, the second half of 2022 will be down over 10% from the first half of 2022. The 2H 2022 decline will be the largest half-year decline since a 21% drop in the first half of 2009 versus the second half of 2008 during the great recession.

The revenue change of the top semiconductor companies in 3Q 2022 versus 2Q 2022 was mixed. Nine of the fifteen companies reported (or guided) a revenue increase in 3Q 2022, with the highest from Infineon at 15% and STMicroelectronics at 13%. Six of the companies reported a revenue decline, with the worst declines of 19% to 23% from memory companies Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology. The 3Q 2022 revenue declines in memory dropped the ranking of SK Hynix from 3 to 5 and dropped Micron Technology from 5 to 6. Samsung managed to maintain the number 1 ranking over Intel. Qualcomm moved up to number 3 and Broadcom became number 4.

The revenue outlook for 4Q 2022 is generally bleak, especially for memory. Micron Technology’s guidance was a 36% decline in 4Q 2022 from 3Q 2022. Micron plans to reduce its wafer starts by about 20%. Kioxia plans to cut its wafer starts by about 30%. Samsung and SK Hynix did not give specific revenue guidance, but both cited weak demand and inventory adjustments as factors impacting revenue in the current quarter. Among non-memory companies, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments and MediaTek all expect double-digit revenue drops in 4Q 2022. Weak overall demand and inventory adjustments by customers were blamed for the grim outlook by most companies. Automotive seems to be the only healthy segment. Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics, Infineon and NXP all stated growth in growth in the automotive sector is largely or partially offsetting declines in other sectors. Of the ten companies providing guidance for 4Q 2022, only Nvidia (+1.2%) and STMicroelectronics (+1.8%) are expecting increased revenues. The weighted average revenue change from the nine non-memory companies providing guidance is a 9% decline in 4Q 2022 from 3Q 2022.

The weakness in the key end markets of PCs and smartphones is apparent from the 3Q 2022 shipment estimates from IDC. PCs were down 15% from a year ago and smartphones were down 9.7%. Before the 3Q 2022 data was available, IDC was expecting year 2022 shipments of PCs to decline 12.8% and smartphones to decline 6.5%. Based on the latest shipment data, we at Semiconductor Intelligence are now forecasting a 15% decline in PCs and a 10% decline in smartphones for year 2022.

With the 6.3% semiconductor market decline in 3Q 2022 and the gloomy outlook for 4Q 2022, only forecasts done after the 3Q 2022 WSTS data release are relevant. November forecasts for 2022 are 8.1% from the Cowan LRA Model, 3% from IC Insights and 1.5% from us at Semiconductor Intelligence. 2023 will certainly see a decline in the semiconductor market. IC Insights is projecting a 6% drop while we at Semiconductor Intelligence project a 14% decline. Interestingly, back in August, Future Horizons forecast a 22% decline in 2023. The WSTS committee met last week for its fall forecast which should be released within the next two weeks. It will be interesting to see how much it changes from the WSTS August forecast update of 13.9% growth in 2023 and 4.6% growth in 2023.

Our Semiconductor Intelligence forecast for a 14% decline in 2023 would be the largest drop in the semiconductor market since a 32% decline in 2001, 21 years ago. In the last 50 years, the market has seen double digit declines in only three years: 1975, 1985 and 2001. Our 2023 forecast is based on the following assumptions:

Inventory corrections are resolved over the next two to three quarters

PCs and smartphones return to pre-pandemic trends by mid-2023

No global recession in 2022 or 2023

If any of the above assumptions fail to materialize, the semiconductor downturn could continue throughout the quarters of 2023 and result in an annual decline of over 20%.

Semiconductor Intelligence is a consulting firm providing market analysis, market insights and company analysis for anyone involved in the semiconductor industry – manufacturers, designers, foundries, suppliers, users or investors. Please contact me if you would like further information.

Also Read:

Continued Electronics Decline

Semiconductor Decline in 2023

Automotive Semiconductor Shortage Over?


Podcast EP123: The Breadth and Power of Ceva’s IP and Platforms

Podcast EP123: The Breadth and Power of Ceva’s IP and Platforms
by Daniel Nenni on 11-18-2022 at 10:00 am

Dan is joined by Nir Shapira, business development director in CEVA Mobile Broadband BU. Nir has been in the communication industry for more than 25 years. He has made significant contributions to standardizations, notably 802.11, and has dozens of patents in the field of communications.

Nir discusses the impact Ceva IP and associated platforms are having on the development of advanced technologies such as 5G RAN. Several development scenarios utilizing Ceva products are discussed in detail.

Learn more about CEVA’s solutions: www.ceva-dsp.com

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in these podcasts belong solely to the speaker, and not to the speaker’s employer, organization, committee or any other group or individual.