– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery
Tag: lrcx
The Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment
- China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
- Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
- Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
- The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment
Quarterly reports from… Read More
LRCX- QTR OK but outlook mixed- At half of revs, China is huge risk- Memory poor
- LRCX has OK QTR but “challenging outlook” – Memory still sucks
- China at 48% is a huge risk given potential of more sanctions
- Leading & trailing logic both poor- no recovery in sight yet
- Memory spending at historical lows for NAND
Quarter came in OK but outlook seems weak and unclear
Revenues came in at $3.48B… Read More
Samsung Ugly as Expected Profits off 69% Winning a Game of CAPEX Chicken
-Samsung off the same chip cliff as Micron- “No skid marks”
-Samsung may be winning at a game of “Capex Chicken”
-No expectation of recovery any time soon – Consumers weak
-2023 a write off- Recovery will be delayed if spending isn’t
Samsungs worst quarter in 8 years no surprise
Samsung pre… Read More
KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact
-KLA great quarter & guide as backlog mutes China/Economy
-Patterning starts to catch up to wafer inspection outperform
-China impact is limited to leading edge & specific customers
-Cuts in memory capex less impactful on KLA
KLAC reports strong quarter and good guide
Revenues were $2.7B with EPS of $7.06 versus street… Read More
KLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China
-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning
Deja Vue, all over again- Great QTR & Guide amid caution & softening
KLAC reported… Read More
LRCX weak miss results and guide Supply chain worse than expected and longer to fix
-Lam missed on both top & bottom line due to supply chain
-Previous guide was “overly optimistic” about fixing issues
-Demand is great but doesn’t matter if you can’t serve it
-We remain concerned about ability to fix issues in near term.
A miss on numbers- supply issues will persist
Lam reported Revenues… Read More
Downplaying SMIC – Uplaying TSMC
- KLAC sports solid QTR & Guide- Foundry & Logic drivers
- Management remains dismissive of SMIC embargo
- Execution & financials are solid but macro headwinds remain
- Nice September Quarter
KLA reported revenue of $1.54B and Non GAAP EPS of $3.03 versus street expectations of $1.49B and EPS of $2.77. Guidance is for revenues… Read More
Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade Back on!
Blocking chip sales to Huawei back on front burner
Covid19 & China Trade are equally bad
Long lived Uncertainty could “plague” industry sales going forward
Political Predictability worse than Disease Predictability
Reuters broke a story today that the proposed licensing of chip equipment to prevent “bad… Read More
ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk
- Is ASML first clandestine shot in US war on China chips?
- Will the action extend further to other chip equip cos?
- China chip cold conflict warming up?
It would appear from a Reuters report yesterday that a behind the scenes “cold war” between the US and China in the chip business has just been exposed and has the potential… Read More