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-Samsung off the same chip cliff as Micron- “No skid marks”
-Samsung may be winning at a game of “Capex Chicken”
-No expectation of recovery any time soon – Consumers weak
-2023 a write off- Recovery will be delayed if spending isn’t
Samsungs worst quarter in 8 years no surprise
Samsung pre… Read More
-KLA great quarter & guide as backlog mutes China/Economy
-Patterning starts to catch up to wafer inspection outperform
-China impact is limited to leading edge & specific customers
-Cuts in memory capex less impactful on KLA
KLAC reports strong quarter and good guide
Revenues were $2.7B with EPS of $7.06 versus street… Read More
-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning
Deja Vue, all over again- Great QTR & Guide amid caution & softening
KLAC reported… Read More
-Lam missed on both top & bottom line due to supply chain
-Previous guide was “overly optimistic” about fixing issues
-Demand is great but doesn’t matter if you can’t serve it
-We remain concerned about ability to fix issues in near term.
A miss on numbers- supply issues will persist
Lam reported Revenues… Read More
- KLAC sports solid QTR & Guide- Foundry & Logic drivers
- Management remains dismissive of SMIC embargo
- Execution & financials are solid but macro headwinds remain
- Nice September Quarter
KLA reported revenue of $1.54B and Non GAAP EPS of $3.03 versus street expectations of $1.49B and EPS of $2.77. Guidance is for revenues… Read More
Blocking chip sales to Huawei back on front burner
Covid19 & China Trade are equally bad
Long lived Uncertainty could “plague” industry sales going forward
Political Predictability worse than Disease Predictability
Reuters broke a story today that the proposed licensing of chip equipment to prevent “bad… Read More
- Is ASML first clandestine shot in US war on China chips?
- Will the action extend further to other chip equip cos?
- China chip cold conflict warming up?
It would appear from a Reuters report yesterday that a behind the scenes “cold war” between the US and China in the chip business has just been exposed and has the potential… Read More
A “Logic Lead” recovery confirmed- Memory still mired, 3400C = “Third times a charm”. EUV finally accelerates as all ducks now in a row.
ASML posted a good quarter with great orders and capped off with a strong outlook for the current quarter. Logic demand is sparking a recovery while memory remains essentially… Read More
We had warned in our May 10th note about the rare earth element risk. It is one of the few remaining leverage points that China has left that has a potentially strong impact on the US much similar to the US’s impact on Huawei and perhaps even worse. Cutting the US off from rare earth elements is clearly worse than cutting Huawei
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We attended the Needham Growth Conference which is one of the first conferences of the year and in the quiet period before most companies reported so even though there was no “official” comment from most companies on the quarter, the surrounding commentary spoke volumes:
- The down cycle (and everyone admits its a cycle
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