Samsung Ugly as Expected Profits off 69% Winning a Game of CAPEX Chicken

Samsung Ugly as Expected Profits off 69% Winning a Game of CAPEX Chicken
by Robert Maire on 01-09-2023 at 6:00 am

Samsung 2022

-Samsung off the same chip cliff as Micron- “No skid marks”
-Samsung may be winning at a game of “Capex Chicken”
-No expectation of recovery any time soon – Consumers weak
-2023 a write off- Recovery will be delayed if spending isn’t

Samsungs worst quarter in 8 years no surprise

Samsung pre… Read More


KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact

KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact
by Robert Maire on 10-30-2022 at 5:00 pm

KLA SemiWiki 2022

-KLA great quarter & guide as backlog mutes China/Economy
-Patterning starts to catch up to wafer inspection outperform
-China impact is limited to leading edge & specific customers
-Cuts in memory capex less impactful on KLA

KLAC reports strong quarter and good guide

Revenues were $2.7B with EPS of $7.06 versus street… Read More


KLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China

KLAC same triple threat headwinds Supply, Economy & China
by Robert Maire on 08-07-2022 at 10:00 am

KLA Tencor

-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning

Deja Vue, all over again- Great QTR & Guide amid caution & softening

KLAC reported… Read More


LRCX weak miss results and guide Supply chain worse than expected and longer to fix

LRCX weak miss results and guide Supply chain worse than expected and longer to fix
by Robert Maire on 04-23-2022 at 6:00 am

Lamb to the Slaughter LRCX

-Lam missed on both top & bottom line due to supply chain
-Previous guide was “overly optimistic” about fixing issues
-Demand is great but doesn’t matter if you can’t serve it
-We remain concerned about ability to fix issues in near term.

A miss on numbers- supply issues will persist

Lam reported Revenues… Read More


Downplaying SMIC – Uplaying TSMC

Downplaying SMIC – Uplaying TSMC
by Robert Maire on 11-01-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC China TSMC
  • KLAC sports solid QTR & Guide- Foundry & Logic drivers
  • Management remains dismissive of SMIC embargo
  • Execution & financials are solid but macro headwinds remain
  • Nice September Quarter

KLA reported revenue of $1.54B and Non GAAP EPS of $3.03 versus street expectations of $1.49B and EPS of $2.77. Guidance is for revenues… Read More


Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade Back on!

Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade Back on!
by Robert Maire on 03-29-2020 at 2:00 pm

US China Blockade


Blocking chip sales to Huawei back on front burner
Covid19 & China Trade are equally bad
Long lived Uncertainty could “plague” industry sales going forward
Political Predictability worse than Disease Predictability

Reuters broke a story today that the proposed licensing of chip equipment to prevent “bad… Read More


ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk

ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk
by Robert Maire on 01-10-2020 at 10:00 am

ASML China EUV
  • Is ASML first clandestine shot in US war on China chips?
  • Will the action extend further to other chip equip cos?
  • China chip cold conflict warming up?

It would appear from a Reuters report yesterday that a behind the scenes “cold war” between the US and China in the chip business has just been exposed and has the potential… Read More


Great, early signs of a recovery in logic, not memory

Great, early signs of a recovery in logic, not memory
by Robert Maire on 07-21-2019 at 12:00 pm

A “Logic Lead” recovery confirmed- Memory still mired, 3400C = “Third times a charm”. EUV finally accelerates as all ducks now in a row.

ASML posted a good quarter with great orders and capped off with a strong outlook for the current quarter.  Logic demand is sparking a recovery while memory remains essentially… Read More


Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war

Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war
by Robert Maire on 05-30-2019 at 5:00 am

We had warned in our May 10th note about the rare earth element risk.  It is one of the few remaining leverage points that China has left that has a potentially strong impact on the US much similar to the US’s impact on Huawei and perhaps even worse. Cutting the US off from rare earth elements is clearly worse than cutting Huawei
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Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019

Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-17-2019 at 12:00 pm

We attended the Needham Growth Conference which is one of the first conferences of the year and in the quiet period before most companies reported so even though there was no “official” comment from most companies on the quarter, the surrounding commentary spoke volumes:

  • The down cycle (and everyone admits its a cycle
Read More