Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war

Opening a new front in multi faceted trade war
by Robert Maire on 05-30-2019 at 5:00 am

We had warned in our May 10th note about the rare earth element risk.  It is one of the few remaining leverage points that China has left that has a potentially strong impact on the US much similar to the US’s impact on Huawei and perhaps even worse. Cutting the US off from rare earth elements is clearly worse than cutting Huawei
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Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019

Needham Growth Conference Notes 2019
by Robert Maire on 01-17-2019 at 12:00 pm

We attended the Needham Growth Conference which is one of the first conferences of the year and in the quiet period before most companies reported so even though there was no “official” comment from most companies on the quarter, the surrounding commentary spoke volumes:

  • The down cycle (and everyone admits its a cycle
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CAPEX Cuts and Microns Memory Markdown

CAPEX Cuts and Microns Memory Markdown
by Robert Maire on 12-21-2018 at 7:00 am

For those who have been paying any attention to the semiconductor industry its no surprise that memory demand and therefore pricing is down from its peak earlier in the year. Its not getting better any time fast.

After several strong years of demand and pricing, which was followed by enormous CAPEX spending we are seeing the standard… Read More


AMAT and the Jinhua Jinx!

AMAT and the Jinhua Jinx!
by Robert Maire on 11-18-2018 at 7:00 am

Applied Materials reported a just “in line” quarter but guidance was well below street expectation. AMAT reported EPS of $0.97 and revenues of $4.01B versus street of $0.97 and $4B. Guidance missed the mark by a wide margin with revs of $3.56 to $3.86 and EPS of $0.75 to $0.83 versus already reduced street expectations… Read More


ASML most immune to slow down due to lead times Not LRCX

ASML most immune to slow down due to lead times Not LRCX
by Robert Maire on 10-21-2018 at 7:00 am

ASML reported EUR2.78B in revenues with EUR2.08B in systems. 58% was for memory. EUV was EUR513M with 5 systems. Importantly orders were for EUR2.20B in systems at 64% memory and 5 EUV tools. This was likely better than expectations given the overall industry weakness. EPS of EUR1.60 was more or less in line with expectations. Guidance… Read More


More Negative Semiconductor News

More Negative Semiconductor News
by Robert Maire on 09-24-2018 at 7:00 am

The amount of negative news and information about the semiconductor industry seems to be increasing at a faster rate. Micron put up a better quarter than expected but more importantly guided less than expected. We are surprised that the street is surprised as the decline in memory pricing is well known and Micron has been clear about… Read More


Is the Q4 Bounce Back now a 2009 Recovery?

Is the Q4 Bounce Back now a 2009 Recovery?
by Robert Maire on 09-10-2018 at 7:00 am

Last week saw a unique confluence of events that continue the negative news flow in semicap following the story about GloFo. At a financial conference, Micron’s CFO said NAND prices were declining, this was on top of an analyst note in the morning about the same issue. Even though this should be no surprise as memory has had … Read More


KLAC gets an EUV Kicker

KLAC gets an EUV Kicker
by Robert Maire on 08-02-2018 at 7:00 am

KLAC put up a great quarter coming in at revenues of $1.07B and EPS of $2.22. Guidance is for $1.03B to $1.1B with EPS of $2 to $2.32. Both reported and guided were at the high end of the range and above consensus. We had suggested in our preview notes that KLAC would be the least impacted of the big three (AMAT, LRCX & KLAC) semi equipment… Read More


Samsung Memory is easy come easy go but for how low?

Samsung Memory is easy come easy go but for how low?
by Robert Maire on 07-29-2018 at 8:00 am

Lam Research (LRCX) reported a great June quarter coming in at $3.126B in revenues and $5.31 in EPS easily beating the street’s $3.06B and EPS of $4.94. However no one will care as guidance for the September quarter is for $2.3B in revs and EPS of $3.20, way, well below the already downward revised estimates of $2.77B and $3.88.… Read More


Chip Equipment where to from here?

Chip Equipment where to from here?
by Robert Maire on 05-20-2018 at 12:00 pm

We may know the top, do we know the bottom? What is the downside in NAND, DRAM, Foundry. Can China help or is risk worse than upside?

It would appear that our concerns in our preview piece prior to the AMAT call came true as the stock now has a “4” handle, NAND is in question and display is down.

However its not like business … Read More