Is the Q4 Bounce Back now a 2009 Recovery?

Is the Q4 Bounce Back now a 2009 Recovery?
by Robert Maire on 09-10-2018 at 7:00 am

Last week saw a unique confluence of events that continue the negative news flow in semicap following the story about GloFo. At a financial conference, Micron’s CFO said NAND prices were declining, this was on top of an analyst note in the morning about the same issue. Even though this should be no surprise as memory has had … Read More


KLAC gets an EUV Kicker

KLAC gets an EUV Kicker
by Robert Maire on 08-02-2018 at 7:00 am

KLAC put up a great quarter coming in at revenues of $1.07B and EPS of $2.22. Guidance is for $1.03B to $1.1B with EPS of $2 to $2.32. Both reported and guided were at the high end of the range and above consensus. We had suggested in our preview notes that KLAC would be the least impacted of the big three (AMAT, LRCX & KLAC) semi equipment… Read More


Samsung Memory is easy come easy go but for how low?

Samsung Memory is easy come easy go but for how low?
by Robert Maire on 07-29-2018 at 8:00 am

Lam Research (LRCX) reported a great June quarter coming in at $3.126B in revenues and $5.31 in EPS easily beating the street’s $3.06B and EPS of $4.94. However no one will care as guidance for the September quarter is for $2.3B in revs and EPS of $3.20, way, well below the already downward revised estimates of $2.77B and $3.88.… Read More


Chip Equipment where to from here?

Chip Equipment where to from here?
by Robert Maire on 05-20-2018 at 12:00 pm

We may know the top, do we know the bottom? What is the downside in NAND, DRAM, Foundry. Can China help or is risk worse than upside?

It would appear that our concerns in our preview piece prior to the AMAT call came true as the stock now has a “4” handle, NAND is in question and display is down.

However its not like business … Read More


Choosing the lesser of 2 evils EUV vs Multi Patterning!

Choosing the lesser of 2 evils EUV vs Multi Patterning!
by Robert Maire on 11-03-2017 at 12:00 pm

For Halloween this week we thought it would be appropriate to talk about things that strike fear into the hearts of semiconductor makers and process engineers toiling away in fabs. Do I want to do multi-patterning with the huge increase in complexity, number of steps, masks and tools or do I want to do EUV with unproven tools, unproven… Read More


The post election Semicap bubble just burst in one day

The post election Semicap bubble just burst in one day
by Robert Maire on 12-04-2016 at 12:00 pm

Back to a more normal reality… Market gets”De-Fanged”… Where to from here? The “Icarus” Effect… Much of the market, and especially Tech & “FANG” (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix & Google) stocks gave back most all of their post election day gains in one session.Read More


What’s the Intel Capex Outlook?

What’s the Intel Capex Outlook?
by Robert Maire on 10-23-2016 at 7:00 am

Intel has terrific QTR & slightly light guide Intel is recovering & transforming at the same time. Whats the Capex outlook? Impact on ASML KLAC LRCX?

Intel reported revenues of $15.78B and earnings of $0.80 for the quarter beating expectations and previous upward guidance. CCG (PCs) were up 21% Q/Q and 5% Y/Y. Data center… Read More


DOJ takes victory Lap in KLAC / LRCX deal post mortem (3 of 3)

DOJ takes victory Lap in KLAC / LRCX deal post mortem (3 of 3)
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2016 at 4:00 pm

The KLA deal died due to fox guarding the hen house.

Fox can’t guard Hen House…
In an industry where there are relatively few widget makers and only one, very dominant, widget inspector, the thought of one of the widget makers buying the most crucial widget inspector obviously would be anti-competitive. Not only would… Read More


KLAC & LRCX – Fall Out from the deal Falling Apart (1 of 3)

KLAC & LRCX – Fall Out from the deal Falling Apart (1 of 3)
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2016 at 7:00 am

The odds of deal completion has fallen to low levels. Whats the fallout on the companies and stocks? Is there life after a failed merger?

“A quagmire wrapped up inside an enigma” – LRCX & KLAC’s merger is the talk of the town, both in the semiconductor equipment industry as well as DOJ watchers in Washington… Read More


KLAC accelerates business into Q4 and where are we on the KLAM deal?

KLAC accelerates business into Q4 and where are we on the KLAM deal?
by Robert Maire on 08-09-2016 at 12:00 pm

While no one was really paying attention, and the company didn’t have an earnings call anyway, KLAC put up a strong beat. Revenues came in at $919M versus street of $842M and EPS came in at $1.77 easily beating $1.42 street.

However this was at the expense of the September quarter as it appears that business in the September quarter… Read More