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TSMC's revenue is up 12% for the first half of 2017 and full year guidance is 5-10%? That does not bode well for Apple in my opinion. I'm also wondering if TSMC ships chips to Apple (InFOs) versus wafers? That would delay revenue?
Daniel I think its nothing to worry. If we look at 2016 revenues by month July 2016 fell Y-o-Y versus July 2015 . Overall for year to date 2017 is up on revenues over 2016.
The revenues from Aug 2017 onwards are what I would be looking forward to. The revenues from Aug 2017 to H1 2018 will determine if Apple is on to another super-cycle with the launch of OLED iPhone.
TSMC's revenue is up 12% for the first half of 2017 and full year guidance is 5-10%? That does not bode well for Apple in my opinion. I'm also wondering if TSMC ships chips to Apple (InFOs) versus wafers? That would delay revenue?
We should also remember that QCOM (one of TSMC's largest customers) left TSMC at 14nm and is now in full (cost effective) production at Samsung with their SoCs and Modems. Which will not only eat into TSMCs / QCOM's 28nm installed base, it will displace TSMC 16nm SoCs from Apple, MediaTek, and others. QCOM is also in production (not cost effective yet) at Samsung 10nm. From what I was told Tier 2, 3, 4, etc... (China) smartphone vendors are now ramping 14nm phones.
I'm just not convinced TSMC 2017 growth is going to be in double digits like previous years.
TSMC's revenue is up 12% for the first half of 2017 and full year guidance is 5-10%? That does not bode well for Apple in my opinion. I'm also wondering if TSMC ships chips to Apple (InFOs) versus wafers? That would delay revenue?
TSMC's revenue is up 5% for H1 2017 versus H1 2016. So I don't know how you got 12%. If TSMC hits full year growth of 10% their H2 2017 revenues would be massive at 594963 millions of Taiwan dollars. I think it all comes down to Apple and how well their supply chain can churn out the normal iPhones and the OLED iPhone.
We should also remember that QCOM (one of TSMC's largest customers) left TSMC at 14nm and is now in full (cost effective) production at Samsung with their SoCs and Modems. Which will not only eat into TSMCs / QCOM's 28nm installed base, it will displace TSMC 16nm SoCs from Apple, MediaTek, and others. QCOM is also in production (not cost effective yet) at Samsung 10nm. From what I was told Tier 2, 3, 4, etc... (China) smartphone vendors are now ramping 14nm phones.
I'm just not convinced TSMC 2017 growth is going to be in double digits like previous years.
TSMC is now the exclusive supplier to Apple starting from the Apple A10 generation and for the foreseeable future. During the days when Qualcomm was at TSMC 28nm Apple was at Samsung 32nm/28nm. Now both companies have changed foundry partners but I think TSMC is benefiting far more from gaining Apple than losing Qualcomm. Apple is also bringing the new OLED iphone which should further spur sales growth. iPad seems to be recovering atleast in terms of unit sales from Apple's recent quarterly reports. Nvidia's growing at a crazy pace every quarter. With Volta Nvidia will keep growing at record pace. TSMC is well positioned for 2017 and future as they are the primary/majority supplier to Apple and Nvidia.
The ball is in Apple's court along with their supply chain. TSMC will churn out how many ever chips Apple wants. Anyway I think TSMC will do quite well this year. Looking ahead TSMC 7nm has a 9-12 month head start over the other foundries and I think they will dominate 7nm node with atleast 65% market share. I believe GF will come in 2nd and Samsung 3rd at 7nm.
The ball is in Apple's court along with their supply chain. TSMC will churn out how many ever chips Apple wants. Anyway I think TSMC will do quite well this year. Looking ahead TSMC 7nm has a 9-12 month head start over the other foundries and I think they will dominate 7nm node with at least 65% market share. I believe GF will come in 2nd and Samsung 3rd at 7nm.
Still digging into it with the fabless ecosystem and Apple chip supply chain........ but I think you may be right. Double digit growth for TSMC in 2017 and probably 2018.