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Will the Q1 Haircut become Covid-19 Crew Cut in Q2?

Will the Q1 Haircut become Covid-19 Crew Cut in Q2?
by Robert Maire on 03-16-2020 at 5:00 am

Corvid 19 Crew Cut Semiwiki
  • Corona impact growing exponentially in chip food chain
  • YMTC in Wuhan may be “patient zero”
  • Q1 revenue haircuts may turn into Q2 crewcuts
  • Working from home really doesn’t work

When does a haircut become a crew cut in revenues?
All the major semiconductor equipment makers took a significant haircut to their Q1… Read More


COVID-19 Collateral Chip Collision – Will Fabs & Foundries Flounder?

COVID-19 Collateral Chip Collision – Will Fabs & Foundries Flounder?
by Robert Maire on 03-05-2020 at 6:00 am

Corvid 19 SemiWiki

Corona Fab Impact –
lower production/raise prices
Chip production supply chain may break
It could temporarily fix memory oversupply
Could it risk the fall roll out of next Iphone

The ” Two week tango” – Waiting games at fabs
When a highly specialized piece of semiconductor equipment misbehaves to the… Read More


Coronavirus Chops SPIE Litho EUV Conference

Coronavirus Chops SPIE Litho EUV Conference
by Robert Maire on 03-01-2020 at 6:00 am

SPIE EUV 2020 Coronavirus

Corona Curtails already quiet SPIE Litho conference
Our best guess is that attendance was off by 30% from last years SPIE conference due to a lack of travelers from many Asian areas obviously out of Corona fear. Even Intel, which is a few miles away was a virtual no-show with a mass cancellation.

More importantly, virtually all after… Read More


China Chip Equip Embargo just got real

China Chip Equip Embargo just got real
by Robert Maire on 02-24-2020 at 10:00 am

Chip Embargo Just Got Real

Worst Case Scenario now possible!

  • Embargo could extend beyond China to Taiwan (TSMC)
  • Likely backs up ASML pressure & Huawei indictment
  • “Maximum Pressure” campaign similar to Iran
  • Not likely to go away through trade negotiations

US to restrict chip equipment sales to Huawei producers
The Wall Street Journal… Read More


Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks

Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks
by Robert Maire on 02-16-2020 at 6:00 am

Coronavirus Light SemiWiki

Very solid quarter driven by foundry/logic
AMAT reported a very solid quarter, beating the top end of guidance with foundry and logic being the primary drivers of spend. Revenues were $4.16B and EPS of $0.98 non-GAAP versus street of $4.11B and $0.93 EPS.

Guide not too wide… – $300M “Corona Cut”
More importantly,… Read More


Good December but March variable due to Coronavirus

Good December but March variable due to Coronavirus
by Robert Maire on 02-07-2020 at 10:00 am

Coronavirus
  • Trend remains positive for 2020 overall
  • New tools & EUV suggest better growth in 2020
  • Calendar 2019 ends on strong foundry note

KLAC reported revenues of $1.509B and EPS of $2.66 NonGAAP versus street of $1.48B and $2.58.  Foundry (TSMC) was obviously the big driver of the quarter and into 2020 as well.  Memory remains subdued… Read More


Logic and Memory Make for a Recovery

Logic and Memory Make for a Recovery
by Robert Maire on 02-03-2020 at 6:00 am

Lam Research 2020
  • LAM- “Logic And Memory” make for a recovery-NAND (Samsung) & Logic (TSMC) + China
  • Great Q4 Results & Q1 guide as memory restarts
  • Logic strength continues-China is crucial to growth
  • 2019 better than expected- 2020 WFE up about 5-8%

Lam reports nice finish to 2019 and start of 2020
The company reported revenues… Read More


ASML “A Swing to Memory Looms” Nice performance while awaiting Memory bounce

ASML “A Swing to Memory Looms” Nice performance while awaiting Memory bounce
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2020 at 6:00 am

ASML 2020 Logic Memory
  • Good Q4 & 2019 despite weak memory
  • 2020 will be up year but memory an unknown
  • EUV ramp is on track – no China or memory impact
ASML reports an “in line” Q4 despite industry weak 2019

ASML reported sales of 4B Euros and a nice gross margin of 48% resulting in 2.70 Euros per share in earnings.  Orders came in at 2.4B

Read More

Samsung spend is up but can it offest TSMC slowing?

Samsung spend is up but can it offest TSMC slowing?
by Robert Maire on 01-17-2020 at 6:00 am

TSMC Wafer

Samsung is warming up and spending again
Samsung gave its preliminary report for Q4 and it was well better than prior muted expectations. It doesn’t take long for Samsung’s business units to respond to business trends in either direction and we have already heard of increased spending plans on the part of Samsung.… Read More


ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk

ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk
by Robert Maire on 01-10-2020 at 10:00 am

ASML China EUV
  • Is ASML first clandestine shot in US war on China chips?
  • Will the action extend further to other chip equip cos?
  • China chip cold conflict warming up?

It would appear from a Reuters report yesterday that a behind the scenes “cold war” between the US and China in the chip business has just been exposed and has the potential… Read More