Semiwiki on LinkedIn Semiwiki on Facebook Semiwiki on Twitter Register / Log in 
Array
(
    [content] => 
    [params] => Array
        (
            [0] => /forum/index.php?threads/iphone-sales-growth-since-2012.7205/
        )

    [addOns] => Array
        (
            [DL6/MLTP] => 13
            [Hampel/TimeZoneDebug] => 1000070
            [SV/ChangePostDate] => 2010200
            [SemiWiki/Newsletter] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/WPMenu] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/XPressExtend] => 1000010
            [ThemeHouse/XLink] => 1000970
            [ThemeHouse/XPress] => 1010570
            [XF] => 2021370
            [XFI] => 1050270
        )

    [wordpress] => /var/www/html
)

iPhone Sales Growth Since 2012

Daniel Nenni

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Interesting chart. I skipped the iPhone upgrade cycle last year for the first time. I was just not inspired by the iPhone 6s. I was also bothered by the Samsung vs TSMC A9 versions. Did anybody else skip last year? Thoughts and new features that will cause you to upgrade this year?

I want wireless charging and wireless ear buds. Plugging in your smartphone seems archaic and I see a possible social chasm between people who are wired and people who are wireless, so it is right in Apple's wheelhouse. :p

View attachment 16409
 
Our family is split between Android and iPhone users, and my daughter also skipped the iPhone 6s product cycle, maybe because she's in college with a limited budget. I was happy to see Apple finally produce a 5.5" display, catching up to Android sizes and providing a better and bigger user experience.
 
Difficult to comment on the chart. Market hysteria bouncing between end-times for Apple and "everything's fine" has me tuning out because I can't differentiate between noise/self-interest and wisdom. I guess the 1Q earnings report comes out today or tomorrow. Then we'll have another point on the chart to fuel more wild speculation.

Wireless on the other hand is interesting, though not nearly as efficient as wired (20%+ loss in heat). Induction methods still seem more likely in the near-term than beamed wireless charging simply for regulatory/safety reasons (don't want to cook the dog as it sleeps in the path of the beam). With induction, you just throw your devices on a charging mat. But expect devices to get bulkier to support this, until Apple/Samsung shrink the interface down through several generations.
 
Last edited:
BTW, there might be an interesting sociological study on why the herd seems to want to see Apple tank. Seems not dissimilar to what happens to celebrities. As soon as someone gets famous enough, the media really want to see them trip up because they know that sells. Even a smell of weakness gets the crowds cheering for a spectacular crash. No reason market sentiments re Apple should be any different.
 
I read another headline today: "Have we reached peak iPhone?"

When I even suggest an Apple "miss" I get ambushed by the fanbois online. I think everyone is allowed a miss - but the iPhone 7 had better be really good. The difficulty with the iPad is understandable, is it big, is it small, is it better at games, is it for business, and so on. Hard to say where the difficulty with the iPhone 6s is, whether it is geographic or competitive or just approaching market saturation at the high end.

There is also the possibility that after 4.5 years and 2 movies, the Steve Jobs halo is finally wearing off. Now we will see what Tim Cook is made of.

To Bernard's comment, there is a moment near the end of Sons of Anarchy where Jimmy Smits says he's going to Chino, and Drea De Matteo might have to ride in the trunk. She says with a straight face, "It wouldn't be the first time," an ode to The Sopranos. It wouldn't be the first time Apple crashed after flying high. I don't know if we're rooting for that, because if Apple tanks they take out a big chunk of supply chain with them.
 
It will be interesting to see what the stock does. My guess is that it will go down... They really did put lipstick on a pig here.
 
There is a saying in Wall Street, "No tree grows to sky." It seems to be a classical case of innovator being surrounded by fast followers. The outcome is that product [iPhone] with high margins gradually concedes to commodity players.

No wonder, China's Huawei has been one of the most successful smartphone sellers in 2015.
 
It's always the scenario "blame it on the leader" when maturation comes. I was seeing smartphone market maturing in 2013; in early 2014 I blogged about it, although hesitantly because smartphone still has the largest market share. Here is that blog "Is Smartphone Market Maturing?"

Yes, the real cause is that the market has matured, however it will remain stagnant, but not decline significantly. It will be more a replacement (1 yr will elongate to 2-3 years) market than new addition market. Major new additions will be in the categories like Huawei, Xiaomi,.... And yes, iPhone new versions will be the Niche leading the pack, but in number game, other low-priced phones will lead.

In my case, while I settled with Google Nexus, my daughters have Moto and an Indian company Micromax phone. The latest replacement for my wife is Xiaomi mi4.
 
Here is the scary thought for Apple. If you assume that Mac is flat this quarter, services grows 20%, other products double and iPad units fall 20%, then you can back out the iPhone revenue assumptions in Apple guidance. I work it out to be between a 17% and 24% fall in shipments in this quarter. They must have seen a poor Christmas and beginning of this year to be forecasting that. No wonder the operators in the UK are offering such good deals on the 6s.
 
Majeed Ahmad said:
There is a saying in Wall Street, "No tree grows to sky." It seems to be a classical case of innovator being surrounded by fast followers. The outcome is that product [iPhone] with high margins gradually concedes to commodity players.

No wonder, China's Huawei has been one of the most successful smartphone sellers in 2015.
Click to expand...
Good point Majeed. Though Tim Cook has said that he expects to suck up the premium market from other players (Samsung, HTC, etc). Not a great growth story but will certainly give them some growth.
 
Wow, analyst price targets are still pretty high:

Analysts still bullish on Apple but reduce upside predictions
Jan 27 2016, 05:17 ET | About: Apple Inc. (AAPL) | By: SA Eli Hoffmann, SA News Editor
mail_icon.png


Here are the most-recent price-target changes for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). All of them are reductions, although none of the firms changed their generally bullish ratings on the stock.

Morgan Stanley: new PT (price target) of $135, previous $143. Rating remains Overweight/Cautious.

JPMorgan: new PT of $141, previous $145. Rating remains Overweight.
Baird: new PT of $130, previous $150. Rating remains Outperform.

FBR: new PT of $130, previous $150. Rating remains Outperform.
Cross Research: new PT of $140, previous $150. Rating remains Buy.
Barclays: new PT of $142, previous $150. Rating remains Overweight.
Macquarie: new PT of $117, previous $133. Rating remains Outperform.
Stifel: new PT of $120, previous $140. Rating remains Buy.
Piper: new PT of $172, previous $179. Rating remains Overweight.
BMO: new PT of $130, previous $133. Rating remains Outperform.


Street high is Drexel Hamilton at $200. Street low is ABG Sundal Collier at $65.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Wow, analyst price targets are still pretty high:

Analysts still bullish on Apple but reduce upside predictions
Jan 27 2016, 05:17 ET | About: Apple Inc. (AAPL) | By: SA Eli Hoffmann, SA News Editor
mail_icon.png


Here are the most-recent price-target changes for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). All of them are reductions, although none of the firms changed their generally bullish ratings on the stock.

Morgan Stanley: new PT (price target) of $135, previous $143. Rating remains Overweight/Cautious.

JPMorgan: new PT of $141, previous $145. Rating remains Overweight.
Baird: new PT of $130, previous $150. Rating remains Outperform.

FBR: new PT of $130, previous $150. Rating remains Outperform.
Cross Research: new PT of $140, previous $150. Rating remains Buy.
Barclays: new PT of $142, previous $150. Rating remains Overweight.
Macquarie: new PT of $117, previous $133. Rating remains Outperform.
Stifel: new PT of $120, previous $140. Rating remains Buy.
Piper: new PT of $172, previous $179. Rating remains Overweight.
BMO: new PT of $130, previous $133. Rating remains Outperform.


Street high is Drexel Hamilton at $200. Street low is ABG Sundal Collier at $65.
Click to expand...

The funny part is that all (most) these houses maintained Overweight/Outperform rating on AAPL for entire 2015 (and still do) and yet AAPL did anything but "outperforming". As an engineer, in general when I am that wrong I get fired. I understand that markets are unpredictable but relative stock performance is less so. I am curious what the dudes at Piper are thinking. What would it take for AAPL to gain 100% at this point? It's not like incomes in India are going to double in a year...
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Another not so pretty picture:

View attachment 16415

Go China!!! By the way I don't own Apple stock, I'm just a fanboy.
Click to expand...

Well, the reason iPhone sales are doing relatively well in China is the fact that until recently iPhone was only compatible with their marginal wireless provider(s). Now that it works on the major ones people can actually buy it. Hence some people replacing their phones opt for iPhone. This chart does raise the question though. Tim Cook just claimed that people are switching from Android to iPhone at healthy rate. The why is iPhone market share dropping all over the World?
 
lilo777 said:
Well, the reason iPhone sales are doing relatively well in China is the fact that until recently iPhone was only compatible with their marginal wireless provider(s). Now that it works on the major ones people can actually buy it. Hence some people replacing their phones opt for iPhone. This chart does raise the question though. Tim Cook just claimed that people are switching from Android to iPhone at healthy rate. The why is iPhone market share dropping all over the World?
Click to expand...

Let's see what Samsung has to say tomorrow.......
 
Interestingly, after China slowdown, Tim Cook is looking up at India to sell iPhones. Is India that bright spot in the emerging markets to absorb such high-priced iPhones, I doubt.

In my view from now on Smartphone market will see similar trend as PCs, my be slightly better than that because still there are pockets in the world to see first Smartphones.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top