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Has anyone seen this "leaked" roadmap? It shows Intel's planned release schedule for its mobile processors and 10nm processor Cannonlake which is scheduled for 2H 2017. Is this an old slide? Because from what I learned at SPIE Intel 10nm has not hit the fabs yet and won't be in HVM until 1H 2018.
Probably it is really old roadmap. Rumors says, that Kabylake will be delayed to 2017 (to come at the same time as ZEN) so Canonlake might really come 12-18 months after that (2H2018), or even later due to 10nm yields.
btw.: what about Altera? Is here any 14nm FPGA? They use Aria 10 (20nm TSMC) in their 14nm Broadwel Xeons. Is it because they are not able to produce it themself?
And 10nm FPGA's? I heard about Stratix 27, but i don't know, if it will be 14nm or 10nm.
Probably it is really old roadmap. Rumors says, that Kabylake will be delayed to 2017 (to come at the same time as ZEN) so Canonlake might really come 12-18 months after that (2H2018), or even later due to 10nm yields.
btw.: what about Altera? Is here any 14nm FPGA? They use Aria 10 (20nm TSMC) in their 14nm Broadwel Xeons. Is it because they are not able to produce it themself? And 10nm FPGA's? I heard about Stratix 27, but i don't know, if it will be 14nm or 10nm.
Coincidentally I recently had lunch with an Altera friend and was told that 14nm taped out and will be in customer's hands in 2H 2016, which is more than a year late:
John P. Daane - ALTR CEO: So, schedule for our Intel 14 nanometer product remains Q1 2015 for our first production part tapeout which will sample roughly midyear to customers.
The Altera folks are now working on 10nm but given the 10nm delays they don't expect parts to be out until 2H 2018. But, as with bleeding edge semiconductor processes, Intel 10nm can be pulled in or pushed out. Since Xilinx is skipping TSMC 10nm and going straight to 7nm (1H 2018), Altera 10nm parts will compete directly with Xilinx 7nm. My bet is on the Xilinx 7nm parts and remember what they say about being the first to market:
Xilinx
28nm 65% market share (Xilinx beat Altera to 28nm by a matter of months)
20nm 80% market share (Xilinx beat Altera to 20nm by more than a year)
16nm 100% market share (Intel/Altera has yet to release a 14nm part)
Another interesting note about Intel 10nm, instead of starting production in AZ it will start in the Intel Israel fab28, which is a first for Intel. Why I do not know. Maybe someone else can chime in here or send me a private email.
According the equipment folks, Intel Fab 28 move-in has been delayed to Q4 2016 which means 10nm HVM1 won't start until Q4 2017 - Q1 2018, so Cannonlake will miss the 2017 back to school / Xmas season. Not good for INTC and the PC upgrade cycle.
So yes the "leaked" Intel roadmap slide is outdated.
Oregon and Arizona should of put some effort into their perception in Israel. There's no one left that corporate israel can talk to here and it will be a disaster. I think kaby lake and the 2018 delay is more wishful thinking than reality.
Elsewhere on semiwiki there are predictions of negative or very flat growth in the semi industry this year. Intel is responding to that, it seems. Are they being too conservative? Perhaps, but Intel has an empty fab in Arizona to remind them not to be too aggressive. I believe Fab12P7 has also been on-again, off again, for years; timing is everything for TSMC too.
When does TSMC's 10nm start booking meaningful revenue? I heard it's sometime in 2017, but no one has said exactly when.
(P.S. "booking meaningful revenue" is the real start - happens 1Q after they say they are in "volume production")
When does TSMC's 10nm start booking meaningful revenue? I heard it's sometime in 2017, but no one has said exactly when.
(P.S. "booking meaningful revenue" is the real start - happens 1Q after they say they are in "volume production")
