Semiwiki on LinkedIn Semiwiki on Facebook Semiwiki on Twitter Register / Log in 
Array
(
    [content] => 
    [params] => Array
        (
            [0] => /forum/index.php?threads/asml-to-undergo-export-restrictions-in-september.18284/
        )

    [addOns] => Array
        (
            [DL6/MLTP] => 13
            [Hampel/TimeZoneDebug] => 1000070
            [SV/ChangePostDate] => 2010200
            [SemiWiki/Newsletter] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/WPMenu] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/XPressExtend] => 1000010
            [ThemeHouse/XLink] => 1000970
            [ThemeHouse/XPress] => 1010570
            [XF] => 2021370
            [XFI] => 1050270
        )

    [wordpress] => /var/www/html
)

ASML to undergo export restrictions in September

F

Fred Chen

Moderator
www.cnbc.com

Netherlands, home to a critical chip firm, follows U.S. with export curbs on semiconductor tools

The Netherlands on Friday announced new export restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment amid U.S. pressure to cut China off from key chipmaking tools.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

ASML's statement:

"ASML said it will now need to apply for a license to export its most advanced immersion DUV lithography systems, called the TWINSCAN NXT:2000i and subsequent tools.

The Dutch government has used a different set of rules to restrict exports of ASML’s EUV machines since 2018. EUV exports however will now come under the law that comes into effect in September.

ASML said it can start submitting export licenses before the law comes into effect and the government will grant or deny these applications on a case-by-case basis.

The company added that it does not expect the measures announced on Friday to have a material impact on its 2023 financial outlook."

China's response:

The Chinese Embassy in the Netherlands called the latest law from the Dutch government “an abuse of export control measures and seriously disrupted free trade and international trade rules.”

“We call on the Dutch side to bear in mind the larger interest of safeguarding international trade rules and bilateral economic and trade cooperation, immediately correct its wrongdoings,” the embassy statement said.

The embassy said it is ready to “work with the Dutch side to address the issue based on the principle of mutual benefit, so as to jointly promote the healthy development of Sino-Dutch economic and trade relations.”
 
Last edited:
Hard to believe the Dutch are following the US in this reckless charade. Japan I understand but I thought the Dutch were more like Switzerland. Is the entire European Union taking action against China?
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Hard to believe the Dutch are following the US in this reckless charade. Japan I understand but I thought the Dutch were more like Switzerland. Is the entire European Union taking action against China?
Click to expand...
Europe seems to have softer tone than US toward China. Actually, even South Korea is behaving similarly.
 
Fred Chen said:
Europe seems to have softer tone than US toward China. Actually, even South Korea is behaving similarly.
Click to expand...

I would say they are unexpectedly hard. I was was expecting barely any action at all given the naive Franco-German ambitions of dominating the Chinese market, after US companies started to vacate it.

I think this shows lack of confidence in their own judgement on China being a friend or foe for their elites. Ukraine have genuinely spooled the mercantilist elite. I hope this injection of sense into them will last.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Hard to believe the Dutch are following the US in this reckless charade. Japan I understand but I thought the Dutch were more like Switzerland. Is the entire European Union taking action against China?
Click to expand...
My two cents: since China is backing the Russians in their Ukraine/European war, the mood in Europe against China is getting worse. So ASML/Dutch Government has no "political capital" to fight US, that is badly needed for weapons for Ukraine war, that hard. But ASML is smart enough to make the restrictions only for topline DUV-immersion NXT2000 and higher models. They for sure have also (top-line) immersion models below the 2000 "number" and I read somewhere that all/many Chinese orders for 2000+ were converted to 2000- models. See here, they have eg a nice 1980D model:
https://www.asml.com/en/products/duv-lithography-systems/twinscan-nxt2000i

We will see what happens. There is a strong demand also for top line immersion (besides EUV tools, that were already banned for Chinese customers since they became ready for HVM) from many different fabs building/expanding around the globe, and ASML is limited by the supply chain (especially Zeiss I think) in producing enough lenses. Besides that ASML needs cleanroom space and people to assemble/install all these immersion tools. It seems it still takes a year or so between ordering and shipment of a high end immersion tool. ASML is increasing its manufacturing capabilities and people, but that takes time. So, for now they can ship all the 2000+ models in their Chinese backlog probably to other customers. And assemble more 2000- models for the Chinese customers.

Not expecting much change in their 2025-2030 revenue targets, they'll probably exceed the high end range (years) in advance as they always do. ASML knows well how to play the stock analysts at the Wall Street firms.......
 
Last edited:
The EUV ban probably remains most impactful. All the most profitable nodes now require it. Sure, you can aspire to supply domestic China business including military with DUVi but you can't play profitably in the global market, which is the level of ambition they have at this point. So, ambitious people will go find other things to do.
 
Tanj said:
The EUV ban probably remains most impactful. All the most profitable nodes now require it. Sure, you can aspire to supply domestic China business including military with DUVi but you can't play profitably in the global market, which is the level of ambition they have at this point. So, ambitious people will go find other things to do.
Click to expand...
For EUV the supply line limitations (Zeiss) are an order of magnitude worse. I think that the last few EUV systems for shipment in 2024 (!) that were not officially ordered yet, when Q1-2023 numbers were presented last April, will probably be ordered at announcement of Q2-2023 numbers in July 2023. They are also ramping up EUV to 90 systems and high-NA EUV to 20 systems around 2026 or so. They simply cannot make so many so fast. In view of the large AI demand (and all the other high-end chip demand) the coming years, I doubt there will be any problem selling all the EUV systems (normal and high-NA) that they can make. China has to develop these themselves, and once they would have them, I doubt any western fab would buy them in view of the suspicion of taking customer Fab-data to China. ASML simply cannot produce enough of these EUV-tools for all the de-risking western semiconductor fabs.
 
Tanj said:
I cannot find a significant difference between the 2000i and the 1980. Certainly not in the top line performance numbers.

I'm told the scanners are very modular, so I wonder if a 2000+ can be converted to a 2000- by swapping out some modules before shipment. Opening the way for upgrades later assuming rules relax?
Click to expand...
In the DUV talk from the ASML Investor day 2021 you can find most details about their immersion roadmap (this was before the US began pressing the Dutch Government/ASML on the immersion systems in Fall 2022) at that time. It has this slide:
ASML-DUV-slide-Sep2021.jpg


The 2000- models are probably less suitable for use in combination with the EUV tools. But probably fine for multi-patterning immersion only, and that is what the Chinese are using now in their SMIC fab for high-end chips. So, as long as they can do multi-patterning to some extend they can move to 7 nm node in larger quantities using ASMLs 2000- models I think. Experts in the field may correct me, I'm no semi guy.

See here: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/smic-mass-produces-14nm-nodes-advances-to-5nm-7nm
 
The Netherlands has F35s, and needs parts, so they go along with US trade restrictions.

Restricting EUV and 193nm immersion litho on China is economic war. This is a term Ray Dalio openly uses and so I use it. In a non-war context it would be illegal, and would probably end up losing a case at the WTO. But in an economic war context, where the goal is to decouple certain economic functions with dual uses, military and civilian, it is verifiable, narrow, surgical, and seems less likely to cause a hot war. All good things, if there must be an economic war.
 
benb said:
The Netherlands has F35s, and needs parts, so they go along with US trade restrictions.

Restricting EUV and 193nm immersion litho on China is economic war. This is a term Ray Dalio openly uses and so I use it. In a non-war context it would be illegal, and would probably end up losing a case at the WTO. But in an economic war context, where the goal is to decouple certain economic functions with dual uses, military and civilian, it is verifiable, narrow, surgical, and seems less likely to cause a hot war. All good things, if there must be an economic war.
Click to expand...

Hmm, not sure the F35's spare parts play any role in this story. The Dutch currently have 34 and are planned to get 52:
https://www.defensie.nl/onderwerpen/overdefensie/het-verhaal-van-defensie/aantallen-materieel

The Dutch are masters in "gedogen", (https://context.reverso.net/vertaling/nederlands-engels/gedogen). Once in Amsterdam go visit the Hidden Church:

What looks like an ordinary canal house in Amsterdam Red Light District turns out to be an entire hidden Catholic church. Our Lord in the Attic was built in the mid-1600s in defiance of the Calvinists, but tolerated. Inside you’ll see labyrinthine staircases, rich artwork, period decor and the soaring two-story church itself.

https://www.amsterdamredlightdistricttour.com/entertainment/our-lord-in-the-attic/

So, we tolerate some pressure from US politics, but we make sure that our other (ASML's economic) interests are taken care of to maximum extent. Once Putin's war is finished one way or another, a new assessment will be made by EU (in agreement with the Dutch Government) regarding this US economic pressure/war. Do not think that this is not coordinated at the highest level between the Dutch and the EU. ASML will be handsomely compensated by the EU chips act money and all the other national funding by Germany, France, Ireland, Belgium (IMEC) in the EU's chip manufacturing de-risking activities.
 
user nl said:
In the DUV talk from the ASML Investor day 2021 you can find most details about their immersion roadmap (this was before the US began pressing the Dutch Government/ASML on the immersion systems in Fall 2022) at that time. It has this slide: View attachment 1275

The 2000- models are probably less suitable for use in combination with the EUV tools. But probably fine for multi-patterning immersion only, and that is what the Chinese are using now in their SMIC fab for high-end chips. So, as long as they can do multi-patterning to some extend they can move to 7 nm node in larger quantities using ASMLs 2000- models I think. Experts in the field may correct me, I'm no semi guy.

See here: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/smic-mass-produces-14nm-nodes-advances-to-5nm-7nm
Click to expand...
They already had the 20 nm half-pitch capability before the 2000 shipped in 2018.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
www.yahoo.com

Update: ASML Denies Report it Was Working on China-Specific Lithography Tools

ASML was reportedly considering releasing a cut-down version of its Twinscan NXT:1980Di, for China. However, the company denies earlier reports to this effect.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
Click to expand...

It is real a cat&mouse game it seems: no real source given for this "ASML" denial:
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/now.1277140/latest-news

I think we may have to be a little bit more patient till the Q2-2023 release and investor call on 19 July:
https://www.asml.com/en/investors/financial-results/q2-2023
 
Last edited:
Note that the 1980D immersion model had been in their portfolio already in 2015 (!), and was targeted for multi-patterning:
https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-...w-twinscan-nxt-immersion-lithography-platform

https://www.asml.com/en/products/duv-lithography-systems/twinscan-nxt1980di

By combining high productivity and excellent image resolution with unprecedented overlay and focus performance, the TWINSCAN NXT:1980Di addresses multiple patterning requirements and thus provides our customers with a cost-effective solution for advanced nodes.


So, ASML is not "lying" if they state that there is no special development of tools for China. There seems to be a big PR info war going on..........


The 2000+ models are more for use in combination with EUV tools (that are banned for sale to China):
https://www.asml.com/en/products/duv-lithography-systems/twinscan-nxt2000i

This system also includes hardware innovations for improved overlay, focus control and cross-matching.
Designed for mix-and-match use with EUV, its modular design allows upgrades from previous generations, and continues to be upgradable in the future.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top