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It is a demand driven downturn – harder to predict
It may not be “business as usual” after this virus
What systemic changes could the industry face?
Trying to figure out another cycle-driven by inorganic catalyst
Investors and industry participants in the semiconductor industry who are used to normal cyclical… Read More
- Corona impact growing exponentially in chip food chain
- YMTC in Wuhan may be “patient zero”
- Q1 revenue haircuts may turn into Q2 crewcuts
- Working from home really doesn’t work
When does a haircut become a crew cut in revenues?
All the major semiconductor equipment makers took a significant haircut to their Q1… Read More
Corona Fab Impact –
lower production/raise prices
Chip production supply chain may break
It could temporarily fix memory oversupply
Could it risk the fall roll out of next Iphone
The ” Two week tango” – Waiting games at fabs
When a highly specialized piece of semiconductor equipment misbehaves to the… Read More
Corona Curtails already quiet SPIE Litho conference
Our best guess is that attendance was off by 30% from last years SPIE conference due to a lack of travelers from many Asian areas obviously out of Corona fear. Even Intel, which is a few miles away was a virtual no-show with a mass cancellation.
More importantly, virtually all after… Read More
Worst Case Scenario now possible!
- Embargo could extend beyond China to Taiwan (TSMC)
- Likely backs up ASML pressure & Huawei indictment
- “Maximum Pressure” campaign similar to Iran
- Not likely to go away through trade negotiations
US to restrict chip equipment sales to Huawei producers
The Wall Street Journal… Read More
Very solid quarter driven by foundry/logic
AMAT reported a very solid quarter, beating the top end of guidance with foundry and logic being the primary drivers of spend. Revenues were $4.16B and EPS of $0.98 non-GAAP versus street of $4.11B and $0.93 EPS.
Guide not too wide… – $300M “Corona Cut”
More importantly,… Read More
- Trend remains positive for 2020 overall
- New tools & EUV suggest better growth in 2020
- Calendar 2019 ends on strong foundry note
KLAC reported revenues of $1.509B and EPS of $2.66 NonGAAP versus street of $1.48B and $2.58. Foundry (TSMC) was obviously the big driver of the quarter and into 2020 as well. Memory remains subdued… Read More
- LAM- “Logic And Memory” make for a recovery-NAND (Samsung) & Logic (TSMC) + China
- Great Q4 Results & Q1 guide as memory restarts
- Logic strength continues-China is crucial to growth
- 2019 better than expected- 2020 WFE up about 5-8%
Lam reports nice finish to 2019 and start of 2020
The company reported revenues… Read More
- Good Q4 & 2019 despite weak memory
- 2020 will be up year but memory an unknown
- EUV ramp is on track – no China or memory impact
ASML reports an “in line” Q4 despite industry weak 2019
ASML reported sales of 4B Euros and a nice gross margin of 48% resulting in 2.70 Euros per share in earnings. Orders came in at 2.4B
…
Read More
Samsung is warming up and spending again
Samsung gave its preliminary report for Q4 and it was well better than prior muted expectations. It doesn’t take long for Samsung’s business units to respond to business trends in either direction and we have already heard of increased spending plans on the part of Samsung.… Read More
CES 2025 and all things Cycling