KLAC- Past bottom of cycle- up from here- early positive signs-packaging upside

KLAC- Past bottom of cycle- up from here- early positive signs-packaging upside
by Robert Maire on 05-02-2024 at 8:00 am

Semiconductor Manufacturing

– KLA reported a good QTR but more importantly passing the bottom
– Lead times mean KLA gets orders early in up cycle-just behind ASML
– Potential upside in upcycle as packaging needs more process control
– 2024 2nd half weighted with stronger recovery likely in 2025

A solid quarter as expected with good
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LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?

LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?
by Robert Maire on 04-29-2024 at 8:00 am

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– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery

Another Flat Quarter &
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ASML- Soft revenues & Orders – But…China 49% – Memory Improving

ASML- Soft revenues & Orders – But…China 49% – Memory Improving
by Robert Maire on 04-19-2024 at 8:00 am

Fully assembled TWINSCAN EXE 5000

ASML- better EPS but weaker revenues- 2024 recovery on track
China jumps 10% to 49%- Memory looking better @59% of orders
Order lumpiness increases with ASP- EUV will be up-DUV down
“Passing Bottom” of what has been a long down cycle

Weak revenues & orders but OK EPS

Reported revenue was Euro5.3B and EPS of Euro3.11… Read More


ASML moving to U.S.- Nvidia to change name to AISi & acquire PSI Quantum

ASML moving to U.S.- Nvidia to change name to AISi & acquire PSI Quantum
by Robert Maire on 04-01-2024 at 10:00 am

Moving to the US
  • Nvidia changing name to AISi (AI silicon) reflecting business focus
  • Nvidia to buy PSI Quantum to combine AI & quantum efforts
  • ASML to move to U.S. to reduce China & employee restrictions
  • New Japanese consortia firms join Rapidus & IBM fab team

Nvidia renaming to reflect AI reality

Nvidia which is now clearly seen as … Read More


SPIE Let there be Light! High NA Kickoff! Samsung Slows? “Rapid” Decline?

SPIE Let there be Light! High NA Kickoff! Samsung Slows? “Rapid” Decline?
by Robert Maire on 03-03-2024 at 6:00 am

High NA EUV 2024

– High NA EUV’s coming out party – “Dawn” of the Angstrom Era
– Well attended, positive vibes, not much new but good progress
– Concerns about Samsung slowing spend while Intel accelerates
– KLA reticle inspection quandary – Risky business in China

SPIE was a High-NA
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AMAT – Flattish QTR Flattish Guide – Improving 2024 – Memory and Logic up, ICAPs Down

AMAT – Flattish QTR Flattish Guide – Improving 2024 – Memory and Logic up, ICAPs Down
by Robert Maire on 02-19-2024 at 10:00 am

HBM SIP

– AMAT slightly better than expected, flat & guides flat but > expected
– Expects better 2024- Systems flat, service up, display down
– China risk remains high at 45%- $200M Sculpta expected in 2024
– HBM 5% of industry but not a lot of tool sales- but high growth

Still bumping along with flattish Read More


KLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog

KLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog
by Robert Maire on 01-30-2024 at 6:00 am

KLAC Foundry Logic

– KLAC reported an OK QTR & flat guide-waiting for 2025 recovery?
– China exposure remains both risk & savior & big in backlog
– Wafer inspect strong- Patterning on long slide- PCB biz for sale
– Some bright spots but memory still weak- Foundry/Logic OK

Bumping along the bottom of the cycle
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LRCX- In line Q4 & flat guide- No recovery yet- China still 40%- Lags Litho

LRCX- In line Q4 & flat guide- No recovery yet- China still 40%- Lags Litho
by Robert Maire on 01-29-2024 at 6:00 am

Lam Research LCRX

– Lam reported as expected and guided flat- No recovery yet
– Some mix shifts but China still 40% (8X US at 5%)-NVM still low
– HBM is promising but Lam needs a broad memory recovery
– Lam has not seen order surge ASML saw- Likely lagging by 3-4 QTRs

An in line quarter and uninspiring flat guide for Q1

As compared… Read More


ASML – Strong order start on long road to 2025 recovery – 24 flat vs 23 – EUV shines

ASML – Strong order start on long road to 2025 recovery – 24 flat vs 23 – EUV shines
by Robert Maire on 01-26-2024 at 6:00 am

ASML Cleanroom EUV Wafer Stage Training

– ASML orders more than triple sequentially- Utilization increases
– Management remains conservative with flat revenues 2024 vs 2023
– Recovery will be slow, targeting 2025- Long & weak cyclical bottom
– Litho orders are leading indicator of future wider recovery

Strong orders pave the way for
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2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand

2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2024 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor Industry Outlook 2024
  • What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
  • What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
  • What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
  • Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
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