TSMC pushes out equip purchases – SIA and SEMI ask for government help

TSMC pushes out equip purchases – SIA and SEMI ask for government help
by Robert Maire on 06-01-2020 at 9:00 am

TSMC China

TSMC pushing out equipment purchases
Covid/China trickles down to chip industry
SIA and SEMI ask for financial/govt help to keep up
The beginning of another down cycle?

We have heard from a number of sources that TSMC has started to push out equipment orders as concerns grow about the second half of the year.

Right now is the most logical… Read More


TSMC stops doing business with Huawei!

TSMC stops doing business with Huawei!
by Robert Maire on 05-18-2020 at 9:30 am

China Semiconductor Ban Huawei

Hours after agreeing to build a fab in US TSMC will stop selling to Huawei- Repercussions will reverberate through all tech: Semis, semi equip, chip customers, all collateral damage.

It has been reported by Nikkei and other sources that TSMC has stopped taking orders from Huawei in order to comply with US export controls.

HUAWEIRead More


Our US chip foundry comments confirmed by WSJ

Our US chip foundry comments confirmed by WSJ
by Robert Maire on 05-11-2020 at 10:00 am

Trump Intel TSMC China TAiwan

-Could GloFo come back?
-TSMC or Intel or both or neither?
Samsung would be a long shot?
Perhaps Apple could convince TSMC?

The Wall Street Journal put out an article that detailed what we had indicated in our newsletter 10 days ago, that the US government is looking at getting a US based foundry to protect our interests… Read More


KLA – Keep Looking Ahead because we don’t know the future of China & Covid

KLA – Keep Looking Ahead because we don’t know the future of China & Covid
by Robert Maire on 05-11-2020 at 6:00 am

KLAC Covid SemiWiki

-Great quarter & execution with minimal Covid impact
-Wide guide is better than no guide as future is very fuzzy
-Feels like slightly down H2 W/ unknown embargo impact

KLA is virtually unscathed by Covid for now at least
KLA put up a very solid quarter with revenues of $1.424B and Non GAAP EPS of $2.47 versus street of $1.39B and … Read More


Is Chip Embargo aimed at China, Huawei, TSMC or all three?

Is Chip Embargo aimed at China, Huawei, TSMC or all three?
by Robert Maire on 05-03-2020 at 10:00 am

China Semiconductor Trump SemiWiki

Is TSMC the real target, not just collateral damage?
Is equipment embargo threat to bring TSMC to heel?
Is an embargo a “Trifecta” of US strategic goals?

Maybe TSMC is a real target of chip equipment embargo not just potential collateral damage
It occurs to us when we talk about TSMC being caught in the middle between … Read More


Covid Created Collateral China Crisis

Covid Created Collateral China Crisis
by Robert Maire on 05-03-2020 at 6:00 am

China US Trade Agreement 2020

Economic damage-
China relationship damage will far outlast direct Covid19 logistics impact-
Economic damage could be huge but trade damage could be larger with more specific impact on chips-

A long build up to a China trade nuclear winter, the “drum-beat of war”
When we started talking about a potential chip trade… Read More


LRCX Supply constrained by Covid Crisis

LRCX Supply constrained by Covid Crisis
by Robert Maire on 04-26-2020 at 8:00 am

LCRX Lam Research 2020 COVID

Lam Q1 revenue soft by roughly 15% due to supply side
Demand remains solid for Q2 but beyond that, dubious
No guide but Q2 could be => Q1 revenues
NAND solid, China big @ 32%, Foundry remains great

Lam reported a solid quarter but light on revenues…
It was no surprise that Lam reported revenues of $2.5B versus their original… Read More


ASML A Scenario More Lumpy While Demand and Tech Remain Solid Despite Covid Delays

ASML A Scenario More Lumpy While Demand and Tech Remain Solid Despite Covid Delays
by Robert Maire on 04-22-2020 at 2:00 pm

ASML SemiWiki 2020

Covid issues create “lumpy” quarters due to delays
Orders & demand remain solid and strong
2020 Year financials intact so far but ignore Qtrs
Taking prudent actions- no buybacks or guidance

As expected, Covid impacts both shipments & supply chain, ignore the near term lumpiness…
ASML reported revenues… Read More


Short vs Long Term Covid19 Impact

Short vs Long Term Covid19 Impact
by Robert Maire on 04-19-2020 at 10:00 am

Covid Semiconductor

-Short term Covid19 impact is primarily logistics related
-Longer term impact is more systemic/demand driven
-Impact will wind through supply chain over several qtrs
-Other issues, such as trade, remain an overhang

Short term versus long term in the semiconductor industry
The stocks declines over the last months seem to indicate… Read More


Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade back on!

Newsflash Chip Equip Blockade back on!
by Robert Maire on 03-29-2020 at 2:00 pm

US China Blockade


Blocking chip sales to Huawei back on front burner
Covid19 & China Trade are equally bad
Long lived Uncertainty could “plague” industry sales going forward
Political Predictability worse than Disease Predictability

Reuters broke a story today that the proposed licensing of chip equipment to prevent “bad… Read More