KLAC- OK quarter in ugly environment- Big China $ – Little Process $ – Legacy good

KLAC- OK quarter in ugly environment- Big China $ – Little Process $ – Legacy good
by Robert Maire on 10-29-2023 at 10:00 am

KLAC Tencor
  • KLA has an OK quarter in an ugly market- bouncing along bottom
  • Like Lam & ASML, China was huge at 43% represents more risk
  • 2/3 Foundry/logic, 1/3 memory – Process tools were weak
  • No change, stable , no visibility on recovery
Quarter and guide were good in continued ugly industry

As expected KLAC reported earnings at the … Read More


LRCX- QTR OK but outlook mixed- At half of revs, China is huge risk- Memory poor

LRCX- QTR OK but outlook mixed- At half of revs, China is huge risk- Memory poor
by Robert Maire on 10-26-2023 at 8:00 am

China Memory Shortage
  • LRCX has OK QTR but “challenging outlook” – Memory still sucks
  • China at 48% is a huge risk given potential of more sanctions
  • Leading & trailing logic both poor- no recovery in sight yet
  • Memory spending at historical lows for NAND
Quarter came in OK but outlook seems weak and unclear

Revenues came in at $3.48B… Read More


ASML- Longer Deeper Downcycle finally hits lithography – Flat 2024 – Weak Memory – Bottom?

ASML- Longer Deeper Downcycle finally hits lithography – Flat 2024 – Weak Memory – Bottom?
by Robert Maire on 10-20-2023 at 8:00 am

ASML Monopoly
  • ASML reports in-line QTR but future looks flat for 2024
  • Downcycle finally hits litho leader- ASML monopoly solid as ever
  • Memory remains bleak – New China sanctions unclear
  • Recovery timing is unclear but planning for an up 2025
In Line Quarter and year as expected

Overall revenues came in at Euro6.7B with EPS at Euro4.81, more… Read More


ASML- Absolutely Solid Monopoly in Lithography- Ignoring hysteria & stupidity

ASML- Absolutely Solid Monopoly in Lithography- Ignoring hysteria & stupidity
by Robert Maire on 10-17-2023 at 8:00 am

ASML Monopoly
  • This past weeks over-reaction to Canon echoes the Sculpta Scare
  • Nanoimprint has made huge strides but is still not at all competitive
  • Shows basic lack of understanding of technology by some pundits
  • Chip industry has been searching for alternatives that don’t exist
Much ado about nothing much…..

This past week we … Read More


SPIE- EUV & Photomask conference- Anticipating High NA- Mask Size Matters- China

SPIE- EUV & Photomask conference- Anticipating High NA- Mask Size Matters- China
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2023 at 6:00 am

Conference EUV Lithography

– SPIE EUV & Photomask conference well attended with great talks
– Chip industry focused on next gen High NA EUV & what it impacts
– Do big chips=big masks? Another Actinic tool?
– AI & chip tools, a game changer- China pre-empting more sanctions

The SPIE EUV & Photomask conference in Monterey
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Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper

Micron Chip & Memory Down Cycle – It Ain’t Over Til it’s Over Maybe Longer and Deeper
by Robert Maire on 10-01-2023 at 6:00 pm

china 800 pound gorilla
  • The memory down cycle is longer/deeper than many thought
  • The recovery will be slower than past cycles- a “U” rather than “V”
  • AI & new apps don’t make up for macro weakness
  •  Negative for overall semis & equip- Could China extend downcycle?
Micron report suggests a longer deeper down cycle
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Has U.S. already lost Chip war to China? Is Taiwan’s silicon shield a liability?

Has U.S. already lost Chip war to China? Is Taiwan’s silicon shield a liability?
by Robert Maire on 09-20-2023 at 6:00 am

SMIC 7nm
  • Huawei’s 7NM chip? This wasn’t supposed to happen
  • Are Chips a weapon for U.S. or China? Role reversal?
  • Will Taiwan turn from protected asset to unwanted liability?
  • Are sanctions so porous that US has already lost to China?
While EUV is critical to advanced chips there are workarounds

Many people either thought or assumed… Read More


ASML-Strong Results & Guide Prove China Concerns Overblown-Chips Slow to Recover

ASML-Strong Results & Guide Prove China Concerns Overblown-Chips Slow to Recover
by Robert Maire on 07-21-2023 at 8:00 am

ASML 2023 Results

-ASML reports better results & guide despite China restrictions
-Supports our view of China issues not that impactful longer term
-Industry recovery seems very far off with more delays
-ASML remains the best, most robust story in a weak industry

ASML reports nice beat despite China concerns

ASML reported revenues of Euro6.9B… Read More


SEMICON West 2023 Summary – No recovery in sight – Next Year?

SEMICON West 2023 Summary – No recovery in sight – Next Year?
by Robert Maire on 07-15-2023 at 6:00 am

Semicon west 2023

-SEMICON well attended but bouncing along the biz bottom
-Recovery seems at least a year away with memory even more
-AI creates hope but not impactful- Disconnect tween stocks & reality
-AMAT me too platform- Back end benefits from chiplets

SEMICON busy but subdued

SEMICON is certainly back to pre-covid levels or perhaps better.… Read More


Micron Mandarin Memory Machinations- CHIPS Act semiconductor equipment hypocrisy

Micron Mandarin Memory Machinations- CHIPS Act semiconductor equipment hypocrisy
by Robert Maire on 05-26-2023 at 6:00 am

Xi Biden China CHIPs ACT

-We think China issue is overblown- Zero sum game theory
-US should respond Tit-for-Tat and then some- Chop Chinese Chips
-Chip equip makers duplicitous behavior- smacks of hypocrisy
-Exporting chip equip biz/jobs to Asia while asking for CHIPS Act$

Memory Market remains a zero sum game market much like petroleum

China’s… Read More