ASML early signs of an order Tsunami – Managing the ramp

ASML early signs of an order Tsunami – Managing the ramp
by Robert Maire on 04-27-2021 at 10:00 am

ASML Stock Price 2021

Taiwan and Korea represented 43% and 44% respectively with China at 15% and Japan and the US in the far distance.

ASML a tidal wave of orders

On the call management talked about logic potentially being up 30% in 2021 and memory being up potentially 50%. While we thing foundry/logic will clearly be on fir we think memory will lag a bit.… Read More


It’s not a Semiconductor Shortage It’s Demand Delirium & Poor Planning

It’s not a Semiconductor Shortage It’s Demand Delirium & Poor Planning
by Robert Maire on 04-25-2021 at 10:00 am

Biden Chip Shortage

-The semiconductor industry is not to blame its the customers
-How do you fix something that’s not really broken?
-Long taken for granted, semi’s are sexy again
-Pawns in a Political Power Play?

Its not the chip makers that screwed up. It’s the customers that stressed the system beyond breaking

The semiconductor… Read More


Foundry Fantasy- Deja Vu or IDM 2?

Foundry Fantasy- Deja Vu or IDM 2?
by Robert Maire on 03-26-2021 at 8:00 am

Foundry Profit 2020

– Intel announced 2 new fabs & New Foundry Services
– Not only do they want to catch TSMC they want to beat them
– It’s a very, very tall order for a company that hasn’t executed
– It will require more than a makeover to get to IDM 2.0

Intel not only wants to catch TSMC but beat them at their own Read More


Micron- Optane runs out of Octane- Bye Bye Lehi- US chip effort takes a hit

Micron- Optane runs out of Octane- Bye Bye Lehi- US chip effort takes a hit
by Robert Maire on 03-21-2021 at 6:00 am

Intel Optane Micron SemiWiki

– Micron shuts down once promising XPoint
– Lehi Utah fab to be sold off- Had been a $400M drain
– Unique memory couldn’t follow flash down cost/yield curve
– Savings helps Micron but its now just another memory maker

XPoint “Coulda been a contender”

XPoint should have amounted to more… Read More


Chip Channel Check- Semi Shortage Spreading- Beyond autos-Will impact earnings

Chip Channel Check- Semi Shortage Spreading- Beyond autos-Will impact earnings
by Robert Maire on 03-07-2021 at 10:00 am

Robert Maire 2

– Semiconductor shortage is like toilet paper shortage in early Covid
– Panic buying, hoarding, double ordering will cause spike
– Could cause a year+ of dislocation in chip makers before ending
– Investors, Govt & Mgmt will get a wake up call from earnings hit

Auto industry is just a prominent tip Read More


Semiconductor Shortage – No Quick Fix – Years of neglect & financial hills to climb

Semiconductor Shortage – No Quick Fix – Years of neglect & financial hills to climb
by Robert Maire on 03-03-2021 at 8:00 am

Toamagachi Semiconductor shortage

– Semi Situation Stems from long term systemic neglect
– Will require much more than money & time than thought
– Fundamental change is needed to offset the financial bias
– Auto industry is just the hint of a much larger problem

Like recognizing global warming when the water is up to your neck

The problem… Read More


“For Want of a Chip, the Auto Industry was Lost”

“For Want of a Chip, the Auto Industry was Lost”
by Robert Maire on 02-11-2021 at 10:00 am

Auto Assembly Line

Semiconductor production can’t be turned on and off like a switch

Semiconductor fabs have to run 24/7 to make money. They have to be running full all the time to fully utilize the high running costs and in the case of new fabs, high capital costs.

Unlike a brake pad factory hat can hire and fire people at will and source readily … Read More


Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?

Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?
by Robert Maire on 02-07-2021 at 6:00 am

KLA EUV Slowdown

-KLAC- Solid QTR & Guide but flat 2021 outlook
-Display down & more memory mix
-KLAC has very solid Dec Qtr & guide but 2021 looks flattish
-Mix shift to memory doesn’t help- Display weakness
-Despite flat still looking at double digit growth
-EUV driven business may see some slowing from digestion

As always, … Read More


New Intel CEO Commits to Remaining an IDM

New Intel CEO Commits to Remaining an IDM
by Robert Maire on 01-25-2021 at 6:00 am

Pat Gelsinger Intel CEO

-Intel good results had a little extra help to be great
-New CEO commits to remaining an IDM versus fabless
-Claims of strong progress on 7NM fuel optimism inside
-Outsourcing to TSMC will not go away but will increase

A good quarter but with some silicon enhancements from ICAP

Intel reported Revenues of $20B and EPS of $1.52, which… Read More


ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory

ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2021 at 6:00 am

ASML SMIC TSMC EUV DUV

ASML has good quarter driven by DUV & Logic (@72%)
– SMIC & other major customer slow EUV plans
– Logic (read that as TSMC) remains key demand led driver
– We are happy memory remains muted given cyclical potential

A very solid quarter with a continued road to growth
The quarter came in at Euro4,254B… Read More