– ASML orders more than triple sequentially- Utilization increases
– Management remains conservative with flat revenues 2024 vs 2023
– Recovery will be slow, targeting 2025- Long & weak cyclical bottom
– Litho orders are leading indicator of future wider recovery
Author: Robert Maire
ASML – Strong order start on long road to 2025 recovery – 24 flat vs 23 – EUV shines
2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand
- What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
- What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
- What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
- Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
… Read MoreIs Intel cornering the market in ASML High NA tools? Not repeating EUV mistake
- Reports suggest Intel will get 6 of 10 ASML High NA tools in 2024
- Would give Intel a huge head start over TSMC & Samsung
- A big gamble but a potentially huge pay off
- Does this mean $4B in High NA tool sales for ASML in 2024?
News suggests Intel will get 6 of first 10 High NA tools made by ASML in 2024
An industry news source, Trendforce, reports… Read More
AMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter
– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook
Reuters broke the news on the day of earnings
… Read MoreThe Coming China Chipocalypse – Trade Sanctions Backfire – Chips versus Equipment
- China Chip Sanctions have had opposite of intended effect
- Helps AMAT, LRCX, KLAC & TEL- Hurts Micron and GloFo
- Tsunami of Chinese capacity will hurt memory & 2nd tier chip makers
- The probability of a much longer chip downcycle is increasing
China is cornering the market on Semiconductor equipment
Quarterly reports from… Read More
KLAC- OK quarter in ugly environment- Big China $ – Little Process $ – Legacy good
- KLA has an OK quarter in an ugly market- bouncing along bottom
- Like Lam & ASML, China was huge at 43% represents more risk
- 2/3 Foundry/logic, 1/3 memory – Process tools were weak
- No change, stable , no visibility on recovery
Quarter and guide were good in continued ugly industry
As expected KLAC reported earnings at the … Read More
LRCX- QTR OK but outlook mixed- At half of revs, China is huge risk- Memory poor
- LRCX has OK QTR but “challenging outlook” – Memory still sucks
- China at 48% is a huge risk given potential of more sanctions
- Leading & trailing logic both poor- no recovery in sight yet
- Memory spending at historical lows for NAND
Quarter came in OK but outlook seems weak and unclear
Revenues came in at $3.48B… Read More
ASML- Longer Deeper Downcycle finally hits lithography – Flat 2024 – Weak Memory – Bottom?
- ASML reports in-line QTR but future looks flat for 2024
- Downcycle finally hits litho leader- ASML monopoly solid as ever
- Memory remains bleak – New China sanctions unclear
- Recovery timing is unclear but planning for an up 2025
In Line Quarter and year as expected
Overall revenues came in at Euro6.7B with EPS at Euro4.81, more… Read More
ASML- Absolutely Solid Monopoly in Lithography- Ignoring hysteria & stupidity
- This past weeks over-reaction to Canon echoes the Sculpta Scare
- Nanoimprint has made huge strides but is still not at all competitive
- Shows basic lack of understanding of technology by some pundits
- Chip industry has been searching for alternatives that don’t exist
Much ado about nothing much…..
This past week we … Read More
SPIE- EUV & Photomask conference- Anticipating High NA- Mask Size Matters- China
– SPIE EUV & Photomask conference well attended with great talks
– Chip industry focused on next gen High NA EUV & what it impacts
– Do big chips=big masks? Another Actinic tool?
– AI & chip tools, a game changer- China pre-empting more sanctions
Has ASML Reached the Great Wall of China