Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks

Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks
by Robert Maire on 02-16-2020 at 6:00 am

Coronavirus Light SemiWiki

Very solid quarter driven by foundry/logic
AMAT reported a very solid quarter, beating the top end of guidance with foundry and logic being the primary drivers of spend. Revenues were $4.16B and EPS of $0.98 non-GAAP versus street of $4.11B and $0.93 EPS.

Guide not too wide… – $300M “Corona Cut”
More importantly,… Read More


Good December but March variable due to Coronavirus

Good December but March variable due to Coronavirus
by Robert Maire on 02-07-2020 at 10:00 am

Coronavirus
  • Trend remains positive for 2020 overall
  • New tools & EUV suggest better growth in 2020
  • Calendar 2019 ends on strong foundry note

KLAC reported revenues of $1.509B and EPS of $2.66 NonGAAP versus street of $1.48B and $2.58.  Foundry (TSMC) was obviously the big driver of the quarter and into 2020 as well.  Memory remains subdued… Read More


Logic and Memory Make for a Recovery

Logic and Memory Make for a Recovery
by Robert Maire on 02-03-2020 at 6:00 am

Lam Research 2020
  • LAM- “Logic And Memory” make for a recovery-NAND (Samsung) & Logic (TSMC) + China
  • Great Q4 Results & Q1 guide as memory restarts
  • Logic strength continues-China is crucial to growth
  • 2019 better than expected- 2020 WFE up about 5-8%

Lam reports nice finish to 2019 and start of 2020
The company reported revenues… Read More


ASML “A Swing to Memory Looms” Nice performance while awaiting Memory bounce

ASML “A Swing to Memory Looms” Nice performance while awaiting Memory bounce
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2020 at 6:00 am

ASML 2020 Logic Memory
  • Good Q4 & 2019 despite weak memory
  • 2020 will be up year but memory an unknown
  • EUV ramp is on track – no China or memory impact
ASML reports an “in line” Q4 despite industry weak 2019

ASML reported sales of 4B Euros and a nice gross margin of 48% resulting in 2.70 Euros per share in earnings.  Orders came in at 2.4B

Read More

Samsung spend is up but can it offest TSMC slowing?

Samsung spend is up but can it offest TSMC slowing?
by Robert Maire on 01-17-2020 at 6:00 am

TSMC Wafer

Samsung is warming up and spending again
Samsung gave its preliminary report for Q4 and it was well better than prior muted expectations. It doesn’t take long for Samsung’s business units to respond to business trends in either direction and we have already heard of increased spending plans on the part of Samsung.… Read More


ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk

ASML EUV China Chip Equip Risk
by Robert Maire on 01-10-2020 at 10:00 am

ASML China EUV
  • Is ASML first clandestine shot in US war on China chips?
  • Will the action extend further to other chip equip cos?
  • China chip cold conflict warming up?

It would appear from a Reuters report yesterday that a behind the scenes “cold war” between the US and China in the chip business has just been exposed and has the potential… Read More


China’s chip making impact hits DRAM first

China’s chip making impact hits DRAM first
by Robert Maire on 12-24-2019 at 6:00 am

China Memory

The Doctrine of Eternal Recurrence- (Nietzsche..) Deja’ Vu all over again…

The semiconductor industry has seen this movie before, several times….new entrant into the memory chip industry, disrupts the status quo and goes on to dominate the industry (until the next new entrant…)

The Japanese did it… Read More


Could TSMC’s spend be part of the seasonal pattern?

Could TSMC’s spend be part of the seasonal pattern?
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2019 at 5:00 am

Is there more downside than upside in stocks?
Entering a seasonally weak period, then what?
Does China trade come back to haunt industry?
Cycle is past the bottom-But what kind of up cycle?

The most recent up cycle in the industry was a huge one, driven by a huge spend on NAND as SSD’s sucked up infinite number of devices. DRAM … Read More


AMAT last to confirm foundry led recovery

AMAT last to confirm foundry led recovery
by Robert Maire on 11-18-2019 at 6:00 am

Good end to a weak fiscal year- and end to down cycle
As expected and well telegraphed by TSMC, LRCX, ASML & KLAC, AMAT put up a good quarter and guide as the last to report that the industry has turned the corner on the down cycle. While not a rip roaring recovery, its better to return to growth than continue a downward trend.

Results… Read More


KLAC- Very Strong Sept & Guide-Foundry up 50%- 5NM & EUV drivers- Outperforming

KLAC- Very Strong Sept & Guide-Foundry up 50%- 5NM & EUV drivers- Outperforming
by Robert Maire on 11-05-2019 at 6:00 am

  • KLAC Strong Beat on Both Sept Q & Dec Guide
  • Foundry/logic (TSMC) up 50% H2 vs H1
  • Gen 5 acceptance and 5NM rollout drive future

Strong beat in Sept results and Dec Guide
KLAC reported revenue of $1.41B and EPS of $2.48 handily beating street estimates of $1.5B and $2.20 in EPS. More importantly the company guided December to be revenues… Read More