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Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks

Minimal Corona Impact on Chip Equipment Stocks
by Robert Maire on 02-16-2020 at 6:00 am

Coronavirus Light SemiWiki

Very solid quarter driven by foundry/logic
AMAT reported a very solid quarter, beating the top end of guidance with foundry and logic being the primary drivers of spend. Revenues were $4.16B and EPS of $0.98 non-GAAP versus street of $4.11B and $0.93 EPS.

Guide not too wide… – $300M “Corona Cut”
More importantly, given the Corona scare, guidance is for revenues of $4.34b +-$200M and EPS of $1.04 +- $0.06 versus current street of $4.02 and EPS of $0.92.

Management said that revenue outlook would have been $300M better if not taking a haircut due to Corona impact on chips. Management also commented that fiscal 2020 would not be negatively impacted by Corona as it views it as a temporary issue.

2020 WFE outlook of up 10-15% over 2019 – emphasis on 15%
Applied Managment pegged 2018 WFE spend at $56B with a 10-12% drop in 2019 (meaning $49B-$51B) and looking at a 10-15% increase expected in 2020 with a bias towards the high end of 15% which probably translates to a number just shy of $60B.

In our view this has a higher litho component as compared to 2018 and 2019 but dep & etch will obviously be up nicely as well.

The company added that they expect the $6.5B of spending that was China to be up another $2-$3B in spite of the Corona crisis as China continues to accelerate.

Flat panel to be Flat
Its probably not a surprise but flat panel equipment looks to be flat in 2020 overall as we don’t have the 5G and memory recovery drivers that we have on the semi side.

We would expect flat panel to remain sluggish for a while without any new drivers of demand on the horizon.

NAND recovering , DRAM recovery is still a hope & prayer
As we have been saying for a while, NAND continues its slow recovery. AMAT management pointed out that inventories are down by half from their prior peak of 10-12 weeks with pricing also seeing a similar improvement.  DRAM is seeing no such recovery but everybody seems to be hopeful it will follow NANDs lead but there is zero evidence of things getting better in DRAM

A shallower cycle seems to be re-rating industry PE’s
Applied was quick to point out that the peak to trough drop of this most recent downcycle was only 17% versus over 40% peak to trough variations in prior cycles and nearly 100% variation in older cycles.

While Applied management (and some inexperienced analysts) were obviously wrong in prior suggestions, a year or two ago, that the industry was no longer cyclical, we think they are more accurate in walking that back to the new statement that the cycles are now not as bad as they used to be and thus the PE’s should be adjusted to reflect a less cyclical/more growth industry rather than the historical growth cyclical where growth premiums were canceled out by cyclical discounts to equal a market weight PE.

Overall industry PE’s have obviously grown over the last several quarters as investors realize the cyclicality isn’t as bad as the stocks were discounting.

We think this “re-rating” of PE’s appears to have “stuck” as valuations continue to hold up at record levels despite the Corona risk in the stocks.

Trade war risk swapped out for Corona risk
We find it also interesting to note that the trade war risk with China has been replaced seemingly overnight with the Corona risk which doesn’t seem to be having as bad an impact even though business is clearly slowing on the ground, as compared to the trade war risk which never actually impacted business.

We have heard many reports of machines not shipping or not being installed. Travel has ground to a halt in some areas.

Our view is that if Applied gets away with only a $300M haircut from Corona, in the quarter, they should count themselves as lucky.

Our view continues to be that the Corona risk, while temporary, will likely be worse than expected as the hysteria continues to grow.

The stocks
Obviously Applied stock will see nice upside from the nice quarter, great guide and minimal impact from Corona. 2020 outlook is bright and there appear to be no new potholes.  The Kokusai acquisition appears on track and will add more revenues even though its not at all strategic, which will add to the “growth” story.

We find it hard to chase some of these stocks at these record levels, which are “priced to perfection” in an imperfect market. The re-rating of PE’s has clearly helped and stuck which is a good thing as we need a lot of support at these levels.


The Future Of Embedded Monitoring – February 2020

The Future Of Embedded Monitoring – February 2020
by Stephen Crosher on 02-14-2020 at 10:00 am

Stephen Crosher SemiWiki

Shall I compare thee to a…Rolls Royce jet engine?

‘There is a new era dawning whereby deeply embedded sensing within all technology will bring about great benefit for the reliability and performance of semiconductor-based products.’  These were my words during a presentation to an industry audience in China back in September 2015. During that same presentation, somewhat to the consternation of the technology veterans in the room, I also drew comparisons between semiconductor design and an aspect of aviation technology being offered by Rolls Royce. Why on earth would I do that?

I could envision real-time, high accuracy, embedded monitoring becoming ubiquitous in all technology. Plus, understanding that valuable insights can be gained from gathering large amounts of data across entire product ranges could enable a revolution within the semiconductor industry.

To explain my comparison for a moment –  A core principle of Rolls Royce’s R2 Labs Intelligent Engine is ‘data to insight.’ The technology offered by the aviation giant involves gathering mechanical, electronic and system level data for each jet engine in operation, wherever that may be in the world. Through centralised, large data analysis, Rolls Royce have enabled the ability to predict reliability issues, schedule engine maintenance and also allow for trends across fleets of aircraft to be assessed. My point back in Sept 2015 was, in the near future we shall be applying the same approaches and analytics principles to semiconductor devices. This ‘near future’ has now become our reality.

Gathering information from the physical world and acting upon it has been fundamental to human evolution.

In the modern day, how does this correlation to jet engines relate to semiconductors? The answer is within some of the challenges we can identify today – there is undeniable value in: predicting the failure of a critical automotive chip; or finding the operational sweet spot for a processor in terms of clock speed or power, steering an entire product range of data center chips to consume less power while achieving operational performance, such that carbon footprints are reduced by a power station or two.

I’m not the first to make comments of benefits of having an enlightened position through deeper observation. In 1665, Robert Hooke’s book ‘Micrographia’, (the first scientific best-selling book!) provides us with a good example the discovery of ‘Minute Bodies,’ or cells, through the use of magnifying glasses.

‘If you can’t measure it, you can’t improve it’ 

The famous management consultant Peter Drucker points out that, “If you can’t measure it, you can’t improve it.” A personal favourite is the inspired observation from Beyoncé, “You try and fix something, but you can’t fix what you can’t see.” I am sure that big data and a desire to seek patterns within dynamic semiconductor device behaviours was at the forefront of her mind as she wrote those lyrics!

Embedded monitoring within semiconductor devices will evolve, bringing with it a greater opportunity to consume less power, increase speed performance, enhance reliability and reduce design re-spin costs.  As technology evolves, as with my earlier jet engine analogy, expectations upon the semiconductor industry will increase from our vertical-market masters.

Today, solutions are available that will monitor the rapidly changing conditions within a chip, alongside assessments of how it has been fabricated, looking at variation from one chip to the next. This is all for the benefit of developing stable, reliable and optimized products. So my message to chip designers is that your chip is always saying something …. the question is are you listening?

https://moortec.com/blog/


Design Technology CoOptimization at SPIE 2020

Design Technology CoOptimization at SPIE 2020
by Daniel Nenni on 02-14-2020 at 6:00 am

DTCO Fig1 SPIE2020 Semiwiki

SLiC Library tool dramatically accelerates DTCO for 3nm and beyond

In advanced technology nodes below 10nm, Design and Process Technology development have become increasingly intertwined. In older nodes the traditional technology roll-out was done mostly in a sequential manner with clear geometry scaling targets set by process technology and then handed down to designers, determining the resulting scaling of area, power and performance.

This is no longer the case: Nowadays and going forward there are too many choices to be made between different materials, different patterning options, different device structures and different library architectures. The impact of each combination of variables and choices on design capabilities and performance is impossible to intuitively estimate or quantify.

In addition, the DTCO analysis needs to go beyond the device or library level. For example, a seemingly tighter library can prove to be very hard to place and route, causing routing congestion that would make it effectively much worse than a more relaxed library architecture. Effective DTCO today requires a feedback loop and negotiations between technology and design, and the assessment loop encompasses the entire flow: from technology capabilities and limitations, to logic cells, to placement and routing and analysis at the block level, and back.

As seen in the above diagram, the centerpiece of this flow is the standard cell library. Developing a DTCO flow requires having a representative compact logic library that has frequently used logic building blocks (usually less than 200 cells would do). To accomplish an effective and streamlined flow one needs to be able to quickly create variants of this library and use them to implement a few logic designs or blocks that are characteristic to the specific target markets and product applications. Each implementation is analyzed for performance, power, area and cost (PPAC) and is evaluated against other technology and library architecture variants.

DTCO flow bottleneck and the SLiC solution
The DTCO flow must be quick and streamlined to evaluate multiple technology and architecture choices in a reasonable time. Most of the steps (e.g. synthesis, P&R) are automated but creating the library has been the bottleneck of this flow until recently. This critical gap has now been filled by SLiC (Standard-cell Library Compiler), a new tool that solves this problem by automating library creation and cutting the library physical design time from months to less than a day. SLiC has been recently introduced by Sage Design Automation and has proven extremely efficient, creating libraries very quickly with optimal results that are as good and sometimes better than handcrafted.

Unlike past generations of library creation or migration tools, setting up each new technology for SLiC takes less than a day and the run time is measured in hours. SLiC was designed from the ground up for new and advanced technologies. Its inherent versatility accommodates novel devices and logic design concepts including LGAA, CFETs and even more exotic 3D structures and cell architectures.  SLiC has already been used and proven in both DTCO and production flows for 7nm, 5nm, 4nm technologies and 3nm pathfinding DTCO work.

Summary
Standard cell libraries are at the center of the process technology and design development for advanced nodes. SLiC enables very quick creation of optimal quality libraries that can be used both for production in advanced nodes and for pathfinding DTCO of future technologies.

Come and see SLiC at SPIE:   SLiC will be presented at the SAGE-DA booth #103 on the exhibit floor at the 2020 SPIE Advanced Lithography Conference in San Jose (Feb 25th-26th). You are also encouraged to attend the paper “DTCO acceleration to fight scaling stagnation” (Paper 11328-11), showing advanced DTCO work done using SLiC.

https://www.sage-da.com


Savings Tip the Balance to EVs

Savings Tip the Balance to EVs
by Roger C. Lanctot on 02-13-2020 at 10:00 am

Savings Tip the Balance to EVs

In a rare and perhaps unfortunate moment of candor, Cruise Automation CEO Dan Ammann wrote, in his blog post describing the emergence of Cruise (a subsidiary of General Motors) that conventional internal combustion engine vehicles “break down relatively easily. And if they make it 150,000 miles, well, lucky you.”

Ammann goes on to say: “The Cruise Origin (electric autonomous shuttle due for mass production in 2022)… will have a lifespan of over 1 million miles — six times more than the average car.”

There’s just one problem with this quote. Ammann is speaking on behalf of a division of General Motors, which itself makes millions of those lucky-if-you-make-150,000-mile cars. As consumers become increasingly aware of the virtues of EV ownership, life may become very difficult for the sellers of ICE’s – dealers and car makers alike. Just ask your friendly neighborhood fleet operator. Most of them have already seen the future and put their money on battery electric vehicles.

Ammann is onto something many other consumers and researchers already know. Fleet operators around the world fielding Tesla’s or even hybrids like the Toyota Prius are routinely seeing multiple-hundred-thousand-mile performance. The longevity of electric powertrains is reality, not theory.

Battery electric vehicles have fewer moving parts. They require less service and they last longer.

Now AAA has gotten on board with a study identifying the higher operating costs – for fuel and service – of ICE vehicles vs. EVs, publishing a study on the subject. The annual savings amount to 2-3 monthly payments – about $950. AAA’s consumer insights show growing interest in EV ownership.

AAA Study results

These findings validate analysis from Kelly Blue Book and Vincentric pointing to the lower cost of operation for EVs, particularly those that see the highest rates of usage. The more you drive them, the longer they last – or so it seems.

SOURCE: Vincentric

This phenomenon has not been lost on car sharing and ride hailing operators, and rental car companies which are rapidly shifting to electric powertrains. Makers of ICE vehicles may “perceive” consumer resistance due to range anxiety, the limited availability of charging stations, or sticker shock – but they are slowly discovering the groundswell of consumer interest which will soon be fed by a gusher of new electric vehicles – more than 180, to be exact, coming in the next few years, according to a report from car share operator Vulog.

Access Vulog report

With or without incentives, with or without unlimited range, with or without sufficient charging stations, EVs are transforming the automotive landscape – beginning with Tesla and through the growing demand from fleet operators – including car sharers. According to the Vulog report, 17 major cities around the world will ban ICE vehicles by 2025 or 2030. More than a dozen countries have set ICE production/sales cutoff dates of 2040 or sooner.

LMC Automotive published a blog post today noting the potential for the automotive industry to have hit what it calls “Peak Auto.” The company attributes the arrival at this turning point to uncertain demand in markets where some of the most rapid growth had previously occurred – such as India, China, Brazil, and other emerging markets – along with tepid sales in mature markets.

LMC Automotive “Peak Auto” blog

LMC has a point. But there is a more chilling reality setting in. The reality is that there are consumers looking at the ICE vehicles in their driveways, garages, and parking lots and thinking: “That is the last ICE vehicle I will ever buy.” And when those consumers start buying their million-mile electric vehicles, they may not return to a new car dealer lot for a very long time.


Thermal Reliability Challenges in Automotive and Data Center Applications – A Xilinx Perspective

Thermal Reliability Challenges in Automotive and Data Center Applications – A Xilinx Perspective
by Bernard Murphy on 02-13-2020 at 6:00 am

thermometer

I wrote recently on ANSYS and TSMC’s joint work on thermal reliability workflows, as these become much more important in advanced processes and packaging. Xilinx provided their own perspective on thermal reliability analysis for their unquestionably large systems – SoC, memory, SERDES and high-speed I/O – stacked within a package. This was presented at the ANSYS Innovation Conference in Santa Clara recently. They put special emphasis on applications on datacenters and automotive, two areas where FPGAs are playing important roles for their ability field-upgradable to meet new demands.

I’ve talked before about AI functions in the datacenter. Die sizes of leading-edge 7nm AI chips are already reaching reticle limits and consume hundreds of watts of power. Automotive electronics, on the other hand, operate in very harsh environments for extended periods of time. They must be highly reliable, safe and have a zero-field failure rate over a life span of 10 to 15 years. The smallest failure in a safety critical system could potentially cause a fatality, which is unacceptable. Both create new demands to ensure thermal reliability.

Thermal reliability is a big deal in these advanced designs for multiple reasons. First FinFET transistors are prone to something called self-heating. They heat up more quickly than traditional planar transistors. Second, interconnects have some resistance and generate heat when current flows (Joule heating). Third, heat dissipates very slowly on electronic switching time scales. And fourth, all this heating is compounded when you stack chips on top of each other. That’s a problem for reliability because increased temperatures affect (among other things) increased electromigration (EM), thermally induced mechanical stress and solder joint fatigue, leading ultimately to functional failures.

What I found interesting about the Xilinx story, because I’m a math and physics nerd, is that Xilinx and ANSYS shared a bit more on how this flow handles modeling for the heat diffusion problem in chip/package structures.

ANSYS RedHawk (or ANSYS Totem for analog blocks) computes, based on detailed knowledge of layout and structures together with simulation, a T (temperature above nominal) for each wire. This comes from self-heating and Joule-heating. Do this for all wires. Then, per wire, look at the impact of heating in neighboring wires. The closer a neighbor is to the wire of interest, the higher the impact it will have. These coupling contributions are calibrated to the process in the tool. Add together all meaningful contributions from neighboring wires (superposition) and you get the total heating in the current wire.

Turns out this can overestimate heating in some cases. For example, foundry estimates might show no more than a 5o T in areas of dense heating, where a superposition calculation can exceed that limit. Xilinx and ANSYS figured out a way to compensate for this effect by applying a T clamping approach which bounds this over-estimate. It also estimates heating for current flow isolated to a single wire to more like 1.25o, well below the nominal 5o T, correlating well with foundry estimates. Based on these calculations, local EM failure rates can be calculated quite accurately and can show, especially in those isolated wire heating instances, less pessimistic estimates than global approaches.

Xilinx next talked about temperature gradients across the chip. Traditionally you require that worst-case transistor junction temperatures be held below some maximum allowable level across the design. Heating from any of the above sources adds to this problem, leaving you with few options – spread out any places that get hot, wasting area or go for a bigger device, or run the clock slower until the chip cools down. But a more granular approach may show that trying to design your way out of the problem is over-compensating.

Here the Xilinx approach gets interesting. They calculate a cumulative failure rate (CFR) for the chip in a composition fashion, where each block has its own CFR budget. For blocks where T is low in this temperature distribution, there is no concern. For a block where T is high, they re-examine the CFR budget for that block to determine if it can be adjusted to still ensure an acceptable lifetime for the whole device. They don’t explain how they do this, but they do provide a couple of references that the more determined among you may find relevant.

Interesting study, you can learn more by registering to watch the webinar.


TinyML Makes Big Impact in Edge AI Applications

TinyML Makes Big Impact in Edge AI Applications
by Tom Simon on 02-12-2020 at 10:00 am

TimyML ECM3532 Architecture

Machine Learning (ML) has become extremely important for many computing applications, especially ones that involve interacting with the physical world. Along with this trend has come the development of many specialized ML processors for cloud and mobile applications. These chips work fine in the cloud or even in cars or phones, but they are nowhere miserly enough when it comes to power consumption for use in IoT applications. For instance, many automotive ML processors use between 100W and 500W. Edge devices such as phones can get by with one tenth of a watt, but to go into what Eta Compute calls the extreme edge, power consumption has to be in the realm of 1 to 10mW.

Let’s look at some extreme edge applications and why it is useful to have ML processing performed locally. IoT devices at the extreme edge will perform many sensor related tasks. Examples are thermostats, occupancy sensors, smoke detectors, etc. Included in this group are medical and fitness devices such as fitness bands, health monitors and hearing aids. For commercial applications we see things like asset tracking, retail beacons and remote monitoring. Many of these use small batteries and require long battery life. Some even rely on energy harvesting for power.

Looking at the list above it becomes clear how ML could be useful. Yet these devices cannot afford the energy budget to transfer raw data to the cloud for processing. There is also a cost saving to not relying on cloud processing for every IoT device that needs ML capabilities. Another benefit is the low latency achieved by saving a trip to the cloud for recognition tasks or even training. The solution is to build highly optimized ML processors for IoT and extreme edge usage.

This is exactly what Eta Compute has done with its announcement of their ECM3532 Neural Sensor Processor at the second TinyML Summit held in San Jose on February 12th. The ECM3532 is an SoC for ML and can be trained with the popular.

TensorFlow software. Their chip is especially interesting because it gains a huge efficiency advantage through their self-timed continuous voltage and frequency scaling (CVFS) technology. Because the control CPU and the DSP, which includes optimized MAC units, both use CVFS they are seeing a 10x reduction in power compared to traditional clocking and voltage supply approaches.

The ECM3532 contains an ARM Cortex-M CPU and a dual MAC 16-bit DSP. It also has onboard memory (Flash, SRAM, ROM), an ADC, serial interfaces, GPIOs, RTC, clock generation and power control. Running a variety of different benchmarks and applications, the ECM3532 is able to perform inference with less than 1mA of power consumption. Even when running COREMARK at up to 100 MHz its power consumption stays in the single digit mW range. The chip is capable enough, with 512KB of Flash and 256KB SRAM, for Eta Compute to provide demos in speech, image and video recognition, and industrial sensors. To provide flexibility in communication choices, the ECM3532 itself does not have onboard RF support, but it is expected to be designed into packages or boards with any desired wireless protocol chip or chiplet for cloud connectivity.

Because of their architecture choices on CPU, DSP and MAC, they are seeing excellent results in performance. On the CIFAR-10 CNN dataset they were able to reduce the number of operations required by a factor of 10 and reduce the weight size by 2 and achieve similar accuracy compared to published academic results.

Eta Compute is opening the doors to making IoT devices smarter and more responsive without drawbacks of shorter battery life or infeasible unit costs. Smarter IoT devices will offer more functionality and play a larger role in industry, medicine, appliances and elsewhere. It will be interesting to see the applications that are developed using this breakthrough technology. More information on their announcement can be found on the Eta Compute website.


De-Risking High-Speed RF Designs from Electromagnetic Crosstalk Issue

De-Risking High-Speed RF Designs from Electromagnetic Crosstalk Issue
by Mike Gianfagna on 02-12-2020 at 6:00 am

Picture3 1

At DesignCon 2020, ANSYS sponsored a series of very high-quality presentations.  Some focused on advanced methods and new technology exploration and some provided head-on, practical and actionable capabilities to improve advanced designs. The presentation I will discuss here falls into the latter category. The topic was presented by Anand Raman, senior director of application engineering for on-chip EM solutions at ANSYS. Anand is one of those people who has infectious enthusiasm.  He will draw you into whatever topic he is presenting and get you involved. Given the impact of his material, it was quite easy to do in this case.

Anand began by pointing out that most people understand the need for electromagnetic (EM) analysis for high-frequency RF designs (chip and board). The structures and operating frequencies of this class of design utilize “purposeful inductance” that needs to be modeled. He then pointed out that these challenges can also exist in ultra-high-speed digital designs, in subtle and hard-to-find ways that can cause large problems due to parasitic inductance. A collection of correctly designed and verified blocks can fail when assembled onto a chip due to remote coupling effects. Power/ground networks can become channels to create these subtle problems.

Anand pointed out that extremely thin routes that run long distances and carry very high-speed data is a formula for extreme inductance effects. Capacitance extraction has been widely used in digital design for a while now. It’s time to consider inductance effects as well. Parasitic inductance causes two problems – signal distortion and parasitic coupling due to the magnetic field.

It turns out that an EM-aware design flow can do more than ensure a working chip. It can also provide the opportunity to improve circuit density as well. The figure below summarizes some of these effects for two generations of the same design. The second one is over 37% smaller, owing to the ongoing and complete modeling of all EM effects, allowing for a more aggressive design.

Going back to the subtle and non-intuitive nature of magnetic coupling, Anand provided a good graphic to explain the problem, see below. The third loop mentioned below could be created by the thousands of structures in a power distribution network.

ANSYS provides a platform of tools to get to the required level of coverage for a true EM-aware design flow. These tools integrate with existing digital design flows and provide several levels of analysis support. The tools, and their field of application, are summarized below.

Regarding the other benefits of an EM-aware design flow, several examples were presented based on real designs. In one case, shown below, active circuitry was folded under an inductor, resulting in substantial area savings. This was made possible by analysis from the previously mentioned ANSYS EM tool platform to ensure this change did not introduce EM coupling effects. VeloceRF was also used to synthesize a much smaller inductor.  Overall, there was a 66% area saving with slightly better performance.

Several other real design examples were presented that highlight the way subtle EM coupling can cause significant design problems. These examples included a working chip that degraded in the package due to EM crosstalk from the ground net to the first few package layers. Other cases of degradation due to coupling through the package were presented. Another interesting case illustrated how the seal ring in a chip cause an inductive coupling loop.

I would say Anand made a strong and passionate case for the benefits of an EM-aware design flow. To check out an example of a customer case study on the topic of de-risking high-speed serial links from on-chip electromagnetic crosstalk and power distribution issues, click HERE.


Innovation in Verification – February 2020

Innovation in Verification – February 2020
by Bernard Murphy on 02-11-2020 at 6:00 am

Innovation in Verification

This blog is the next in a series in which Paul Cunningham (GM of the Verification Group at Cadence), Jim Hogan and I pick a paper on a novel idea in verification and debate its strengths and opportunities for improvement.

Our goal is to support and appreciate further innovation in this area. Please let us know what you think and please send any suggestions on papers or articles for us to discuss in future blogs. Ideas must be published in a peer-reviewed forum, available (free or through a popular site) to all readers.

The Innovation
Our next pick is “Learning to Produce Direct Tests for Security Verification using Constrained Process Discovery”. This was presented at DAC 2017. The authors are Kuo-Kai Hsieh, Li-C. Wang, Wen Chen, (all from UCSB) and Jayanta Bhadra from NXP.

Security verification is a challenging part of any complete test plan. Black hats know that general testing tends to go more broad than deep in order to bound the scope of tests, so look especially for complex penetration attacks. This paper offers a method to learn from deep penetration testing developed by security experts to generate more penetration attacks of similar type.

All tests in this method are based on sequences, in the paper as sequence of calls to C operations – might be C or portable stimulus standard (PSS). They start with tests developed by security experts and, through grammatical inference (a type of machine learning) they build an automaton model, representing a complete grammar of all such tests.

Training also develops constraints, given observed limitations in sub-sequences in the training examples. The authors say the automaton model matures relatively quickly and constraints continue to mature with more examples.

Once trained, model plus constraints can be used to generate new sequence tests through a SAT solver. Generated tests are run in conventional verification environments. They show result of their analysis, presenting an increase in coverage points (CPs) defined by experts.

Paul
I really liked the exposition of the problem in this paper, concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability. The authors go on to combine two ideas, constraint solving (a standard verification method), with an idea of grammatical inference. This is a nice follow-on from our previous blog (which used genetic learning to improve coverage).

Another thing I thought was intriguing was using machine learning to generate attacks, rather detect attacks, as AI is often used as a method for detecting behavioral anomalies in real-time. Their method, grammatical inference on a state machine, is something that would be interesting to apply on top of PSS engines. If someone was interested in doing this – for research – I’d be happy to support them with a Perspec license.

The test example shows promise. It would be interesting to see how the method scales over a range of test cases and sizes. I’d also like to see more discussion on metrics for assessing the effectiveness of security verification methods. This is a tricky area, I know, but all insights are useful.

For example, using cover points as a metric is certainly useful to increase general coverage, but doesn’t give a clear sense of impact on security.  Is it possible to adapt the approach consider impact on attack surface (for example), a metric more directly tied to security?

Overall, I think there were some nice ideas prompting this work. I would like to see them developed further.

Jim
I’m going to take a bit of a different tack here, more where I think security may head and the current market.

First, directions. At the high end (servers), security is becoming a game of whack-a-mole. Before a vulnerability has been fixed, a new one has been found. I don’t think our current approaches are sustainable. We need to be looking at more vulnerability-tolerant architectures.

At the low end (IoT), decent security is better than none so still plenty of opportunity for methods of this type.

In adoption, there’s a gap between the security must-haves and the security nice-to-haves. Must-haves are the DoD, nuclear reactors, automotive and payment cards. Places where security is not negotiable, and liability is huge if you get it wrong. There’s a middle ground where the same probably applies but there’s no organizational or political will to invest in upgrades. For everything else, regulation may be the only path.

Me
I think an example attack would have helped. One I remember attacks a hardware root of trust (HRoT). Inside the HRoT, a master key is decrypted onto the HRoT data bus, then stored in a secure location. External access to the bus is disabled during this phase.

The HRoT then decrypts data for external access, while access to the internal bus is necessarily enabled. If enabled too soon, the key is still on the internal bus and can be read outside the HRoT. A small coding error exposes the key for a short time. Would this method have found such a bug?

On coverage, incremental improvement isn’t very compelling. I would like to see more discussion on how to determine that some class of penetration attacks could be prevented completely. Expert-defined coverage points don’t seem like the right place to start.

To see the next paper click HERE.

To see the previous paper click HERE.


Emerging Requirements for Electromagnetic Crosstalk Analysis

Emerging Requirements for Electromagnetic Crosstalk Analysis
by Tom Dillinger on 02-10-2020 at 10:00 am

EM coupling wire segments

This article will describe the motivations for pursuing a new flow in the SoC design methodology.  This flow involves the extraction, evaluation, and analysis of a full electromagnetic coupling model for a complex SoC and its package environment.  The results of this analysis highlight the impact of electromagnetic coupling on the performance and functionality of modern-day complex SOC designs.

Background
With the introduction of nanometer process scaling, the vertical-to-horizontal aspect ratio of interconnects increased above unity.  As a result, the much larger contributions of capacitive crosstalk from a neighboring aggressor to a victim net necessitated new and improved SoC design flows.  Noise analysis tools and corresponding IP characterization methods were developed to ensure that the (cumulative) energy injected into a (quiescent) victim net from its aggressors did not subsequently result in a circuit network failure.  Algorithms for interconnect delay calculation used in static timing analysis flows were extended to reflect the noise impact on delay, due to the potential waveform modifications at the fanouts of a transitioning signal from concurrent transitions on aggressors.

EDA tools for physical implementation also incorporated new features.  Specifically, detailed routing algorithms were extended to include restrictions on the parallel run length of adjacent interconnects.  More sophisticated noise calculation/avoidance methods were incorporated to assist with wiring track selection.

Designers also quickly adopted techniques to further mitigate the risk of subsequent capacitive crosstalk noise failures.  Specific non-default rules (NDR) for critical nets were coded, to guide implementation tools to use greater-than-minimum spacing between metal segments on a layer and/or to direct segments to a track adjacent to a non-switching (power/ground) net to effectively shield the segment from coupling transitions.

The limited extent of the capacitive electric field lines between metal segments was relatively easily incorporated into SoC physical design and electrical analysis flows, supported by (standards for) library cell output driver waveforms and input pin noise sensitivity models.

As SoC clock frequency targets increased and supply voltages were scaled in  nanometer designs, the influence of the (self-)inductance of specific nets became more evident.  Dynamic power/ground noise margin analysis methods incorporated extracted RLC models for the P/G grids, to which switching current sources were injected at cell locations.  The slew rates of clock nets were analyzed with inductive elements, which presented additional impedance to the (harmonic) high-frequency content of clock driver transitions.

References [1] and [2] below describe a representative partial inductance extraction method for a collection of metal segments – partial inductance assumptions are used for a segment to mitigate the difficulty in defining the “full loop” current return paths.  Reference [3] illustrates how clock signal distribution may be influenced.

Electromagnetic Modeling Requirements for Today’s SoC Designs
The complexity of modern SoC designs integrates an extremely diverse set of high-performance IP, with a corresponding increase in the potential for electromagnetic coupling between disparate physical blocks.  The isolated (partial) inductance models for P/G grids and clock nets need to be extended to represent the potential mutual-inductance long-distance interaction between current loops on-chip.

The figure above illustrates the importance of modeling this physical coupling.  Two “isolated” small loops in the layout are 1mm apart and when fully extracted and analyzed together, they are quite isolated with very weak coupling. The layout also contains a third larger ring 20mm x 25mm. When the RC effects of that third bigger ring are considered, there is a minimal impact on the isolation between the two coils.  However, when full electromagnetic (EM) extraction (RLCk) and analysis are performed, the graph shows that the isolation between the two small loops is reduced by 30dB at 10GHz due to the additional EM coupling.  Note that the third ring/loop is not physically adjacent to the two IP loops – full electromagnetic coupling differs from the short-range of electric-field capacitive crosstalk.

(Parenthetically, to prove that the EM coupling is from the 3rd loop, an additional analysis was done with the 3rd loop “cut” – the isolation returns to the 2 loop-only results, as depicted in the figure above.)

The surrounding structures on-chip that could contribute to electromagnetic coupling include a myriad of possibilities – e.g., P/G grids (with decoupling caps), seal rings, the bulk silicon substrate, redistribution layer metals on the package, etc.

So, why are SoC EM coupling issues emerging?

The figure above illustrates that the isolation between IP blocks is impacted primarily at very high frequencies.  Consider current SoC designs where a multitude of serial transceiver signal lanes are packed together on the die – for example, these SerDes lanes could be transmitting PAM-4 56Gbps signals at 7GHz.  A group of lanes would share a common VCO/PLL clock source – multiple groups would be integrated to provide the total required data bandwidth.  (Each group could also have multiple VCO’s within, to span a greater range of transmit frequencies.)  Electromagnetic coupling contributions between multiple SerDes lanes, their P/G networks, seal ring, and package structures could result in significantly increased clock jitter (at the frequency spectrum of interest), and thus an unacceptable bit error rate.

The topologies of today’s advanced packages are a critical part of the EM coupling model, as mentioned above.  The redistribution and power delivery metals in 2.5D packages (with interposer) need to be included.  The unique nature of multiple stacked, thinned die in 3D packages (face-to-back or face-to-face) also requires models for EM coupling.

EM Coupling Tools and Flows
The requirement for (high-performance) SoC teams to add EM coupling analysis to their sign-off methodology necessitates new tools/flows that can assist designers with the difficult task of EM model extraction and simulation.

I recently had the opportunity to chat with Yorgos Koutsoyannopoulos, Vice President of Engineering at ANSYS about the recent EM coupling tool/flow advances available.

“We divided the EM coupling analysis task into two flows.”, Yorgos indicated.  “The end goal is to provide designers with detailed extracted RLCk models for all relevant structures in the design, annotated to a circuit-level model for time, frequency, noise SPICE simulations.  Yet, the full-chip package data volume would be unmanageable, and a large percentage of the IP signals on the SoC would not be of interest.  We have developed an assessment flow to help designers pinpoint the specific nets where a detailed EM coupling model simulation is warranted.” 

“How is the full chip plus package model initially generated for evaluation?”, I asked.

Yorgos replied, “The focus on the assessment flow using the ANSYS Pharos tool is to evaluate the SoC metals, vias, dielectrics, and substrate model without the circuit level detail.  Designers specify the (top-level) interconnect layers of interest, and a topological model is constructed.  Ports are automatically added at the physical cut points.  At this juncture, without the underlying circuits, there is no annotation of an extracted RLCk model – the chip need not be LVS clean.  The analysis will span the SoC IP physical hierarchy, in order to detect larger loops.  The goal is to find the interacting structures that warrant further, detailed simulation.”

“What feedback is provided to the designer?”, I asked.

“Pharos provides both general heat maps on the excised layout database for relative visual feedback, combined with the selection of nets/grids for subsequent simulation.”, Yorgos replied.  “The excised model is evaluated at a range of frequencies (and increments) provided by the designer.”

“Even with the excised SoC model, this is still a tremendous amount of physical data – what kind of IT resources are required for this early assessment?”, I inquired.

“For example, for a 100mm**2 die with the top 5 metal layers selected, the heat map for each frequency point would take roughly 1-3 hours on a 64-core 1TB memory footprint server.”, Yorgos answered.  (Not too bad, I thought.)

Yorgos continued, “Pharos utilizes the same interconnect technology file as other flows – dependencies such as the metal sheet resistivity as a function of linewidth and the process corner definitions are included.  For die with package models, we are able to include the package stack-up definition and redistribution layers into a unified extracted model.  We also have an advanced method for modeling the die substrate into an extremely accurate RC mesh network.”

Much like design methodologies were extended to support the impact of capacitive crosstalk, it is increasingly the case that high-performance SoC IP’s (potentially utilizing advanced packaging) will need to adopt methods for broad electromagnetic coupling analysis.

To learn more about electromagnetic coupling challenges, check out this ANSYS link. Additional references with an overview of electromagnetic coupling symptoms are provided below.

-chipguy

 

References

[1]  Ruehli, A.E., “Inductance Calculations in a Complex IC Environment”, IBM Journal of Research and Development, p. 470-481, September 1972.

[2]  White, et al., “FASTHENRY:  A Multipole-Acclerated 3D Inductance Extraction Algorithm”, IEEE Transactions on Microwave Theory and Techniques, Vol. 42, No. 9, p. 1750-1758, September, 1994.

[3]  Restle, P., and Deutsch, A., “Designing the best clock distribution network”, VLSI Circuits Symposium, p. 2-5, 1998.

[4]  Raman, A., et al., “Electromagnetic Crosstalk Failures and Symptoms in SoC Designs”, 2017 18th International Workshop on Microprocessor and SoC Test and Verification, p. 39-43.

[5]  Papadopoulos, P., et al., “Challenges and Trends in SoC Electromagnetic Crosstalk”, 2017 2nd International Verification and Security Workshop (IVSW), p. 63-69.

 

 


It’s The Small Stuff That Gets You …

It’s The Small Stuff That Gets You …
by Mike Gianfagna on 02-10-2020 at 6:00 am

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The last session I attended at DesignCon 2020 wasn’t a session at all. Rather it was an interactive discussion with Todd Westerhoff, product manager for electronic board systems at Mentor Graphics. Todd made some observations about the way high-performance PCBs are designed today and perhaps the way they should be designed. Todd has a long career in EDA and high-speed design, including a stint managing high-speed systems design at Cisco, so I was ready to listen carefully. As an aside, we spent some time discussing the birth of EDA and what it all (might) mean. That’s a story for another day.

Let’s start with the fundamental premise of Todd’s discussion – experts can instantly spot problems invisible to others. The experts in this case are the signal integrity design experts that we all wish we had more of. To make this point, Todd shared the image on the right. It’s a brain scan, and it clearly shows a problem. Do you see it? This would require a different kind of expert. If you think you know what’s happening in this picture, put it aside for now. We’ll discuss the answer later.

So, what’s the core issue we’re discussing? The following diagram that details the health of hardware design projects sums it up.

25% simply isn’t a good hit rate. What can be done about this? Ideas around this goal occupied the balance of my discussions with Todd. High performance PCB design is hard – signal integrity issues will kill your design if you’re not careful. There’s nothing really new in this statement, but let’s take a closer look at how the difficulty of these designs is manifested in the design flow.

In any given high-speed, high-performance PCB design, there are clearly areas of concern from a signal integrity perspective. The areas where crosstalk and coupling are likely to be an issue get close attention from the SI experts. There are a lot of tools and a lot of complexity in this part of the design process. The figure below is an example of how things stack up for a SerDes channel.

This is the risky part of the design, but this is NOT where the typical killer defect emerges. There are way too many expert eyeballs looking at this part for that to happen. Rather, it’s the rest of the design, the parts that go through traditional design reviews, that usually get you.  The “small stuff” as Todd would say. There are always SI hotspots that are aren’t noticed and so these parts of the design get a level of scrutiny that is insufficient to see and fix the problem.

Todd posed the following solution: What if you could create an automated design review checking system? One that gives designers the capability to run first-order analysis themselves. One that automates and integrates analysis of things like crosstalk and DRC into existing design processes and one that can run overnight, providing the design team a “heat map” of issues to look at as a result of yesterday’s work. This started to make a lot of sense to me.

It turns out Mentor is beginning to work with customers to deploy such an automated design review system. The figure below shows what it looks like.  Note the Mentor HyperLynx DRC tool is mentioned. It turns out Mentor has tools to cover the entire automated design review flow. Watch this work from Mentor, I think it has great promise to get that 25% hit rate much higher.

And by the way, regarding that brain scan, the problem area highlighted is an aneurysm. This is a real case, where the problem was identified early and repaired. If you got this right, there might be other job opportunities for you in addition to impossible chip/system design.