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SECTION II, CHAPTER 6 – SPECIALIZATION IN THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY

SECTION II, CHAPTER 6 – SPECIALIZATION IN THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
by Wally Rhines on 08-16-2019 at 6:00 am

Recently, the combined market share of the top ten and top twenty semiconductor companies has been increasing, contrary to the trend of the last fifty years.  Given the acceleration in mergers and acquisitions that began in 2015, one might assume that, as the semiconductor industry approaches maturity, companies are consolidating… Read More


Chapter 5 – CONSOLIDATION OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY

Chapter 5 – CONSOLIDATION OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
by Wally Rhines on 08-09-2019 at 6:00 am

PART II – COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS IN THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY

Chapter 5 – CONSOLIDATION OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY

For the last decade, semiconductor industry analysts have been writing articles and giving presentations that predict the increasing consolidation of the industry to the point where a few large… Read More


Chapter Four – Gompertz Predicts the Future

Chapter Four – Gompertz Predicts the Future
by Wally Rhines on 08-02-2019 at 6:00 am

In 1825, Benjamin Gompertz proposed a mathematical model for time series that looks like an “S-curve”.1  Mathematically it is a double exponential (Figure 1) where y=a(exp(b(exp(-ct)))) where t is time and a, b and c are adjustable coefficients that modulate the steepness of the S-Curve.  The Gompertz Curve has been used for a … Read More


Chapter 3 – Moore’s Law is Unconstitutional!

Chapter 3 – Moore’s Law is Unconstitutional!
by Wally Rhines on 07-26-2019 at 6:00 am

(Adapted from a presentation first given under this title in 1989 and subsequently expanded in presentations over a period of nearly thirty years)

In 1965, Gordon Moore, then R&D Manager for Fairchild Semiconductor, published a paper in “Electronics” magazine predicting the trend for semiconductors in the next ten years.… Read More


Chapter 2 – Constants of the Semiconductor Industry

Chapter 2 – Constants of the Semiconductor Industry
by Wally Rhines on 07-19-2019 at 10:00 am

In the mid 1980’s, Tommy George, then President of Motorola’s Semiconductor Sector, pointed out to me that the semiconductor revenue per unit area had been a constant throughout the history of the industry including the period when germanium transistors made up a large share of semiconductor revenue.  I began tracking the numbers… Read More


Predicting Trends in the Semiconductor Industry

Predicting Trends in the Semiconductor Industry
by Wally Rhines on 07-05-2019 at 8:00 am

PART ONE – TOOLS FOR PREDICTING SEMICONDUCTOR TRENDS

Chapter 1: LEARNING CURVES PROVIDE PREDICTABLE COST AND REVENUE PER TRANSISTOR

Figure 1 is the most basic of all the predictable parameters of the semiconductor industry, even more so than Moore’s Law.  It is the learning curve for the transistor.  Since 1954, the revenue per… Read More


The Implications of the Rise of AI/ML in the Cloud

The Implications of the Rise of AI/ML in the Cloud
by Randy Smith on 06-14-2019 at 10:00 am

Recently, Daniel Nenni blogged on the presentation Wally Rhines gave at #56th DAC. Daniel provided a great summary, but I want to dive into a portion of the presentation in more detail. I love Wally’s presentations, but sometimes you cannot absorb the wealth of information he provides when you initially see it. It’s… Read More


From Wild West to Modern Life the Semiconductor Evolution

From Wild West to Modern Life the Semiconductor Evolution
by Daniel Nenni on 04-15-2019 at 7:00 am

What started as blogs, or vignettes as Wally calls them, posted on SemiWiki is now a free PDF eBook. The journey starts with his school days at Stanford through 20+ years at TI and 24+ years at Mentor Graphics. Wally has traveled millions of miles meeting with every customer imaginable while presenting hundreds of different keynotes… Read More


Basic Techniques for Managing EDA Business

Basic Techniques for Managing EDA Business
by Daniel Nenni on 11-02-2018 at 7:00 am

The “20 Questions with Wally Rhines” series finale

During the period from 1997, I had the privilege to work with Greg Hinckley, a superb “out of the box” thinker and excellent operational manager. We had such a common view of the world that we almost always agreed upon the best approach to problems and opportunities … Read More


Carl Icahn Activist Activities

Carl Icahn Activist Activities
by Daniel Nenni on 10-26-2018 at 7:00 am

The “20 Questions with Wally Rhines” series continues

Carl Icahn is a remarkably charming person. You might expect him to be a mean, aggressive adversary but he actually jokes about his foibles, tells stories about interesting people and gently poses questions. “I thought Jerry Yang just didn’t want to sell his Yahoo… Read More