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TSM, Intel fighting over water

Electricity prices for AZ's Palo Verde nuclear plant (which exports power to southern CA) are tracked by commodity exchanges; I can't seem to find the most recent yearly averages, but here's a graph from January 2023; let's just say it's $100 / MWh wholesale prices => $3700 to pump the 10KAF water up one meter.
Pumping water is an ideal use for stranded solar power, of which NV, AZ, and AZ have a crushing load and a queue to infinity for connecting it to the grid. You can do much, much better than baseload prices. Solar can also be used for desalination, though you need some 24/7 base to keep a minimum flow through equipment. Ocean desalination is under $1 per ton which for coastal southern CA can actually be less than the cost of moving that ton over pipes and canals from the Colarado system.
Let's spend the money and buy drip irrigation for the Imperial Valley farmers, so we can use the Colorado River water elsewhere.
Good luck with that. The Imperial Valley farmers have very senior rights and are very cohesive as a political force to resist losing the rights, a battle that has been going on for decades.
 
The Gila River Indian Community (GRIC) directly abuts the west side of Intel's Ocotillo campus, which has Fab 42 as well as the new Fabs 52 and 62 under construction, and is in close proximity to I-10. Aside from the land ownership issues --- technically the title is held by the United States Government in trust for the tribes, and cannot be sold or transferred without permission from the United States Government ---
Most water flowing through a fab can be reclaimed for agricultural quality grey water so there would be a natural fit there of selling water in a scheme which guaranteed it being returned in condition safe for agriculture.
 
Pumping water is an ideal use for stranded solar power, of which NV, AZ, and AZ have a crushing load and a queue to infinity for connecting it to the grid. You can do much, much better than baseload prices.
OK... so you pump when there's plenty of excess power (daytime except for summer afternoon/evenings), and don't pump when the price skyrockets, and have storage along the way so it doesn't matter if the pumping is discontinuous. Good point. We'll pretend the pumping cost is free. (Hmm. CAP prices don't seem to work that way....)

I didn't add any capital expense costs though: it costs $X billion dollars to build the pipeline and we amortize that over N years.
Solar can also be used for desalination, though you need some 24/7 base to keep a minimum flow through equipment. Ocean desalination is under $1 per ton which for coastal southern CA can actually be less than the cost of moving that ton over pipes and canals from the Colarado system.
$1 per ton = 2000 pounds = 239 gallons = 0.000733 acre-feet -> 1000 gallons should cost $1000/239 = $4.18 and 1 acre-foot should cost $1/0.000733 = $1363... yeah, in the same ballpark as the Texas numbers I found ($3.60 - $5.80 / 1000 gallons).

Still pricey.

I could see us getting there, but only if the desalinization technology improves and the cost drops significantly. Let's start with the high-population coastal areas like Orange County in the Gizmodo article you linked, and see where it goes.
Good luck with that. The Imperial Valley farmers have very senior rights and are very cohesive as a political force to resist losing the rights, a battle that has been going on for decades.
That's what we need, luck. And some incentives. Sooner or later something has to change; legal rights to a resource don't help when the resource no longer exists.
 
Possible solutions: Maglev train + giant water pipes from Oregon down to Lake Mead built by illegals and prisoners, along with subcontracting to the Boring company, or... ban lawns, ban pool tablets the increase pool solids, tax properties with pools, ban non desert trees, etc.
 
That's what we need, luck. And some incentives. Sooner or later something has to change; legal rights to a resource don't help when the resource no longer exists.
The seniority system reflects the original resource. The Colorado used to be a real river passing by Imperial valley (and flooding the Salton Sea, which has almost vanished, ecology has no senior rights...) and the farmers there made a deal with great foresight to ensure they kept that resource when dams were built upstream. It is the surging population inland that never really owned the resource (apart from tribal rights shamefully mismanaged by the feds, now partially restored) reflected in their junior rights.

So the resource exists to the extent that Imperial Valley needs it (20% of the flow) and some other senior tiers are well set. The ones who bought a mirage are the new suburbs mostly. A lot of the agriculture adjacent to the dams likely has fairly senior rights.

So the junior tiers do not need luck. They gambled and lost, foolish to repeat that, which ultimately includes juggling moving the watersheds around. They need money and infrastructure. In principle the problem can be solved, and you could even say is a good problem, because those cities are nice places to live and they sprawl without the farming loss or even environmental footprint humans would have in more verdant locations. Also, they have spectacular solar energy resources which can maintain them indefinitely. They just need to invest in providing the infrastructure to build their future. This could include maintaining agriculture of some kinds, with recycled gray water. Desalinated water pumped uphill may be a dollar a ton, but that is not outrageous. 20 cents a day per extravagant urban human, then just the cost of processing for agriculture around the cities.

The kind of imaginative, creative, constructive people the fab business and its suppliers bring are just the sort of spark those cities might need.
 
One thing I read somewhere is that many people were disappointed the feds did not provide stronger direction in today's report. It's a list of potential alternatives and the implication seems to be that they want the states to work it out themselves.
 
JMS, do you have a salt system or use tablets? I am now concerned with my total dissolved solids.
 
One thing I read somewhere is that many people were disappointed the feds did not provide stronger direction in today's report. It's a list of potential alternatives and the implication seems to be that they want the states to work it out themselves.

Under today's political climate I think the Federal Government can't intervene too early otherwise they will become a punching bag for the seven Colorado River basin states without reaching any resolutions. The seven sisters/brothers (the seven States) must go through the painful process themselves to settle on a plan nobody likes.

From the information you and the TV interview provided, it seems to me that the water supply for the City of Phoenix (and TSMC fabs) is relatively safe from the severely shortage for now. Isn't it right?
 
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The simplest method would be simply to charge the market clearing price for water modulo location, peak demand, etc., with the equilibrium set at the desired water level.

But I doubt there's any group with both the will and the cachet to push that through and make it stick, since every resident and business will directly see a price increase on their next utility bill.

The most complicated method would be a hodgepodge of schemes to try to give every interest group what they want while offloading the costs somewhere else. I fear this is also the most likely outcome.
 
As a base case, roughly speaking: All the remaining water in Lake Powell and Mead belong to California and Mexico. They have the rights. There are many side agreements and shell games about storing water that doesn’t exist, but, that’s it.

What AZ has is users, TSMC and Intel, who can, if they have to, outbid the Imperial Valley users for water. The price they will have to pay is an exit price; Tens of billions of dollars. Farms will go to dust so AZ can make chips. That’s a very real, very unexpected added cost of making chips in AZ.
 
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The price they will have to pay is an exit price; Tens of billions of dollars. Farms will go to dust so AZ can make chips. That’s a very real, very unexpected added cost of making chips in AZ.
Farms in AZ (or anywhere in the water-starved West) growing alfalfa are insane.


And for that matter, making chips in AZ isn't the villain any more than golf courses or artificial lakes. From an AZ Republic article:
To examine water consumption on golf courses, The Arizona Republic requested data from the Department of Water Resources under the state’s public records law. The records show 219 golf courses across Arizona used a total of 119,478 acre-feet of water in 2019. The average amount of water used per course was 504 acre-feet during the year, or about 450,000 gallons a day.

More than half of the golf courses pump groundwater, which accounted for about 46% of all golf water use in 2019. Treated effluent from wastewater plants accounted for 27% of water use, while about 15% was Colorado River water from the CAP Canal. The remainder came from other sources.
and a University of Arizona webpage on alfalfa irrigation:

Irrigation amount and frequency will vary depending on weather, soil type, rooting depth and presence of subsoil impervious layers. Most pastures require between 4 and 6 acre-feet per acre of water per growing season.

so one TSMC fab at 10000 acre-feet per year = about 20 golf courses = about 2000 acres of alfalfa pasture.... which is more appropriate/inappropriate? IDK, that's above my pay grade.
 
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I used to think politicians are liars. But in recent years I started thinking the voters or citizens actually encourage them to lie. Gradually there is no or little consequences when a politician lies.
Politics is the science of lying or creating false realities. The lies in every area are increasing at an alarming rate. If lying caused death, politicians would be mute.
 
Politics is the science of lying or creating false realities. The lies in every area are increasing at an alarming rate. If lying caused death, politicians would be mute.
They're like placebos in medicine. Sometimes they work even when everyone involved knows the truth...
 
Washington Post published what I thought is a good article today on issues surrounding Imperial Valley farmers. I am posting the text content for informative purposes, and not to make any particular conclusion/implication.


Water cuts could save the Colorado River. Farmers are in the crosshairs.

California’s Imperial Valley uses more water than several other states combined. Farmers want to avoid big cuts.

By Joshua Partlow
April 16, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

BRAWLEY, Calif. — Alex Jack has spared little expense in the quest to grow vegetables in the desert with less water.

It has cost him $2.5 million over the years to be on the cutting edge of efficiency, installing underground irrigation under alfalfa and lettuce beds, building aerated reservoirs
and a network of pipes and pumps to recycle runoff. But his 3,500-acre farm still guzzles more of the Colorado River each year than some midsize cities.

Now, as the Biden administration moves closer to imposing unprecedented cuts in how much water states can pull from the river, Jack and other commercial farmers in the
sun-scorched flatlands of the Imperial Valley are in the crosshairs of those reductions.

The Imperial Valley — a wedge of desert farmland in Southern California on the Mexican border — uses more of the Colorado River than the states of Utah, Wyoming, Nevada and New Mexico combined. To its critics outside California, it is a logical place to cut: The roughly 400 farms served by the Imperial Irrigation District consume the single largest share of a river that is needed by 40 million people. Some of their major crops, such as alfalfa, require lavish amounts of water and are sold for animal feed, including outside the United States.

And yet, these farmers also have some of the oldest legal rights to that water, dating back more than a century to a time before the creation of the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that now oversees how the river is divvied up. And their fields drive a $4 billion industry that employs tens of thousands of people and puts vegetables in
supermarkets across the country during the winter.

That dynamic has put farmers such as Jack in a powerful, yet precarious, position. There is an ongoing dispute between California and other states of the Colorado River basin about who must bear the brunt of any future reductions. The Interior Department proposed three options for cuts this week, including one that strictly follows water rights, giving priority to the Imperial Valley’s farmers — and potentially letting the portion of the river that goes to Los Angeles and Phoenix draw down to virtually nothing.
Many river experts consider that politically untenable.

“Is the [Imperial Irrigation District] really going to be allowed to grow alfalfa hay and export it while 10 million people in Los Angeles go without?” said Ted Cooke, who
recently retired as the general manager of the Central Arizona Project, which distributes the Colorado River in that state.

“Of course not.”

As the negotiations between the states continue in a bid to prevent the federal government from making unilateral cuts this summer, some farmers are seeking to buy new
land to secure rights to more water. Jack and other farmers have met with Reclamation commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton and wrestled with how much they should be
paid to voluntarily give up a portion of their supply.

The more than $4 billion Reclamation has to spend from the Inflation Reduction Act on drought resilience is attracting a lot of interest among California farmers. But the
Imperial Irrigation District has not yet reached an agreement with the federal government on compensation for cuts. Farmers here say the amounts they’ve heard discussed
do not seem enough to pay for more efficient irrigation practices that could save water long-term. The only option, they say, may be to leave ground fallow. That practice
ripples through the economy as workers lose jobs, suppliers lose business and produce prices rise.

“Fallowing destroys our ag economy,” said Alex Cardenas, president of the Imperial Irrigation District board of directors. “There are alternatives to fallowing. But there’s
significant investment that needs to be made.”

Jack and other farmers in the Imperial Valley say they are willing to negotiate fair compensation but are also ready to defend the lifeblood of their community.

“We have water rights. And we will stand on our water rights,” he added. “If you’re going to fight us, it’s like fighting a warthog. We’ll get in deep and watch our territory.”

Cities and farms face dire trade-offs

On Tuesday, the Biden administration released a 476-page environmental review of the Colorado River and how to handle the fact that the river and its major reservoirs are
drying up. The drought since 2000, the Bureau of Reclamation wrote, has been the driest 23-year period in more than a century, and led to a 20 percent decrease in the river’s natural flows.

Without action, or a meaningful change in those trends, “Colorado River reservoirs will continue to decline to critically low elevations, threatening essential water supplies
across seven states in the United States and two states in Mexico,” the document reads.

The Interior Department proposed two approaches to conserving water to keep major reservoirs of Lake Powell and Lake Mead from crashing. One favors those with senior
water rights, such as the Imperial Valley, and makes deep cuts in Arizona and Nevada; the other would cut the same percentage from all three states.

California has already offered to cut back on 400,000 acre-feet of water, with 250,000 of that coming from the Imperial Valley, about 10 percent of its annual usage. If
Interior chose its alternative for equal cuts across states, that could mean more than half a million acre feet of additional cuts for California next year. The Imperial Valley
would likely shoulder a large portion of that.

That alternative “might seem politically good-sounding, because it’s equal cuts for everyone,” JB Hamby, California’s Colorado River commissioner, said in an interview. “But
it’s not on solid legal foundation whatsoever, because it sidesteps the established law of the river.”

Hamby said the goal for California is still to reach an agreement among the other Colorado River states rather than choosing one of the federal alternatives. The bountiful
snowfall in the West will likely make the cuts this year a lot less severe than they might have been.

“Had we had another runoff this year that was more like last year and the year before, we would be in a world of hurt at this point,” he said.

Interior’s other alternative, also cutting up to 2 million acre feet in 2024 across three states but doing so following strict water-rights priority, would hit hard in Arizona and
Nevada, as well as major cities in California. Arizona, which due to court rulings and legislation decades ago, has a smaller allocation of the river than California and has to
relinquish it first in times of shortage.

If reservoirs fell to the lowest levels, under that plan, Arizona could lose more than 1.7 million-acre feet of its 2.8 million acre-feet allocation next year. By priority, that would
leave the Central Arizona Project — which supplies some 6 million people in Phoenix, Tucson, and elsewhere — with little left.

An acre-foot is 326,000 gallons, or enough to cover an acre in one foot of water.

Brenda Burman, general manager of the Central Arizona Project, argued that farmers in the Imperial Valley need to sacrifice because they depend on the reservoirs and
canals, built by the federal government, that afford them their reliable supply of water.

She noted that before those reservoirs and canals were built, farmers in the Southwest, including in the Imperial Valley, suffered from floods and droughts and an unreliable
water supply.

“We all benefit from the infrastructure,” said Burman, who led Reclamation during the Trump administration. “And I think it’s up to all of us to protect that infrastructure.”

That means keeping enough water in Lake Powell and Lake Mead so that those reservoirs don’t fall below critical thresholds. Lake Powell’s water level is currently just 30 feet above the point where Glen Canyon Dam would not be able to produce electricity for its 4.5 million customers. The bountiful snows that blessed the West this year point to a good year of runoff, pushing that outcome further into the future.

But the Interior Department’s analysis says that without action, or a meaningful change in the hydrology trends, the major reservoirs could continue to fall toward “dead
pool,” where water could not reliably flow past Lake Powell or Lake Mead.

All the basin states have reason to avoid that outcome, including the farmers here.

“Agriculture in the Desert Southwest could be ruined forever,” said Craig Elmore, a third generation farmer in the Imperial Valley.

Farmers face a massive change in operations

Elmore’s grandfather came to the Imperial Valley from Missouri in 1908 to dig the canals that would help transform the parched desert ground into the verdant checkerboard
of commercial farms. Elmore now grows lettuce, corn, carrots and other crops on about 7,000 acres and his main operation — Elmore Desert Ranch — is one of the largest
contiguous farms the valley.

It sits on the edge of the Salton Sea, an ancient seabed that refilled in 1905 when the Colorado River burst through a dike and flooded the area. Over the past two decades of drought, the lake has receded dramatically. That happened after the Imperial Valley began transferring portions of its water to cities in Southern California. As farm runoff
declined, less reaches the lake. Twenty years ago, big berms around Elmore’s fields used to keep the salty lake water off his vegetables. Now the shore is a couple miles away.

It’s a hot and dusty place — one where farmworkers and residents deal with asthma and other chronic health problems from the dust mixed with old pesticides and farm
chemicals that regularly whips through the area. Any proposed cutbacks of water here also must take into account how they might aggravate the problem.

The federal government in November pledged $250 million for programs to grow vegetation around the Salton Sea to try to tamp down the dust as a precursor for the
Imperial Valley agreeing to conserve some amount of water. But experts say a lasting solution to the Salton Sea, if there is one, would be vastly more costly.

For Elmore, 65, the expectation that he will need to use less than the roughly 39,000 acre-feet of water that typically goes to his fields — without yet knowing how much — has made planning difficult.

This year, he’s bought hundreds of acres of land and been hunting for more, not to expand his vegetable operation but to secure additional water rights ahead of coming cuts.

During a recent tour of his farm, the phone rang as he was driving. It was one of his employees, who had gone out to look at a possible plot.

“Half of it’s in sugar cane. Half of it has bushes and trees all over it,” the employee reported back. “The ditch is pretty beat up.”

“Oh, it’s terrible,” Elmore replied. “Alrighty.”

Prices now are far above what he’s spent for land in the past, but not having enough water could be more costly.

“If we do get cut real bad, and I have to start moving water from one field to another, I want to be able to keep my program going,” Elmore said. “Two years ago, I would never have done that.”

Some farmers in Imperial Valley say they expect to leave portions of their ground fallow. Others will likely rebalance which crops they plant and for how long. Alfalfa, one of
the most water-intensive crops, can be cut here multiple times per year, so farmers could reduce the number of cuttings while still producing some crop.

The role of alfalfa has become increasingly controversial as water supplies diminish, but farmers here defend it as a crucial crop for the country and their livelihoods.

Larry Cox farms some 4,000 acres in the Imperial Valley, about half of it in alfalfa and other forage crops to feed cattle. Some gets exported to China, Saudi Arabia and
elsewhere, he said. His farm uses 27,000 acre-feet of Colorado River water per year, more than a quarter of what Tucson’s half million people consume.
“When you sit back and take a look at the value alfalfa has or the place its playing in our food chain: It’s critical,” Cox said. “From milk to baby formula to cheese on pizza.
Even the top of the food chain: ice cream. You reduce the supply of alfalfa by 20 percent, you raise the price. What does that do to the cost of a gallon of milk?”
 
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