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Morris Chang predicts that the U.S. chip industry will explode in 2030

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, had previously prophesied that the manufacturing cost is too high and there is a lack of relevant talents to set up a factory in the United States.  Figure / photo of this newspaper


Zhang Zhongmou (Morris Chang), the founder of TSMC, had previously prophesied that "the manufacturing cost is too high and there is a lack of relevant talents" to set up a factory in the United States. Figure / photo of this newspaper

Affected by the lack of installed professionals, TSMC recently admitted that the mass production of the U.S. plant will be delayed by one year to 2025. At the same time, the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) also warned that the US semiconductor industry will be short of 67,000 workers in 2030, which will impact the US' efforts to revitalize the chip industry. The above news confirms TSMC founder Zhang Zhongmou's previous prophecy that "the manufacturing cost is too high and there is a lack of relevant talents" to set up a factory in the United States.

According to a study by SIA and Oxford Economics in the United States, based on the current student graduation rate, by 2030, there will be a talent gap of about 67,000 in the US semiconductor industry, among which computer scientists, engineers and technicians will have the most severe talent shortage. , the overall U.S. economy-related talent gap is as high as 1.4 million people. About half of the jobs in the future chip industry will be engineers.

SIA CEO John Neuffer said that semiconductor talents have always been the driving force of growth and innovation in the chip industry and the US economy. He believes that the short-term solution is to adjust immigration policies to retain and attract more talented people from all over the world.

In fact, chip companies have been struggling to find suitable employees in the United States. TSMC stated at the conference last week that the Arizona plant in the United States is currently facing some challenges. Due to the shortage of skilled installed personnel, the time for mass production of the 4nm process will be postponed from the end of 2024 to 2025.

Zhang Zhongmou has repeatedly warned that setting up factories in the United States lacks talents and the cost is too high. The Brookings Institution, an important think tank in the United States, interviewed Zhang Zhongmou on the Podcast program in mid-April last year to share the history of establishing the world's largest wafer foundry. He mentioned that the United States has the world's best talents in chip design, but faces a serious shortage of talents in chip manufacturing. In addition, the cost of manufacturing chips in the United States is 50% more expensive than that in Taiwan. It is difficult to compete with the world. It is expensive and futile. lift.

Zhang Zhongmou also cited TSMC's 25 years of manufacturing experience in the Oregon factory in the United States as an example. The cost of developing wafer manufacturing in the United States is too high and too wasteful. In the past, TSMC has arranged American and foreign personnel for the Oregon factory many times, but There is no way to reduce the cost too much. Although the Oregon plant can make a profit, it has almost given up the expansion plan.

 
Still calling the TSMC WaferTech facility in Camas, Washington "the Oregon plant" after more than 25 years. Go Morris! I really like the "wasteful" quote too. I agree with Morris, I wouldn't expand in Camas either.
Due to the shortage of skilled installed personnel, the time for mass production of the 4nm process will be postponed from the end of 2024 to 2025.
I totally understand, no one has ever built fabs in Arizona before. :rolleyes: I wonder how Intel is planning to do it in central Ohio?
 
What is this forums take on the skilled labor gap by 2030? Is the US training enough / attracting enough qualified engineers to keep future fabs working well as the population ages?

Not directly comparable but going from the worlds largest defense contractor to ‘another defense contractor’, the reduction in engineering talent was quite obvious.. however corporate culture can make a big difference on how good your talent becomes over time.
 
What is this forums take on the skilled labor gap by 2030? Is the US training enough / attracting enough qualified engineers to keep future fabs working well as the population ages?
One easy fix would be rationalize our absolutely asinine immigration laws. US universities graduate a lot of engineering students from other countries, and then we make it difficult for these highly qualified immigrants to become citizens. So dumb. Part of the CHIPS Act is to promote and fund semiconductor education programs in universities, so there is some hope. The main things that attract Americans to specific careers are high salaries and lots of job opportunities. That helps explain why we lead the world in chip design and software development.
 
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What is this forums take on the skilled labor gap by 2030? Is the US training enough / attracting enough qualified engineers to keep future fabs working well as the population ages?

Not directly comparable but going from the worlds largest defense contractor to ‘another defense contractor’, the reduction in engineering talent was quite obvious.. however corporate culture can make a big difference on how good your talent becomes over time.
I mean there is a STEM talent shortage across the whole world, so thinking there will be one in the US semi industry is not exactly shocking. If you look at the wording they weren't talking manufacturing only, but also talking about software and design. My guess is these activities will continue to be the main area with the largest employment shortfall. Given fabs aren't that manpower intensive (intel Ohio was like 3k direct employees if memory serves), the shear number of world class universities in the US, huge DOD veteran pool, and the breadth of talent that can be pulled from the chemical and manufacturing industry; I think the supply of workers on the manufacturing side won't be much (if any) worse off than it already is. The one area of concern for these firms would be paying the price to actual get the talent they need. Folks like the petrol industry pays handsomely, so if you want to get the best in the US, you can't do the TSMC/Samsung thing and assume the best will come to you for cheap salaries just for the prestige/lack of other choices outside the semi industry.
 
In the US we have skilled worker shortages in many different sectors, teachers and airline pilots are in the news today. Industry partnerships with universities is key. That is how TSMC does it in Taiwan and Intel does it in the US. I was heavily recruited by Silicon Valley companies during my undergraduate studies and Intel was one of them. Also the computer companies DEC, IBM, and HP As they drove the semiconductor industry back then.

One of the observations people have had about the latest live semiconductor ecosystem conferences is the influx of students, which of course is a good thing.

I’m okay with the chicken little sky is falling stuff because it helps get the STEM word out but I am not really concerned about it. AI will in fact streamline jobs so students will need to choose majors more carefully and semiconductors are a good choice, better than ever before, my opinion.
 
I’m okay with the chicken little sky is falling stuff because it helps get the STEM word out but I am not really concerned about it. AI will in fact streamline jobs so students will need to choose majors more carefully and semiconductors are a good choice, better than ever before, my opinion.
I agree. I think the US makes the most progress when we're paranoid about something another country is up to.
 
When I first read the title I thought we were talking about a semiconductor boom in 2030. That is much more likely than anything Morris said here.

How did you translate the original article from Chinese to English? From the content it seems the title should be translated into something like "By 2030 US Semiconductor Industry will face serious (or disastrous) labor shortage".

Also Morris Chang didn't predict the 2030 at all.
 
How did you translate the original article from Chinese to English? From the content it seems the title should be translated into something like "By 2030 US Semiconductor Industry will face serious (or disastrous) labor shortage".

Also Morris Chang didn't predict the 2030 at all.

Google translated it. Not surprised, that title would make much more sense. Here is a screen shot, I changed the name:

ZHANG Zhongmou.jpg
 
Google translated it. Not surprised, that title would make much more sense. Here is a screen shot, I changed the name:

View attachment 1326

Recently I read a 100+ pages training guide. It was translated from English to Chinese using the Google Translate by a trainee.

The trainer called those tools and materials used in the training as training aids.

Google simply translated the English word "aids" to the equivalence of "HIV" in Chinese.
 

Columbus 'Workforce Hub' aims to help Intel fill semiconductor industry's labor gap​


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Columbus higher education institutions open their first Intel-geared courses for enrollment this fall, trying to help Central Ohio fill the huge labor gap projected by the U.S. semiconductor industry.

The construction boom for domestic chipmaking capacity, backed by federal funding, is expected to create 115,000 new high-paying jobs nationwide over the next seven years, according to a report released last week by the Semiconductor Industry Association. But 67,000 of those – 58% – won't have available candidates at the country's current rate of degree completion in the field.

 
Google translated it. Not surprised, that title would make much more sense. Here is a screen shot, I changed the name:
A little late to the party but I guess this is the product of mainstream clickbait media. Taken literally the title says Morris Chang Divine Prophecy; US chip industry self expose disastrous situtation in 2030. To which I guess Morris Chang predicts that the U.S. chip industry will explode in 2030 serves a similar purpose :ROFLMAO:

As Xebec and hist mentioned the content targets more along the lines of By 2030 US Semiconductor Industry will face serious (or disastrous) labor shortage, Morris was only brought up because previously he mentioned the high cost and lack of talent to set up factory in the US.
 
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