Intel CEO Visiting Taiwan and Japan in Tour of Asian Suppliers

[hist78]

Considering both Japan and Taiwan are still enforcing various degrees of pandemic border entry control that make business travel more complicated, I guess Pat Gelsinger is seriously negotiating something.

Intel CEO Visiting Taiwan and Japan in Tour of Asian Suppliers

(Bloomberg) -- Intel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger is on the move visiting customers and suppliers in Asia in an attempt to shake up an industry that’s fallen victim to a global pandemic and geopolitical ructions.Most Read from BloombergCanada to Ban Foreigners From Buying Homes as...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[prime007]

I'm wondering if its due to the equipment delays from ASML, Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research. Nikkei Asia reported that the leading chip tool makers warned that they "may have to wait up to 18 months for some crucial machines".
Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Te...ansion-plans-at-risk-as-equipment-delays-grow

That might delay Intel's 'IDM 2.0' strategy and perhaps make Intel a bit more reliant on TSMC a bit longer? I think @VCT previously speculated that Intel may need to decide next year regarding a 2025 contract. Perhaps Intel has decided to commit to the 2025 contract because of the shortage of chip equipment and (maybe although we'll probably never know) concerns of the 20A/18A yield?

TSMC's earnings call is next week (4/14) so hopefully we might get some information regarding the meeting.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

I'm wondering if its due to the equipment delays from ASML, Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research. Nikkei Asia reported that the leading chip tool makers warned that they "may have to wait up to 18 months for some crucial machines".
Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Te...ansion-plans-at-risk-as-equipment-delays-grow
That might delay Intel's 'IDM 2.0' strategy and perhaps make Intel a bit more reliant on TSMC a bit longer? I think @VCT previously speculated that Intel may need to decide next year regarding a 2025 contract. Perhaps Intel has decided to commit to the 2025 contract because of the shortage of chip equipment and (maybe although we'll probably never know) concerns of the 20A/18A yield?
TSMC's earnings call is next week (4/14) so hopefully we might get some information regarding the meeting.

Either Intel is expecting a revenue surge or they are expecting manufacturing delays. Maybe both? I'm wondering why Intel is not spreading the wealth to Samsung to keep TSMC in check? I know Intel had a foundry team in Seoul and Hsinchu doing diligence a couple years back. It looks like Intel is sole sourcing to TSMC which certainly has advantages. How long until Intel is TSMC's #1 customer?

 

[fansink]

I'm wondering why Intel is not spreading the wealth to Samsung to keep TSMC in check?

Samsung’s 5nm and 4nm yields of ~35%, where Samsung admittedly lied and sold as ~70% yields, has damaged their commercial character, and substantially increased client risk.

Further, CEO’s (as well as all upper management) have a fiduciary duty to their company and their shareholders, and would be rightfully blamed for undue risk, if things go south.

Further yet, Samsung has moved to GAAFET construction for their 3nm, and given its infancy, likely has significantly lower yields than their FinFETs, which also translates to increased client risk.

 

[hist78]

Samsung’s 5nm and 4nm yields of ~35%, where Samsung admittedly lied and sold as ~70% yields, has damaged their commercial character, and substantially increased client risk.

Further, CEO’s (as well as all upper management) have a fiduciary duty to their company and their shareholders, and would be rightfully blamed for undue risk, if things go south.

Further yet, Samsung has moved to GAAFET construction for their 3nm, and given its infancy, likely has significantly lower yields than their FinFETs, which also translates to increased client risk.

Trust and relationship are critical in the fabless-foundry business model. I think it may be more critical than the technical and financial sides of considerations.

 

[fansink]

Trust and relationship are critical in the fabless-foundry business model.

The primary point to my statement is that the legal risk is likely greater than trust and camaraderie aspect.

 

[VCT]

I'm wondering if its due to the equipment delays from ASML, Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research. Nikkei Asia reported that the leading chip tool makers warned that they "may have to wait up to 18 months for some crucial machines".
Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Te...ansion-plans-at-risk-as-equipment-delays-grow

That might delay Intel's 'IDM 2.0' strategy and perhaps make Intel a bit more reliant on TSMC a bit longer? I think @VCT previously speculated that Intel may need to decide next year regarding a 2025 contract. Perhaps Intel has decided to commit to the 2025 contract because of the shortage of chip equipment and (maybe although we'll probably never know) concerns of the 20A/18A yield?

TSMC's earnings call is next week (4/14) so hopefully we might get some information regarding the meeting.

RUMOR: TSMC already quote Intel 2025 price during Pat's last visit Taiwan in Dec 2022.

My personal speculation (no inside information): I believe Intel have to decide this year for 2025 capacity. (The leadtime of EUV is getting longer). That could be one of the reason Intel CEO visit TSMC again now. Last December TSMC quote a very expensive price and also huge and strict prepayment to Intel. Intel CEO is not satisfied about the term for sure but I guess he doesn't have other choice.

Every normal people will offer a more expensive price to Intel (as a potential competitor) but it will be contradict to Morris Chang's basic rule to be 100% fair to all customers.

Morris Chang claimed he will not advise any TSMC decision because he no longer have enough update information. However, current TSMC chairman and CEO did report to Morris about getting the core Intel order. Morris Chang told them don't be too optimistic and it's not that easy. Intel won't give up the most advance and core part.

 

[hist78]

I think Pat Gelsinger is probably knowing better now that good relationship with your partners is better than to bash them publicly.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-ceo-visits-tsmc-again-to-secure-extra-production-capacity