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Digitimes: Intel N3 order to TSMC delay one year

You are referring to this article from Digitimes? I will get an update from TSMC tomorrow so I will let you know. Digitimes does not always get it right and I think this is one of those times.

TSMC, Samsung face difficulty in ramping up 3nm chip production​

Monica Chen, Hsinchu; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES AsiaTuesday 25 October 20220
Credit: DIGITIMES
Both TSMC and Samsung Electronics are seeing their production scale for 3nm chips constrained due to difficulty in having good control of orders from big clients, and their capacity utilizations for sub-7nm process nodes are also being affected by the latest US semiconductor trade sanctions against China, according to industry sources. TSMC has moved to encourage its employees to take vacations and spend more time with families, the sources added.

TSMC was originally set to start volume production of 3nm chips for both Apple and Intel in the second half of 2022. But as Intel reportedly will continue to delay its launch of new CPUs for at least one year, TSMC is unlikely to fulfill orders from the US chipmaker this year, leaving Apple as the only client for its N3 (3nm) technology used to build new Mac and iPad processors, the sources said.

TSMC's N3E (3nm enhanced) technology slated for volume production in 2023 will also mainly serve new iPhone APs and MaC chipsets. Other fabless clients like AMD, Nvidia, MediaTek, Qualcomm and Broadcom are expected to successively enter 3nm era only after 2024, depending on their market conditions, the sources continued.

TSMC has projected that the 3nm process will trim its gross margin by 2-3 percentage points in 2023 due to cost increases. This, coupled with high inflation, rising construction costs for overseas fabs, Intel's delay in 3nm wafer starts, and sluggish consumer electronics market demand, will certainly impact the foundry's business performance, sources noted.

TSMC has recently suspended production of advanced AI GPU chips for Chinese startup Biren Technology to ensure compliance with US regulations, and it is also evaluating whether to fulfill 7/5nm chip orders from other Chinese IC designers including Bitman Technology, T-Head Semiconductor and Horizon Robotics in accordance with the new US restrictions on China-bound advanced chips.

Apparently in response to the ongoing semiconductor market downturn and impacts of US trade sanctions on China, TSMC's CEO CC Wei has recently released an internal message encouraging colleagues to take vacations at the moment to recharge themselves, and then come back to continue working hard.

While it is hard for TSMC to find more 3nm clients for the moment, it's even more difficult for Samsung to do so. In late June this year, Samsung landed its first 3nm chip order from China startup PanSemi, a maker of Bitcoin mining chips, but it also has no choice but to halt volume production for the Chinese client so as not to violate US regulations, the sources said.

Among the few 3nm process clients of Samsung, Google has decided to have its 3nm APs for its Pixel series handsets manufactured by the Korean maker due mainly to low foundry quotes. For Samsung, the Google orders, despite reaching just millions units, can more or less fill its production capacity, although it has to lose money to fulfill the orders.

Meanwhile, Samsung has also scaled back production of 5/4/3nm APs for its own flagship smartphones due to high costs and yield issues, and will adopt more Qualcomm offerings as part of its efforts to win more orders from the US mobile SoC specialist to bolster its capacity utilization for advanced process nodes.

Industry sources said that China's top foundry SMIC and other domestic peers are expected to stay put at the 28nm chip era as their R&D momentum is being greatly deterred by the US restrictions on China-bound exports of advanced manufacturing equipment and related software tools and services.

For TSMC and Samsung, their capacity utilization for sub-7 process nodes are being more or less affected as they could hardly deliver advanced chips to Chinese clients before the US restrictions are lifted. In addition, Chinese chip designers will also be ruled out as their future potential clients for 3nm process technology, which will make it longer for TSMC and Samsung to recoup their huge investments in the process segment.
 
Hi Daniel,
Yes.
I believe it's highly possible since I did not see new huge prepayment in TSMC's latest financial report.
The prepayment from Intel could be $10B to $15B which should be 1 year before MP.
 
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