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For a price anything can be obtained. For a price far cheaper than war, China could obtain EUV. War is staggeringly expensive and for a fraction of this cost, about 20 to 30 billion I have no doubt China could obtain the technology and materials to build their own and this would be a small fraction of the direct and indirect cost of a war, which would easily past a hundred billion in direct and indirect costs. War is the last refuge of the incompetent. Look at the true total cost of the Viet Nam war and adjust it for inflation cost one trillion dollars. That could buy a lot of people, materials and expertise. Any thoughts, comments or counter arguments appreciated and sought. Israel stole the plans and manufacturing methods of the French Mirage Fighter at low cost and I'm sure the Chinese could study this and learn.
For a price anything can be obtained. For a price far cheaper than war, China could obtain EUV. War is staggeringly expensive and for a fraction of this cost, about 20 to 30 billion I have no doubt China could obtain the technology and materials to build their own and this would be a small fraction of the direct and indirect cost of a war, which would easily past a hundred billion in direct and indirect costs. War is the last refuge of the incompetent. Look at the true total cost of the Viet Nam war and adjust it for inflation cost one trillion dollars. That could buy a lot of people, materials and expertise. Any thoughts, comments or counter arguments appreciated and sought. Israel stole the plans and manufacturing methods of the French Mirage Fighter at low cost and I'm sure the Chinese could study this and learn.
The CCP has gone off the rails under Xi and is no longer operating as a rational actor. Think of Mao. He did things that were objectively not in the country’s interest for ideology and power. Xi is following the same path. Taiwan is another issue that is not at all rational for the mainlanders to take on but they continue to do so for ideological and emotional reasons.
$20-30B plus two decades of development. That is how long it took ASML, and they were already the #1 in development and experience making scanners. A war is only a year or less. If you mean taking over Taiwan, that would likely be done in a matter of weeks. However, that would also trigger a huge backlash, likely including a complete block from ASML not just for EUV, but everything and neither TSMC nor SMIC can afford that. "Acquiring TSMC" via war is not a feasible strategy. Plus all sorts of other commercial and political blocks. I believe THAT is what is preventative to war, not the cost. As for developing their own, I am sure they're already working on it...
$20-30B plus two decades of development. That is how long it took ASML, and they were already the #1 in development and experience making scanners. A war is only a year or less. If you mean taking over Taiwan, that would likely be done in a matter of weeks. However, that would also trigger a huge backlash, likely including a complete block from ASML not just for EUV, but everything and neither TSMC nor SMIC can afford that. "Acquiring TSMC" via war is not a feasible strategy. Plus all sorts of other commercial and political blocks. I believe THAT is what is preventative to war, not the cost. As for developing their own, I am sure they're already working on it...
People and materials can be bought no matter how restricted. Some Russians were willing to sell a submarine with missiles as one connected drug smuggler proved to get his charges dropped. Seems that showing it could be done and how was of far, far more value than keeping some drugs off the street. A very dangerous move, but he came back with photographic evidence and a price list. The old phrase money talks and big money talks loudly is true and always will be.
$20-30B plus two decades of development. That is how long it took ASML, and they were already the #1 in development and experience making scanners. A war is only a year or less. If you mean taking over Taiwan, that would likely be done in a matter of weeks. However, that would also trigger a huge backlash, likely including a complete block from ASML not just for EUV, but everything and neither TSMC nor SMIC can afford that. "Acquiring TSMC" via war is not a feasible strategy. Plus all sorts of other commercial and political blocks. I believe THAT is what is preventative to war, not the cost. As for developing their own, I am sure they're already working on it...
Industrial espionage is but one of many methods and if done correctly, can be done on the cheap. I knew some truckers who took on a super major tech company by going to the same bars their engineers did and discovered they were committing fraud against their customers and figured a way to take advantage of it. This I had my hands on directly after the fact and they made a lot of money compared to trucking. This gave me a total dislike of the major tech company and made me realize they would never again be the major power they once were. This was not the only fraud they were involved in. I buried one of their projects by the state attorney general, who had me go the city attorney involved and the fraud was corrected after I left the company. They wanted to put my name on the fraud is why I had to do this. Another tech company backed me up big time on this and I still do personal business with them to this day. The company shall remain nameless for obvious reasons, even though this was many years ago.
