40% of Samsung NAND, 40% of SK Hynix DRAM to be affected by US sanctions

[Fred Chen]

US Sanctions Against China's Chip Sector Could Impact Samsung and SK Hynix

What happens when the waiver ends?

www.tomshardware.com

Most of the products made by Samsung and SK Hynix in China are sold to big product makers like Apple and Lenovo, so if the two South Korean companies leave China, this will have a global impact.

All of the products from Solidigm (formerly Intel's NAND, now acquired by SK Hynix, including Fab 68 in Dalien), should also be included.

 

[liangiyy]

They won't leave China, they have made billions of dollars investment in China and China won't let them leave.

 

[Fred Chen]

Why one year waiver? Should have been no time limit.

 

[benb]

It's not so clear, I think, on reflection.
I think, net, in due time two things will happen. First, the US passported persons issue will be sorted out. Second, there will be a Chinese part for every Western part. Then they won't have to worry about shutting the fab down due to Western parts being unavailable.
I think the object is not to render existing fabs inoperable, which would be devastating to Samsung and Hynix, but to force them to think seriously about a location outside China for the next fab.

 

[Jert]

It's not so clear, I think, on reflection.
I think, net, in due time two things will happen. First, the US passported persons issue will be sorted out. Second, there will be a Chinese part for every Western part. Then they won't have to worry about shutting the fab down due to Western parts being unavailable.
I think the object is not to render existing fabs inoperable, which would be devastating to Samsung and Hynix, but to force them to think seriously about a location outside China for the next fab.

Yes. What has been done, is done. The new restrictions will impact more on future decisions / fab locations.

One would think that the Korean memories maybe by far the biggest benefiters from these new US restrictions? Seems China memories, now decapitated, were catching up fast and by far were the biggest existential threat to the Koreans memories, in my opinion. Now that threat is basically gone. I am puzzled why Korean companies shedding tears, or is it just a show?

In addition, semiconductor at the end is still a zero sum game. Chips not made in China, will soon be made somewhere else to fulfill the demand, as long as demand is still there. Only if the Chinese economy completely collapse and thus demand for chips is gone (or big significant portion of it gone), then it will hurt everyone in the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Otherwise, no worries, the revenues will eventually come back....

 

[Fred Chen]

Yes. What has been done, is done. The new restrictions will impact more on future decisions / fab locations.

One would think that the Korean memories maybe by far the biggest benefiters from these new US restrictions? Seems China memories, now decapitated, were catching up fast and by far were the biggest existential threat to the Koreans memories, in my opinion. Now that threat is basically gone. I am puzzled why Korean companies shedding tears, or is it just a show?

In addition, semiconductor at the end is still a zero sum game. Chips not made in China, will soon be made somewhere else to fulfill the demand, as long as demand is still there. Only if the Chinese economy completely collapse and thus demand for chips is gone (or big significant portion of it gone), then it will hurt everyone in the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Otherwise, no worries, the revenues will eventually come back....

The impact on Korean companies is bigger than on China since Chinese chipmakers didn't provide that much for China anyway. https://apnews.com/article/technolo...-south-korea-5a9c97076654592badb2256103618d15

 

[nickw]

Yes. What has been done, is done. The new restrictions will impact more on future decisions / fab locations.

One would think that the Korean memories maybe by far the biggest benefiters from these new US restrictions? Seems China memories, now decapitated, were catching up fast and by far were the biggest existential threat to the Koreans memories, in my opinion. Now that threat is basically gone. I am puzzled why Korean companies shedding tears, or is it just a show?

In addition, semiconductor at the end is still a zero sum game. Chips not made in China, will soon be made somewhere else to fulfill the demand, as long as demand is still there. Only if the Chinese economy completely collapse and thus demand for chips is gone (or big significant portion of it gone), then it will hurt everyone in the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Otherwise, no worries, the revenues will eventually come back....

I have a hard time believing the extremely competitive Chinese engineers can be forced out of the semiconductor market by a US embargo. It will not happen. The US should think instead about staying competitive themselves rather than trying to cripple their competitors.

 

[hist78]

I have a hard time believing the extremely competitive Chinese engineers can be forced out of the semiconductor market by a US embargo. It will not happen. The US should think instead about staying competitive themselves rather than trying to cripple their competitors.

Don't you think when Mr. Xi and CCP/PRC want to invade a democratic Taiwan, Republic of China, anything that can cripple Mr. Xi's war machine is a good thing?

It not only protects Taiwan but also save countless Chinese who may be forced to give up their lives for Mr. Xi's twisted glory.

 

[nickw]

That makes the US China Embargo a pre-emptive strike. How does that reduce the likelihood of a China invasion of Taiwan.

 

[Paul2]

US Sanctions Against China's Chip Sector Could Impact Samsung and SK Hynix

What happens when the waiver ends?

www.tomshardware.com

Most of the products made by Samsung and SK Hynix in China are sold to big product makers like Apple and Lenovo, so if the two South Korean companies leave China, this will have a global impact.

All of the products from Solidigm (formerly Intel's NAND, now acquired by SK Hynix, including Fab 68 in Dalien), should also be included.

It still boggles my mind Samsung went to build a fab in China just for Apple only.

Also, it only hits me now why Apple been only getting such old die designs from Samsung for iDevices for all those years — they needed to be manufacturable in Samsung's China fab. And with a captive client, they didn't really need latest, and greatest die designs for as long as they work.

 

[benb]

Apple buys the best part from whoever makes it, and right now, YMTC has the hot 3D NAND part. It's not me-too or copy-cat, it's genuinely better tech. They won't be able to produce it without Lam technology though, so it's a loss to everyone; Lam, China, and people like me who want progress. I think Lam technology can be duplicated eventually but not in less than 7 or 10 years. It's a situation where the investment is great, patent protection is needed, and that takes years.

This isn't decapitation, the sub-16nm ban is a clarification of existing 2.5 generational restriction on dual use (meaning it has both military and commercial applications) technology in China.

I wouldn't stay in China if I could help it. I recommend getting out of China and working elsewhere.

I would recommend the US expand visas for Chinese engineers impacted by the trade war, and basically do what the US has done recently with Afghan migrants, for Chinese engineers. We should drain the brain of China, and help talented individuals. I think Taiwan, Korea and Japan should do the same thing.

 

[hist78]

That makes the US China Embargo a pre-emptive strike. How does that reduce the likelihood of a China invasion of Taiwan.

This is not a preemptive strike. It's a so called decoupling. BTW, have you read recent news that CCP shot missiles to the ocean around Taiwan and threatened to shoot down the airplane that carried Nancy Pelosi? This is ridiculously dangerous.

Anything that can cripple Xi's war machine is a good thing. Otherwise, how do you think Xi's dangerous behavior and dictatorship should be treated?

 

[blueone]

This is not a preemptive strike. It's a so called decoupling. BTW, have you read recent news that CCP shot missiles to the ocean around Taiwan and threatened to shoot down the airplane that carried Nancy Pelosi? This is ridiculously dangerous.

Anything that can cripple Xi's war machine is a good thing. Otherwise, how do you think Xi's dangerous behavior and dictatorship should be treated?

These are good points, but I'm not sure the US, where public opinion matters and decides elections, is emotionally ready to pick a fight with a dictator who clearly does not care about his domestic economy or public opinion. If it comes to any sort of confrontation, China will probably get hurt more than the US and its allies, but we're much more sensitive to pain.

 

[Paul2]

Apple buys the best part from whoever makes it, and right now, YMTC has the hot 3D NAND part.

The hot YMTC cell tech is 2-3 generations behind Samsung's. Fabbing drive circuitry on a separate die from flash is not something innovative, but a significant economic disadvantage because you have to bond, and test such an insignificant piece of circuitry because your process can't do CMOS in one go with flash cells.

 

[hist78]

These are good points, but I'm not sure the US, where public opinion matters and decides elections, is emotionally ready to pick a fight with a dictator who clearly does not care about his domestic economy or public opinion. If it comes to any sort of confrontation, China will probably get hurt more than the US and its allies, but we're much more sensitive to pain.

That's why to prevent CCP tand Mr. Xi to starting a war is so important now. When CCP and Xi see they have no chance to win and a war will cripple their regime, they will stop.