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I have seen both 5 and 8years in the past, and I agree 5 years sounds more realistic. My original post looked at both 5 year and 8year modelling, and 50% or 60% GM target
At 5 year depreciation, and 60% GM target, and assuming 30% government subsidies , the wafer price for a TSMC customer...
Good point on the subsidies - at a rate of 30% co-investment by the government, the prices would go down to $14.3K per wafer in a model with 8 year depreciation of the equipment and 50% GM.
There is the yield aspect yes, but there is also a capacity aspect.
At smaller fab sizes (like 20k WSPM), you have significant overcapacity in some areas - an equipment-side example: you may need 4 pieces of a specific type of equipment that can support 6k WSPM per piece of equipment - because...
After following the discussion about wafer pricing for 3nm TSMC wafers in another thread, I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation based on the numbers TSMC released about their Arizona Investment, depreciation assumptions and an assumption on the split between facilities and equipment invest...
