Array ( [content] => [params] => Array ( [0] => /forum/index.php?threads/how-asml-tsmc-and-intel-dominate-the-chip-market.16613/ ) [addOns] => Array ( [DL6/MLTP] => 13 [Hampel/TimeZoneDebug] => 1000070 [SV/ChangePostDate] => 2010200 [SemiWiki/Newsletter] => 1000010 [SemiWiki/WPMenu] => 1000010 [SemiWiki/XPressExtend] => 1000010 [ThemeHouse/XLink] => 1000970 [ThemeHouse/XPress] => 1010570 [XF] => 2021370 [XFI] => 1050270 ) [wordpress] => /var/www/html )
It’s not bad.
What’s missing is semiconductor economics, the thing driving ASML, Intel and TSMC. Why they spend the money and build the fabs, at such a huge expense.
Who can answer such a big, basic question though? Who has the expertise?
Now it's "Real countries have fabs".I think part of it is ego. Remember the "Real men have fabs" era?
Clearly it should have been. Questionable report in all.Samsung was not covered?
So this will be partly in jest, partly in earnest:"Who can answer such a big, basic question though? Who has the expertise?"
I guess everyone on this Semiwiki?
Seriously, I think there are multiple reasons for it.
So this will be partly in jest, partly in earnest:
If I was a semiconductor economist, I would start with Malcolm Penn’s 4 indicators
1. The overall economy
2. Unit sales
3. ASP
4. Capacity
So the model would be, build fabs when ASPs are high, capacity is low, unit sales are predicted to rise, and the economy is stable.
The complication is, it takes 1-2 years for investments to bear fruit, and in 1-2 years circumstances will be different. So a long term contract is an insurance policy.
Long term contracts must be plentiful for there to be such a massive uptick in fab construction? Or else there is massive risk appetite at Intel, all of a sudden?
It won't be this way now that they have a foundry business, but back in the day the common wisdom in Intel was that they figured out how many fabs they thought they would need for the new N process and rounded down to build or outfit one less than the marketing projection. True or not? I don't know, but Intel always did seem to be capacity limited.Intel's current business model is to build a new fab upon market research is done or government subsidies is promised. I don't think HP, Dell, Leveno, Asus, and Acer are willing to sign a long term contract with Intel at this point.