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China’s chip making impact hits DRAM first

China’s chip making impact hits DRAM first
by Robert Maire on 12-24-2019 at 6:00 am

China Memory

The Doctrine of Eternal Recurrence- (Nietzsche..) Deja’ Vu all over again…

The semiconductor industry has seen this movie before, several times….new entrant into the memory chip industry, disrupts the status quo and goes on to dominate the industry (until the next new entrant…)

The Japanese did it… Read More


Could TSMC’s spend be part of the seasonal pattern?

Could TSMC’s spend be part of the seasonal pattern?
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2019 at 5:00 am

Is there more downside than upside in stocks?
Entering a seasonally weak period, then what?
Does China trade come back to haunt industry?
Cycle is past the bottom-But what kind of up cycle?

The most recent up cycle in the industry was a huge one, driven by a huge spend on NAND as SSD’s sucked up infinite number of devices. DRAM … Read More


AMAT last to confirm foundry led recovery

AMAT last to confirm foundry led recovery
by Robert Maire on 11-18-2019 at 6:00 am

Good end to a weak fiscal year- and end to down cycle
As expected and well telegraphed by TSMC, LRCX, ASML & KLAC, AMAT put up a good quarter and guide as the last to report that the industry has turned the corner on the down cycle. While not a rip roaring recovery, its better to return to growth than continue a downward trend.

Results… Read More


KLAC- Very Strong Sept & Guide-Foundry up 50%- 5NM & EUV drivers- Outperforming

KLAC- Very Strong Sept & Guide-Foundry up 50%- 5NM & EUV drivers- Outperforming
by Robert Maire on 11-05-2019 at 6:00 am

  • KLAC Strong Beat on Both Sept Q & Dec Guide
  • Foundry/logic (TSMC) up 50% H2 vs H1
  • Gen 5 acceptance and 5NM rollout drive future

Strong beat in Sept results and Dec Guide
KLAC reported revenue of $1.41B and EPS of $2.48 handily beating street estimates of $1.5B and $2.20 in EPS. More importantly the company guided December to be revenues… Read More


AMD Intel TSMC menage a trois and the trouble with trouples

AMD Intel TSMC menage a trois and the trouble with trouples
by Robert Maire on 11-01-2019 at 10:00 am

  • Its “Complicated”- A 3 way Chip Relationship
  • Competing for Wafers, Moore’s Law & Love
  • Who’s Competing with Whom?
  • All’s Fair

The 3 way relationship is more complex than it seems

On the surface it seems simple. AMD and TSMC compete with Intel making its own chips and TSMC making them for AMD. But… Read More


LRCX – A recovery without memory? Korea share gain? TSMC bonus?- all upside

LRCX – A recovery without memory? Korea share gain? TSMC bonus?- all upside
by Robert Maire on 10-23-2019 at 6:00 am

LAM will likely bounce on Korea gains & TSMC
Memory still sucks but TSMC is hot!
Korea upside from share gains?
Japan/Korea – The “Beer Barometer”

Looks like a good Q3….
We think when Lam reports their Q3 this wednesday it will likely be a positive catalyst for the stock as we think the report will be better… Read More


ASML – In Line Qtr but big bookings – Logic Strong! Memory ? EUV?

ASML – In Line Qtr but big bookings – Logic Strong! Memory ? EUV?
by Robert Maire on 10-20-2019 at 6:00 am

ASML in line QTR with big Orders
Near term slippage w long term upside
Logic is strong but memory recovery unknown
EUV is finally a reality/commercialized

In line quarter- supplier slippage expected in Q4
Results were revenues of Euro 3B and EPS of Euro 1.49, more or less in line with earnings estimate if a tad bit light in revenue. … Read More


TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution

TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution
by Robert Maire on 10-19-2019 at 6:00 am

TSMC puts up solid QTR, Capex increase for 5NM and capacity increase, 5G/mobile remains driver- HPC good 7NM, 27% of revs- Very nice margins!

In line quarter-Good guide
TSMC reported revenues of $9.4B and EPS of $0.62 , more or less in line with expectations, perhaps a touch below ” whisper” expectations which had been… Read More


Micron Mired in Murky Memory Market – Cutting Capex 30%- 2020 Challenging

Micron Mired in Murky Memory Market – Cutting Capex 30%- 2020 Challenging
by Daniel Nenni on 09-29-2019 at 10:00 am

  • Solid Quarter but soft Outlook
  • Recovery Slow- Future Cost Downs Harder
  • Demand slightly ahead of supply-Shelf Stuffed?
  • Bouncing along the Bottom of the Cycle

Results ahead of expectation but guide behind expectation
Quarterly results were slightly better than street expectations at $0.56 EPS and $4.87B in revenues however … Read More


Is Samsung having problems with 7NM? Do long lines at TSMC prove that?

Is Samsung having problems with 7NM? Do long lines at TSMC prove that?
by Robert Maire on 09-19-2019 at 2:00 pm

Reports of increasing TSMC 7NM lead times
There have been a number of increasing media reports about lengthening leads times for TSMC 7NM process. From what we have been able to determine its not due to TSMC having a yield bust or other production issues, it is simply one of stronger than expected demand.

There have been reports of … Read More