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ASML – In Line Qtr but big bookings – Logic Strong! Memory ? EUV?

ASML – In Line Qtr but big bookings – Logic Strong! Memory ? EUV?
by Robert Maire on 10-20-2019 at 6:00 am

ASML in line QTR with big Orders
Near term slippage w long term upside
Logic is strong but memory recovery unknown
EUV is finally a reality/commercialized

In line quarter- supplier slippage expected in Q4
Results were revenues of Euro 3B and EPS of Euro 1.49, more or less in line with earnings estimate if a tad bit light in revenue. Outlook for Q4 is Euro 4B with 4 EUV systems slipping into 2020 due to supplier issues (now resolved)

Logic is leading the recovery… Obviously TSMC
Over 70% of orders are from foundry/logic customers as everyone is getting in the queue now that EUV is in commercial production. TSMC is the leader in real EUV and likely accounts for the largest portion of those future EUV orders

Memory still an unknown
Several months ago we said that the recovery would be led by logic as the memory recovery would take longer than most people expected due to the sidelined capacity amid excess supply and weak pricing.

This is becoming clearer to most people as we have heard from Micron, which was weaker than many expected and now clearly hearing from ASML that memory business remains weak with unknown timing of a recovery.
Some are expecting a recovery early in 2020, but we would not get our hopes up as it could take all of 2020 to get memory back on track.

Huge orders Euro 5B and 23 EUV tools
ASML is selling out its capacity very quickly as we are now seeing a virtual avalanche of orders. EUV has been proven and no customer wants to be excluded from the party or perhaps run out of capacity.

Part of the huge ramp is the large ramp in the numbers of layers in a chip made with EUV, going from a few ,like 3-5, going to 12 to 15 (depending upon whom you believe). Basically the number of tools has to increase proportionately with the number of layers. Memory is still a long way away from using EUV so in our view the current memory weakness, while impacting DUV and immersion is not slowing down EUV.

In a perverse way, the weakness in EUV demand for memory is likely of benefit to the logic side of the industry as it doesn’t compete for limited EUV tool availability.

40 plus EUV tools should be very easy to book for next year as we are more than halfway there. I think we can get there even without any memory recovery.

Not worried about supplier slippage
Given the complexity of an EUV tool and the huge supply chain we are certainly going to see issues here and there. The fact that its only a one quarter slip suggests its not a big or systemic problem.

We would likely take a longer term view as to the overall trend and worry less about the actual ship date and whether it falls within one quarter or another. ASML is not in a “turns” business like dep and etch or other relatively simple to assemble tools.

It down to production execution
As we are now past the milestone of actual commercial EUV production we are past the point of invention, luck, and pain and suffering trying to get the technology to work and more focused on production issues and the ramp of manufacturing.

To be sure, there are still many issues out there, pellicles, resist, reticle inspection, but what we have is working well enough to push forward on the number of layers using EUV and thus more tools.

We have covered ASML for almost 25 years with much of that history watching the EUV saga play out, so it is interesting to see the final conclusion (or perhaps beginning) of an era.

The stock –
Priced for perfection in an imperfect world, but still pretty good. ASML’s stock has steadily climbing based on the view of a recovering chip sector. Some stocks in the space have gotten a bit ahead of themselves but we think ASML’s value increase is justified given where we are with EUV, the strong logic/foundry demand and overall positioning in the market. Some investors may be unhappy with the slippage, but we are less concerned as you have to look at the longer term.

Some investors may be unhappy with a quarter that was just “in line” but given the memory weakness, we think “in line” is very good performance as ASML is working with one hand (memory) tied behind its back.

Overall we remain constructive on the stock and would look at pull backs or weakness as an opportunity to build or enhance a position going forward.
The stock is not cheap but the performance and positioning support the valuation.

We think that ASML has the lowest China/US trade problem exposure (though not zero) and EUV sales are less impacted by near term economic gyrations as the backlog is likely very strong. All in all a relatively defensive position in a very cyclical industry.

Summary
ASML remains a virtual monopoly, with a huge defensive moat, upside potential in revenues and margins and a leading technology position. We expect margins and therefore profitability to increase steadily as EUV ramps over the next few years leading to long term upside. It remains one of our top picks in large caps in the space.


TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution

TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution
by Robert Maire on 10-19-2019 at 6:00 am

TSMC puts up solid QTR, Capex increase for 5NM and capacity increase, 5G/mobile remains driver- HPC good 7NM, 27% of revs- Very nice margins!

In line quarter-Good guide
TSMC reported revenues of $9.4B and EPS of $0.62 , more or less in line with expectations, perhaps a touch below ” whisper” expectations which had been growing along with the lead times for 7NM. Gross margin was a nice 47.6%.
Q4 is expected to be between $10.2B and $10.3B with gross margins between 48% and 50%. This revenue outlook is well above current street expectations.

Large bump up in Capex
We have been talking about a logic led recovery, in chip equipment, given the strength at TSMC. TSMC bumped up their 2019 capex from $12.5B to $14 to $15B with initial outlook for 2020 to be similar to 2019.

This suggests a bit of a hockey stick like capex spend in the current Q4 of 2019.This hockey stick will show up in a better than expected guide from tool companies

We think this is likely a strong mix of not only 5NM spend but also 7NM capacity related spend given better than expected demand and long lead times currently seen by customers.

Capex intensity, currently at 40% is expected to come down in 2020 and further come down in 2021 to 30% to 35%

5G and mobile remains the big upside in demand
In our view, customers in the mobile space are all rushing to get to market first with 5G devices to try to stake a claim to market share and early dominance. This has created a strong “land rush” of orders to insure enough 5G chips to power those devices.

7NM was 27% of total sales which supports this strong demand and suggests strong pricing ability as well.

This is quite a strong ramp from the start of 7NM earlier in the year. We are sure that HPC (read that as AMD) is also clearly helping to drive demand over the top.

Smartphone was 49% of revenue with HPC at 29%.

We don’t think any significant portion of sales was due to inventory build or channel stuffing as fears of trade ware related cut offs have subsided in the market.

TSMC winning on both yield and packaging
In our view, we think that TSMC is attracting more customers and thus the longer lead times as they have both better yields and better packaging technology.

We think Samsung has had more struggles with yield and coming up to speed despite (and potentially because of ) EUV implementation.

We also think that TSMC’s advanced capabilities in packaging allow it to offer customers more and better options in 2.5 and 3D packaging.

As customers look for other strategies outside of Moore’s law scaling, such as “chiplets”, these packaging options become a critical differentiating and enabling technology. Some customers, such as AMD, are currently banking on advantages of a “chiplet” architecture.

Collateral impact on equipment companies
TSMC’s report , and large capex increase, confirms our view that there is a strong near term pick up in equipment demand despite memory “sucking wind”.

We think most equipment suppliers will report at least in line or likely better than expected results in the current quarter but more importantly will guide even higher going forward as orders from TSMC hit their order books.

This is very much in line with our “logic/foundry led recovery” that we have talked about for several months. While not a rip roaring semicap recovery, its better than the bouncing along the bottom that the industry has been stuck with and importantly puts an upward bias on business even though the slope may be low without memory.

The Stock – Nice quarter, but perhaps not up to the unrealistic expectations of the market
Its clear that chip stocks have been on a tear and along with the stocks, and so have expectations. Much of this in TSMC’s case is a combination of Apple talking about increasing supplier orders by 10% along with the extended lead times at TSMC 7NM. We think expectations and the stock both got a little bit ahead of themselves such that when the company reported an excellent quarter, such as it did, that investors were unimpressed as it didn’t blow away numbers.

We would use any weakness as an entry point to add to positions in TSMC.

They are now more dominant in foundry than ever before and if anything they are lengthening their lead over number two Samsung. Near term demand looks very good, margins are good and getting better.

Most importantly, TSMC continues to push Moore’s Law forward without any visible hiccups or delays…..perhaps they make it look too easy…..perhaps they should have a one quarter “oops” to make them look human and reset investors expectation of perfect performance in technology execution.

They have a very long runway of upside in 5G , with little competition, ahead of them. They are also the “real” engine behind AMD’s success and will get their fair share of the upside associated with that and other HPC business.

We like companies that have dominant or monopolistic-like positions, great execution on technology with a strong defensive “moat” . All this usually combines to show up in financial performance and future upside which we clearly have with TSMC.

We continue to be a buyer of the stock and would be more aggressive on pullbacks. Our only significant cautions would be trade and macro economic risk that all chip companies share.


The New Silvaco CEO is SURGING!

The New Silvaco CEO is SURGING!
by Daniel Nenni on 10-18-2019 at 6:00 am

One of my great pleasures in the semiconductor industry is meeting the people who have brought us to where we are today, at the forefront of modern life. One of those people is Babak Taheri, now CEO of Silvaco who I spent time with yesterday. Babak started in semiconductors around the same time I did 30+ years ago. He has a PhD in EECS and Neurosciences from UC Davis, a Masters Degree from San Jose State and his Bachelors from San Francisco State so he is truly a Silicon Valley native. He held executive positions in engineering, R&D, and corporate management at leading technology firms including Freescale, Cypress Semiconductor, Apple, Invensense, and SRI International, he is also the holder of 28 patents.

Babak came to Silvaco as the CTO last year and was bumped up to CEO in August when David Dutton decided to go back to the equipment manufacturing business. David however is still involved with Silvaco as the Vice Chairman of the board. Having known Silvaco since its beginning I am VERY impressed by this move.

Next week is the Silicon Valley Silvaco SURGE event where Babak will be giving the keynote : From Atoms to Systems. As we all know the semiconductor business is very systems orientated now so it will be interesting to see Babak’s perspective, absolutely.

SURGE brings the TCAD, EDA, and IP communities together to discuss new technologies, explore smart application integration, and discover innovative techniques for advanced semiconductor design. The event includes eight demo stations, a catered lunch, and cool prizes and giveaways for attendees.

  • Executive keynotes
  • Technology Tracks: TCAD, EDA and Design IP
  • Roadmap presentations
  • Customer and partner presentations and success stories
  • Eight unique demo stations
  • Networking with industry experts

SURGE is at the Santa Clara Marriott again this year so you can bet that the food will be great. Take a look at the agenda, after the keynotes there are EDA, TCAD, and IP tracks so something for everyone. As much as I love EDA, I’m all about IP these days so that is where I will be.

I hope to see you there!

About Silvaco
Silvaco Inc. is a leading EDA tools and semiconductor IP provider used for process and device development for advanced semiconductors, power IC, display and memory design. For over 30 years, Silvaco has enabled its customers to develop next generation semiconductor products in the shortest time with reduced cost. We are a technology company outpacing the EDA industry by delivering innovative smart silicon solutions to meet the world’s ever-growing demand for mobile intelligent computing. The company is headquartered in Santa Clara, California and has a global presence with offices located in North America, Europe, Japan and Asia. For more information, visit Silvaco.com.


The SiFive Tech Symposiums are Heading To Portland and Seattle Next Week!

The SiFive Tech Symposiums are Heading To Portland and Seattle Next Week!
by Swamy Irrinki on 10-17-2019 at 2:00 pm

We’re confirming seats in Portland and Seattle for the Pacific Northwest leg of our worldwide 2019 SiFive Tech Symposiums. We are pleased to have Mentor, A Siemens Business as our co-host, and Lauterbach, a leader in microprocessor development tools, as our partner in both cities. The Portland symposium will take place Tuesday, October 22 at the Portland Community College. Our Seattle symposium will be on Wednesday, October 23 at thinkspace Seattle. All of the SiFive Tech Symposiums have been significantly instrumental in engaging the hardware community in the RISC-V ecosystem, and spearheading the emergence of new applications. We are constantly in awe of the brilliant minds that convene at these events. We thrive on watching intense conversations and the sharing of ideas between those already entrenched in RISC-V and others who are simply exploring design alternatives.

The symposiums in Portland and Seattle will both feature presentations by the RISC-V Foundation, SiFive, Mentor and Lauterbach, as well as other ecosystem partners and academic luminaries. There will also be a tutorials, demos and presentations on RISC-V developments tools, platforms, core IP and SoC IP. As always, we have arranged for plenty of time for networking.

Attendance is free, but registration is required!

  • To view the agenda, and to confirm your seat in Portland, please click here.
  • To view the agenda, and to confirm your seat in Seattle, please click here.

We look forward to seeing you!

About SiFive
SiFive is the leading provider of market-ready processor core IP, development tools and silicon solutions based on the free and open RISC-V instruction set architecture. Led by a team of seasoned silicon executives and the RISC-V inventors, SiFive helps SoC designers reduce time-to-market and realize cost savings with customized, open-architecture processor cores, and democratizes access to optimized silicon by enabling system designers in all market verticals to build customized RISC-V based semiconductors. With 14 offices worldwide, SiFive has backing from Sutter Hill Ventures, Spark Capital, Osage University Partners, Chengwei, Huami, SK Hynix, Intel Capital, and Western Digital. For more information, www.sifive.com.

About the RISC-V Foundation
RISC-V (pronounced “risk-five”) is a free and open ISA enabling a new era of processor innovation through open standard collaboration. Founded in 2015, the RISC-V Foundation comprises more than 325 members building the first open, collaborative community of software and hardware innovators powering innovation at the edge forward. Born in academia and research, the RISC-V ISA delivers a new level of free, extensible software and hardware freedom on architecture, paving the way for the next 50 years of computing design and innovation.

The RISC-V Foundation, a non-profit corporation controlled by its members, directs the future development and drives the adoption of the RISC-V ISA. Members of the RISC-V Foundation have access to and participate in the development of the RISC-V ISA specifications and related HW / SW ecosystem. The Foundation has a Board of Directors comprising seven representatives from Bluespec, Inc.; Google; Microsemi; NVIDIA; NXP; University of California, Berkeley; and Western Digital.

In November 2018, the RISC-V Foundation announced a joint collaboration with the Linux Foundation. As part of this collaboration, the Linux Foundation will also provide an influx of resources for the RISC-V ecosystem, such as training programs, infrastructure tools, as well as community outreach, marketing and legal expertise.

Each year, the RISC-V Foundation hosts global events to bring the expansive ecosystem together to discuss current and prospective RISC-V projects and implementations, as well as collectively drive the future evolution of the instruction set architecture (ISA) forward. Event sessions feature leading technology companies and research institutions discussing the RISC-V architecture, commercial and open-source implementations, software and silicon, vectors and security, applications and accelerators, simulation infrastructure and much more. Learn more by visiting the Event Proceedings page.


eSilicon White Paper on Chiplets – Good Read

eSilicon White Paper on Chiplets – Good Read
by Randy Smith on 10-17-2019 at 10:00 am

eSilicon recently released a paper detailing its experiences and its thoughts on the future of chiplets. The author of the white paper is Dr. Carlos Macián. I have also covered a presentation given by Carlos recently at the AI Hardware Summit, and he is well-spoken and quite knowledgeable. To get the white paper, go to the eSilicon website white paper page where you can access a lot of white papers they have developed.

Chiplets are more than an interesting concept. There are many large companies and start-ups all investing in this approach. Even the US government, in the form of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), is trying to develop a useful methodology for this approach. So, what is a chiplet?

When you design using chiplets, you put multiple dies into the same package. This approach by itself is not a new technique. We have had multichip modules (MCM) for quite some time. But, MCM designs were usually reserved for high-end, somewhat expensive products. Today’s chiplet market is not about stacking a big memory die over a big processor die. The modern chiplet market is about standardizing the connection method to place multiple dies on a substrate to build a complete system. The problem is, there is not a standard specification for chiplets.

One of the benefits of using a chiplet approach is that you can develop each chiplet in a different technology node, and of course they can be from different manufacturers. This method would seem to be a more efficient approach than putting everything in one very fast expensive process, if not all of the design implementation needs to be at that expensive node. Analog or RF portions of the design may very well be best suited to 28nm or higher. Slower portions of the design may be just fine at 90nm. But, these chiplets have to “plug in” to the substrate used to connect them. To make an effective market out of this, you need a standardized “socket.”

The appropriate socket will depend on the target market. There are low-end applications that could plug in multiple sensors, small processors, small radios, and a bit of memory to make IoT devices. These could be done using a BGA model, though the pitch and electrical interfaces would need some standardization. There are already companies trying to build a design environment around this approach, such as zGlue. You could use faster chip-to-chip interfaces such as those from NVIDIA, Intel, or eSilicon for higher-end applications with 2.5D/3D interconnects, and other approaches to get memory closer to the processors, creating a huge benefit. This approach to chiplets is a good method for some designs, but if you want to be a chiplet provider, how do you standardize your chiplet products across the different vendor technologies? Then there is DARPA, who might be able to build a solution that is not as dependent on what is best from a cost perspective. You can read more about DARPA’s Common Heterogeneous Integration and IP Reuse Strategies (CHIPS) program here.

I think Carlos’ white paper provides the answer applicable to the sweet spot of this market. I don’t expect an off-the-shelf market to develop anytime soon for high-end applications. But data center, machine learning, domain-specific processors, and other high-performance, high-efficiency solutions are needed right now. Fortunately, this technology is also available now. Grab the eSilicon white paper here.


Virtualizing 5G Infrastructure Verification

Virtualizing 5G Infrastructure Verification
by Bernard Murphy on 10-17-2019 at 5:00 am

5G backhaul, midhaul, fronthaul

Mentor have pushed the advantages of virtualized verification in a number of domains, initially in verifying advanced networking devices supporting multiple protocols and software-defined networking (SDN), and more recently for SSD controllers, particularly in large storage systems for data centers. There are two important components to this testing, the first being that simulation is clearly impractical; testing has to run on emulators simply because designs and test volumes are so large. The second factor is that the range of potential testing loads in these cases is far too varied to consider connecting the emulator test platform to real hardware, the common ICE model for testing in such cases. The “test jig” to represent this very wide range must be virtualized for pre-silicon (and maybe even some post-silicon) validation.

Jean-Marie Brunet, Dir. Marketing for Emulation at Mentor, has now released another white paper following this theme for 5G, particularly the radio network infrastructure underlying this technology. This makes for a good yet quick read for anyone new to the domain, in part on what makes this technology so complex. In fact “complex” hardly seems to do justice to this standard. Where in simpler times we’ve become familiar with mobile/edge devices connecting to base stations and from there to the internet/cloud through backhaul, in 5G there are more layers in the radio access network (RAN).

These are not only for managing aggregation and distribution. Now backhaul to the internet connects (typically through fiber) to the central unit (CU) which handles baseband processing. The CU then connects to distribution units (DUs) and those connect to remote radio units (RRUs), which are possibly small cells. The CU to DU connection is known as midhaul and the DU to RRU connection is known as fronthaul. (More layers are also possible.) This added complexity has been designed to allow for greater capacity with appropriate latency in the fronthaul network, for example ultra-low latencies are only possible if traffic can flow locally without need to go through the head node.

With this level of layering in the network it shouldn’t be surprising that operators want software-defined networking, in this domain applied to something called network slicing to offer different tiers of service. It also shouldn’t be surprising to learn that more compute functionality is moving into these nodes, known here as Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC), more colloquially as fog computing. If you don’t want to take the latency hit of going back to the cloud for everything, you need this local compute. And I’m guessing the operators like it because this can be another chargeable service.

Then there’s the complexity of radio communication in ultra-high-density edge-node environments. This requires support for massive MIMO (multi-input-multi-output) where DUs and possibly the edge nodes themselves sport multiple antennae. The point of this is to allow communication to adaptively optimize, through beamforming, to highest available quality of link. Some indications point to that link adaptation moving under machine-learning (ML) control since look-up table approaches in LTE are becoming too complex to support in 5G.

ML/AI will also play a role in adaptive network slicing, judging by publications from a number of equipment makers (Ericsson, Nokia, Huawei et al). This obviously has to be robust around point failures in the RAN, and it also needs to be able to adapt to ensure continued quality of service in guaranteed latency provisions. I also don’t doubt that if ML capability is needed anyway in these RAN nodes, operators will be tempted to add access to that ML as an additional service to users (perhaps for more extensive natural language processing for example).

So – multi-tiered RANs, software-defined virtual networks through these RANs, local compute within the network, massive MIMO with beamforming and intelligently adapted link quality, machine learning for this and other applications – that’s a lot of functionality to validate in highly complex networks in which many equipment providers and operators must play.

To ensure this doesn’t all turn into a big mess, operators already require that equipment be proven out in compliance-testing labs to be allowed to sit within and connect to sub-5G networks. This concept no doubt continues for 5G, now with all of these new requirements added. Unit validation against artificially constructed tests and hardware rigs is a necessary but far from sufficient requirement to ensure a reasonably likelihood of success in that testing. I don’t see how else you could get there without virtualized network testing against models running on an emulator.

You can read the Mentor white-paper HERE.


Optimizing High Performance Packages calls for Multidisciplinary 3D Modeling

Optimizing High Performance Packages calls for Multidisciplinary 3D Modeling
by Tom Simon on 10-16-2019 at 10:00 am

For all the time we spend thinking and talking about silicon design, it’s easy to forget just how important package design is. Semiconductor packages have evolved over the years from very basic containers for ICs into very specialized and highly engineered elements of finished electronic systems. They play an important role in every aspect of chip operation. New packaging technologies, such as 3D IC, SiP, etc., have actually made packages integrated to chip operation. Package design and analysis is becoming more critical because packages can strongly influence cost, reliability, performance, area and a host of other characteristics.

The list of “care abouts” for package design has become pretty long and without a doubt calls for a multidisciplinary approach. Packages essentially are the cocoon that protects the IC die from the effects of its environment. Outside the package there can be threats from moisture and physical shock and vibration. The package also plays a critical role in removing thermal energy away from the IC. Due to expansion and contraction of materials with different CTEs, thermal stress arises at material interfaces in the package. Ultimately, this stress can cause fractures and cracking, leading to failures. Packages also play a significant role in signal and power integrity, which is extremely important for high speed RF and digital applications.

Because of the wide range of factors and issues involved in package design, a comprehensive approach is called for. Dassault Systèmes offers an in-depth solution for every aspect of package design. The3DEXPERIENCE platform allows designers to look at electromagnetic, thermal, and mechanical design considerations using advanced 3D simulators and solvers. With Knowledge Based Modeling, design changes can be quickly updated and analyzed. 3DEXPERIENCE offers the tools and infrastructure to enable rapid design updates to all stakeholders to accelerate the design process.

The solvers in the CST Studio Suite can be used for a wide range of electromagnetic, thermal and mechanical simulations. Applying them to package design and analysis allows designers fully understand each of the multi-disciplinary aspects of the package design. The integrated environment allows a DOE approach to specifying and verifying the package design to fully understand the performance tradeoffs.

Dassault Systèmes has also thought a lot about the user experience for engineers using the 3DEXPERIENCE platform. They offer advanced HPC capabilities and Cloud computing services for faster throughput and reduced simulation costs. Dassault Systèmes has built lightweight visualization technologies for viewing and sharing 3D models and simulation results in web-based apps.

Packaging can be make-or-break for many semiconductor products and systems. This is especially true when looking at product lifecycle management and reliability. It is one thing to design something that works when brand new, but over time residual stresses from operation and the environmental impact can lead to reduced fatigue life or even failure. In applications such as automotive, the expected lifetime of a product in the field should extend out decades, way beyond the expected lifetime of many consumer gadgets. The economic or even human cost of a failure can also be incredibly high.

The Dassault Systèmes website has detailed information on their solutions for advanced electronics packaging. For more information click HERE.

Also Read

A Brief History of IP Management

Delivering Innovation for Regulated Markets

Webinar: Next Generation Design Data & Release Management


Automating Timing Arc Prediction for AMS IP using ML

Automating Timing Arc Prediction for AMS IP using ML
by Daniel Payne on 10-16-2019 at 6:00 am

Empyrean, Qualib-AI flow

NVIDIA designs some of the most complex chips for GPU and AI applications these days, with SoCs exceeding 21 billion transistors. They certainly know how to push the limits of all EDA tools, and they have a strong motivation to automate more manual tasks in order to quicken their time to market. I missed their Designer/IP Track Poster Session at DAC titled, Machine Learning based Timing Arc Prediction for AMS Design, but the good news is that I did attend a webinar from Empyrean that covered the same topic.  Anjui Shey from Empyrean was the webinar presenter and he talked about Qualib-AI, an EDA tool with AI-powered timing arc prediction for AMS IP blocks.

First off, let’s look at some of the AMS IP modeling challenges:

  • Complex IP creates higher design risks
  • Difficulty modeling AMS IP
  • A missed timing arc can lead to chip failure
  • Toggling within an IP changes thermal condition and timing
  • Process variation creates a large number of PVT corners

Empyrean updated their Qualib library analysis and validation tool to use ML, creating the Qualib-AI tool as shown below:

A timing arc is where you define a timing dependence between any two pins of an IP block. CAD groups are tasked with adding timing arc information for each IP block, and for AMS designs this has been a time consuming manual effort that is error prone.

There are three flows used in this methodology for timing arc prediction: Initial Training, Prediction, Incremental Training.

 

The training data comes from previous AMS cell libraries. Benefits to using ML for predicting timing arcs include:

  • Higher coverage of predicted timing arcs
  • Better accuracy for timing type predictions
  • Fewer false positives and negatives, saving time

NVIDIA ran initial training on 411 IP blocks and then used prediction on a set of 30 new IP blocks as shown below, automatically finding 6,774 arcs and identifying 15,124,093 non-arcs:

The CPU runtimes for initial and increment training plus prediction were pretty fast at about one hour, a much shorter amount of time had the engineers done manual timing arcs:

With an incremental training flow there were three improvements in predicting the timing arcs:

  • Number of false positives decreased 9x, number of false negatives decreased 40X
  • Reached 99.6% coverage to predict timing arc with timing type
  • Reached 98.96% accuracy to predict the timing type

After incremental training there were fewer than 100 false positives for the engineers to review, which is a manageable amount compared to previous efforts.

Summary

Engineers creating AMS IP blocks can now automate how timing arcs are created, saving them time and reducing the risk of a silicon re-spin. Libraries of AMS blocks can be run through this flow to uncover missing arcs, thus improving the quality of the library. The number of false positives has been decreased greatly, and run times for this approach are acceptable.

Watch the archived webinar video here.

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Cadence and Green Hills Share More Security Thoughts at ARM Techcon

Cadence and Green Hills Share More Security Thoughts at ARM Techcon
by Randy Smith on 10-15-2019 at 10:00 am

On Wednesday, October 9, 2019, I had the pleasure of spending the day at ARM Techcon at the San Jose Convention Center. In the morning, in addition to getting some sneak peeks into the exhibitor area, I attended some of the morning keynote presentations, which focused on artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) topics. Those were great presentations and a special thanks to the ARM marketing team for the high-end production value. Next, I was off to see some of the technical sessions, giving me a chance to get back to my EDA and verification roots.

I attended a joint presentation by Frank Schirrmeister of Cadence and Joe Fabbre of Green Hills titled, Pre-silicon Continuum for Concurrent SoC, Software Development and Verification for Safety and Security Critical Systems. At the Cadence Automotive Summit just this past July 30th, I also saw a presentation from Dan Mender, Green Hills Software’s VP, Business Development called Addressing the State of Safety and Security in Today’s Autonomous Vehicles System Designs. These two presentations have demonstrated to me just how serious these two companies are about working together to solve the critical requirement of system security. You can see my blogs from the Cadence Automotive Summit here and here.

One common message from both presentations is the simple theme that you cannot have safety if you do not also have security. The point is that no matter how much you work on safety, a system that is vulnerable to a malicious attack, will not remain safe. This concept applies to all types of systems, not just automotive. Working with Cadence and Green Hills allows a system architect to utilize security measures in both the hardware and software design. One nugget I saw in the presentation was the theme shared by both companies to simplify architectures, specifically, “Separation of critical components with an emphasis on simplicity for critical components is key.”

As we all know, the earlier you find a design flaw, security gaps, and other bugs, the less expensive it is to fix. This perception increases the importance of two concepts – Hardware/Software Co-Verification, and Virtual Platforms. These are areas where Cadence has succeeded and has a thorough product portfolio to support its customers.

As the diagram above shows, several different techniques can be applied to co-verification as we move through the different design stages. You will find the largest number of bugs at the beginning of the design process, and the rate of finding bugs should decrease over time. But these later bugs are still important as they may not show up until the design process reaches its more refined stages. Test coverage and test suites will also get more thorough in time, and you will want to use these tests at the most refined version of your system available at that time. The full range of Cadence verification products can solve that for you.

The presentation also reviewed some of the technology integration points as they are developed and optimized through the Cadence collaboration with Green Hills. For instance, the Green Hills Hypervisor and RTOS technology Integrity – focused on safety and security – can run on the Cadence dynamic verification engines. The software is compiled using safety-aware, certified compilers, and it can be debugged using the Green Hills Multi IDE, which is connected via standard interfaces like JTAG. As an example integration, a virtual platform using Arm Fast Models was shown to boot Linux and get debugged using the Green Hills Multi IDE.

The earlier you can do software development, the more time you will have to find and fix bugs – and security flaws are just that, bugs! Being able to run software testing on virtual platforms rather than waiting for functional silicon is a huge benefit. You will only be able to find some security flaws when running software on a model of the hardware or the hardware itself. Cadence’s Virtual System Platform enables you to start testing your software long before RTL or prototypes of the hardware are available. The virtual system platform can be combined with other parts of the Cadence  System Development Suite, such as Cadence’s emulation and prototyping products, to give you a fast, reliable environment for doing early software development and validation.

This session was one of several very useful presentations at ARM Techcon. If you missed it this year, make sure to put it on your schedule for next year. If you sign up to be notified when ARM TechCon 2020 registration opens, ARM will give you a $100 discount on the regular price of an All-Access conference pass for the 2020 event.


Formal in the Field: Users are Getting More Sophisticated

Formal in the Field: Users are Getting More Sophisticated
by Bernard Murphy on 10-15-2019 at 5:00 am

Formal SIG 2019 meeting at Synopsys

Building on an old chestnut, if sufficiently advanced technology looks like magic, there are a number of technology users who are increasingly looking like magicians. Of course when it comes to formal, neither is magical, just very clever. The technology continues to advance and so do the users in their application of those methods. Synopsys recently hosted an all-day Special Interest Group event on formal in Sunnyvale, including talks from Marvell and others, with a keynote given by my fellow author Manish Pandey and Pratik Mahajan. A number of points captured my attention.

Regression with ML

Nvidia talked about regressing formal runs. This started with an observation that complexity is growing in many directions, one of which is arbiters, FIFOs and state machines all talking to each other. Proving you have covered all the bases quickly runs out of gas in dynamic verification of possible interactions between these systems. In fact, even trying to do this through bottom-up property checking is dodgy; who knows what interactions between subsystems you might miss? So they chose to go with end-to-end (E2E) property checks to comprehensively cover all (necessary) systems in proving.

The problem in that idea is proof convergence. Taken together these are very big state machines. Nvidia turned to the standard next step – break each property down into sub-properties (with assume-guarantee strategies for example). The sub-properties are easier to prove in reasonable time, but each requires its own setup and proving, and these E2E goals generate lots of sub-properties. This generates so many sub-proofs that resource competition with other forms of verification becomes a problem.

Their next refinement was to apply ML capabilities (RMA) available with VC formal, both within the tools and in learning between tool runs, to accelerate runs and to reduce resource requirements. They do this initially in interactive convergence and subsequently in regression runs. In both cases the advantages are significant – order of magnitude improvements in net run-times. Clearly worthwhile.

Proof Using Symbolic Variables

Microsoft talked about validating a highly configurable interrupt controller IP more efficiently. Their approach was based on connectivity checks for each configuration; they found that in a previous rev this expanded to tens of thousands of assertions and took 2 days to completely validate. In a newer and naturally more complex rev of the IP this grew to 2.5M assertions, the complete proof wouldn’t converge, and initially they were forced to reduce the scope of proving to a sample set, not exciting when the goal had been to demonstrate complete proofs.

Then they got clever, looking at the symmetries in the problem and using symbolic variables for key values in the design, each constrained to lie within its allowable range. This isn’t entry-level formal (you have to think about what you’re doing), but it is very powerful. Proof engines will prove over an assumption that such variables can take any allowed value within their constrained ranges, so the proof is complete but can operate on effectively a smaller problem. That allows for much faster run-times. The large example (which wouldn’t complete before) now ran in 24 hours. Out of curiosity they re-ran the smaller example that previously took 2 days; this now ran in 15 minutes.  As everywhere in verification, clever construction of a testbench can make huge difference in runtimes and in coverage.

Sequential equivalence checking

This (SEQ) is the standard way to verify clock gating, however the Samsung speaker talked about a number of applications beyond that scope: validating for RTL de-featuring (where you turn off ifdef-ed functionality), sequential optimizations (e.g. moving logic across flop boundaries to improve timing), shortening pipeline stages and power optimizations, all verification tasks you can’t pull off using conventional equivalence checking. Given the extended nature of such checks they can be a little more involved than conventional checking. He talked about multiple capabilities they are able to use in VC Formal to aid in convergence of proofs – orchestration, CEGAR memory and operator abstraction and specialized engines. Overall this enabled them to find 40+ RTL bugs in 5 months. He added that 40+% of the bugs were found by new hires and interns, highlighting that this stuff is not only for advanced users.

Datapath Validation

Lastly, Synopsys have now folded their HECTOR datapath checker under VC Formal Datapath Validation (DPV) App. This employs transaction-level equivalence to validate between a C-level model and the RTL implementation. Datapath elements for a long time were one of those areas you couldn’t use formal, so this is an important advance. Marvell talked about using this capability to verify a number of floating-point arithmetic function blocks. In standard approaches, whether for simulation or “conventional” formal, the number of possibilities that must be covered is exponentially unreachable.

The Datapath Validation App works with Berkeley SoftFloat models, widely recognized as a solid reference for float arithmetic. This team used those models in DPV equivalence checking with their RTL implementations and found a number of bugs, some in the RTL and some in the C++ models and added that they subsequently found no bugs in simulation and emulation. This suggests to me that this type of verification is going to see a lot of growth.

 

Interested users can request the material from VC Formal SIG from their Synopsys contacts. You can checkout VC Formal HERE.