Semiconductor Capital Equipment Series: Introduction

Semiconductor Capital Equipment Series: Introduction
by Doug O'Laughlin on 03-06-2022 at 10:00 am

Semiconductor Capital Equipment Series 1

Semicap is in some ways the unsung hero of American global dominance in semiconductors. The US punches above its weight in terms of market share compared to demand, but specifically in three categories. EDA, IP, and Equipment.

I hope to write about everything there can be said about semiconductors, and EDA is a place I understand… Read More


AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022

AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2022 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials

-Production constraints push backlog up $1.3B to $8B
-Looks like $100B in WFE 2022 VS $80B in 2021
-Almost sold out for 2022- Could lead to continued growth 2023
-Insp/metrology up 68% Y/Y- Expect steady growth in 2022

Can’t keep up with demand….

Revenue came in at $6.27B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.89. A very slight beat of … Read More


The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Cost

The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Cost
by Doug O'Laughlin on 02-13-2022 at 6:00 am

Moores Law Slowing Down

It Isn’t Transistory

There’s a quiet upheaval happening in the semiconductor industry. The rules that have always governed the industry are fraying, undoing assumptions that we took for granted, that was pounded into us in school. The irreproachable Moore’s Law, that exponential progress will make things cheaper, better,… Read More


KLAC- Great quarter and year – March Q is turning point of supply chain problem

KLAC- Great quarter and year – March Q is turning point of supply chain problem
by Robert Maire on 01-30-2022 at 10:00 am

KLAC Foundry Logic

-KLAC – great QTR & calendar year but supply chain impacted
-Management feels supply chain to improve after March Q
-Demand remains strong, driven by foundry/logic
-Process management is next best place in industry after litho

Great end to calendar year

KLA reported revenues of $2.53B with non GAAP EPS of $5.59 nicely… Read More


ASML Too Much Demand Plus Intel and High NA

ASML Too Much Demand Plus Intel and High NA
by Robert Maire on 01-23-2022 at 6:00 am

ASML High NA Intel

Too much demand- A “good” problem-Managing supply & capacity-Intel & Hi NA

ASML great Q4 results-Demand off charts-Supply constrained
-Dealing with chain issues, putting out fires, expediting
-Looking forward to next gen High NA in 2024/2025
-Intel’s order doesn’t give advantage,… Read More


Semicon West is Semicon Less

Semicon West is Semicon Less
by Robert Maire on 12-15-2021 at 10:00 am

Semicon West 2021
  • Semicon West was Semicon Less- Less Customers & Vendor
  • Everyone is busy as can be, maybe too busy to attend
  • Those who were there, talk about supply chain issues & stress
  • How long does the party last & where the money comes from?

Semicon West was Semicon Less….

We attended a “Hybrid” version of Semicon… Read More


KLAC- Foundry/Logic Drives Outperformance- No Supply Chain Woes- Nice Beat

KLAC- Foundry/Logic Drives Outperformance- No Supply Chain Woes- Nice Beat
by Robert Maire on 11-04-2021 at 8:00 am

KLAC Tencor SemiWiki

KLA- great quarter driven by continued strong foundry/logic
No supply chain hiccups- Riding high in the cycle
Wafer inspection remains driver with rest along for the ride
Financials remain best in industry

A superb quarter
There was little to complain about in the quarter. Revenues of $2.1B and EPS of $4.64, both nicely beating… Read More


LRCX- Good Results Despite Supply Chain “Headwinds”- Is Memory Market OK?

LRCX- Good Results Despite Supply Chain “Headwinds”- Is Memory Market OK?
by Robert Maire on 10-24-2021 at 10:00 am

Lam Research Report 2021 SemiWiki

Lam- good quarter but supply chain headwinds limit upside
Memory seems OK for now but watch pricing
China will also weaken which may add caution
Performance remains solid as does technology prowess

The yellow caution flag in the Semi race impacts Lam as well

As we suggested two weeks ago and saw with ASML this morning, supply chain… Read More


ASML- Speed Limits in an Overheated Market- Supply Chain Kinks- Long Term Intact

ASML- Speed Limits in an Overheated Market- Supply Chain Kinks- Long Term Intact
by Robert Maire on 10-24-2021 at 6:00 am

ASML Report 2021

ASML great QTR but supply chain will limit acceleration
Products are most complex with most extensive supply chain
Long term position fantastic but investors will be nervous
300M pushouts in DUV with EUV still on track

Good quarter but yellow caution flag is out for supply chain concerns

ASML reported great revenues of Euro5.2B… Read More


Semiconductors – Limiting Factors; Supply Chain & Talent- Will Limit Stock Upside

Semiconductors – Limiting Factors; Supply Chain & Talent- Will Limit Stock Upside
by Robert Maire on 10-07-2021 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor shortage

– If chips are “as good as it gets” so are the stock prices
– Are we at a near term ceiling that stocks have bounced off of?
– If growth slows do valuations also slow?
– Are we in a holding pattern waiting for a down cycle?

Second order derivative investing

As we have said many times in the past, investors… Read More