- The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
- Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
- Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
- Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
Tag: asml
KLAC- Past bottom of cycle- up from here- early positive signs-packaging upside
– KLA reported a good QTR but more importantly passing the bottom
– Lead times mean KLA gets orders early in up cycle-just behind ASML
– Potential upside in upcycle as packaging needs more process control
– 2024 2nd half weighted with stronger recovery likely in 2025
A solid quarter as expected with good
… Read MoreASML- Soft revenues & Orders – But…China 49% – Memory Improving
ASML- better EPS but weaker revenues- 2024 recovery on track
China jumps 10% to 49%- Memory looking better @59% of orders
Order lumpiness increases with ASP- EUV will be up-DUV down
“Passing Bottom” of what has been a long down cycle
Weak revenues & orders but OK EPS
Reported revenue was Euro5.3B and EPS of Euro3.11… Read More
ASML moving to U.S.- Nvidia to change name to AISi & acquire PSI Quantum
- Nvidia changing name to AISi (AI silicon) reflecting business focus
- Nvidia to buy PSI Quantum to combine AI & quantum efforts
- ASML to move to U.S. to reduce China & employee restrictions
- New Japanese consortia firms join Rapidus & IBM fab team
Nvidia renaming to reflect AI reality
Nvidia which is now clearly seen as … Read More
SPIE Let there be Light! High NA Kickoff! Samsung Slows? “Rapid” Decline?
– High NA EUV’s coming out party – “Dawn” of the Angstrom Era
– Well attended, positive vibes, not much new but good progress
– Concerns about Samsung slowing spend while Intel accelerates
– KLA reticle inspection quandary – Risky business in China
SPIE was a High-NA
… Read MoreAMAT – Flattish QTR Flattish Guide – Improving 2024 – Memory and Logic up, ICAPs Down
– AMAT slightly better than expected, flat & guides flat but > expected
– Expects better 2024- Systems flat, service up, display down
– China risk remains high at 45%- $200M Sculpta expected in 2024
– HBM 5% of industry but not a lot of tool sales- but high growth
Still bumping along with flattish … Read More
LRCX- In line Q4 & flat guide- No recovery yet- China still 40%- Lags Litho
– Lam reported as expected and guided flat- No recovery yet
– Some mix shifts but China still 40% (8X US at 5%)-NVM still low
– HBM is promising but Lam needs a broad memory recovery
– Lam has not seen order surge ASML saw- Likely lagging by 3-4 QTRs
An in line quarter and uninspiring flat guide for Q1
As compared… Read More
2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand
- What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
- What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
- What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
- Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
… Read MoreIs Intel cornering the market in ASML High NA tools? Not repeating EUV mistake
- Reports suggest Intel will get 6 of 10 ASML High NA tools in 2024
- Would give Intel a huge head start over TSMC & Samsung
- A big gamble but a potentially huge pay off
- Does this mean $4B in High NA tool sales for ASML in 2024?
News suggests Intel will get 6 of first 10 High NA tools made by ASML in 2024
An industry news source, Trendforce, reports… Read More
China’s hoard of chip-making tools: national treasures or expensive spare parts?
In the closing scene of Steven Spielberg’s Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981), the camera pulls back to reveal an enormous warehouse stacked with crates of artifacts hidden away by the US government.
One could imagine a similar warehouse in China today. The crates would hold a different kind of treasure – semiconductor production … Read More