LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down

LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down
by Robert Maire on 10-27-2024 at 8:00 am

Happy Lamb
  • Lam put in good quarter with flattish guide- still a slow recovery
  • This is better than worst case fears of order drop like ASML
  • China spend is slowing but tech spending increase offsets
  • Relief rally as the market was braced for bad news and got OK news
Lam has OK, slightly better than in line quarter with OK guide….

It coulda been… Read More


ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake

ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
by Robert Maire on 10-16-2024 at 10:00 am

ASML 2024 Downturn
  • Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
  • Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
  • China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
  • AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
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SPIE Monterey- ASML, INTC – High NA Readiness- Bigger Masks/Smaller Features

SPIE Monterey- ASML, INTC – High NA Readiness- Bigger Masks/Smaller Features
by Robert Maire on 10-08-2024 at 6:00 am

Christophe Fouquet SemiWiki

– SPIE Photomask -all about High NA and bigger masks
– High NA will ramp very fast & is ramping fast – two already at Intel
– Doubling size of photomask will offset High NA exposure size problem
– Assembling litho tools at customer saves time/money- “Scanner Kits”

Christophe Fouquet
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The Semiconductor Business will find a way!

The Semiconductor Business will find a way!
by Claus Aasholm on 09-09-2024 at 6:00 am

Endless Loop of Sanctions rotates while China buys more

Embargoes and other fun stuff in the Semiconductor Tools Market

While this post dives into the semiconductor tool market’s Q2 data, it is also about the senseless embargo game currently in place. The post illustration shows what my notebooks look like as embargoes enforce what they are supposed to suppress and are replaced… Read More


LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery

LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery
by Robert Maire on 08-04-2024 at 6:00 am

Chips Act 2024
  • Lam reported good numbers with slightly soft guide
  • Investors are figuring out the up cycle will be slower than thought
  • Looks like AMAT won’t get CHIPS act money for Epic facility
  • Steady improvement but stocks still ahead of themselves-Correction?
Lam reports good numbers (as usual) but guide not good enough

Lam reported… Read More


Podcast EP238: Intel Capital’s Focus on Improving the Future of Semiconductors with Jennifer Ard

Podcast EP238: Intel Capital’s Focus on Improving the Future of Semiconductors with Jennifer Ard
by Daniel Nenni on 08-02-2024 at 10:00 am

Dan is joined by Jennifer Ard, Intel Capital Managing Director and Head of Investment Operations. In her role, Jen is responsible for managing Intel Capital’s investment-related operations. Additionally, she is primarily focused on investing in silicon-related companies and has been involved in multiple deals including… Read More


The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped

The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped
by Robert Maire on 07-18-2024 at 8:00 am

China Syndrome
  • The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
  • Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
  • Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
  • Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
US looking to further restrict
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KLAC- Past bottom of cycle- up from here- early positive signs-packaging upside

KLAC- Past bottom of cycle- up from here- early positive signs-packaging upside
by Robert Maire on 05-02-2024 at 8:00 am

Semiconductor Manufacturing

– KLA reported a good QTR but more importantly passing the bottom
– Lead times mean KLA gets orders early in up cycle-just behind ASML
– Potential upside in upcycle as packaging needs more process control
– 2024 2nd half weighted with stronger recovery likely in 2025

A solid quarter as expected with good
Read More

ASML- Soft revenues & Orders – But…China 49% – Memory Improving

ASML- Soft revenues & Orders – But…China 49% – Memory Improving
by Robert Maire on 04-19-2024 at 8:00 am

Fully assembled TWINSCAN EXE 5000

ASML- better EPS but weaker revenues- 2024 recovery on track
China jumps 10% to 49%- Memory looking better @59% of orders
Order lumpiness increases with ASP- EUV will be up-DUV down
“Passing Bottom” of what has been a long down cycle

Weak revenues & orders but OK EPS

Reported revenue was Euro5.3B and EPS of Euro3.11… Read More


ASML moving to U.S.- Nvidia to change name to AISi & acquire PSI Quantum

ASML moving to U.S.- Nvidia to change name to AISi & acquire PSI Quantum
by Robert Maire on 04-01-2024 at 10:00 am

Moving to the US
  • Nvidia changing name to AISi (AI silicon) reflecting business focus
  • Nvidia to buy PSI Quantum to combine AI & quantum efforts
  • ASML to move to U.S. to reduce China & employee restrictions
  • New Japanese consortia firms join Rapidus & IBM fab team

Nvidia renaming to reflect AI reality

Nvidia which is now clearly seen as … Read More