-Where are we in the chip cycle? Why is it different this time?
-No one rings a bell to indicate the top or bottom of a cycle
-Could the lack of self-awareness lead to a worse downturn?
-Who will weather the cycle better & come out on top
-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning
KLAC reported… Read More
-ASML reports strong quarter- Orders up 20% Qtr/Qtr
-Customers rush delivery which delays revenue recognition
-Chip makers need hard to get litho tools most of all
-Warning on concerns about consumer chip demand
ASML reported revenues of Euro5.4B and EPS of Euro3.54. Most importantly… Read More
-If you can’t beat them, embargo them
-It has been reported US wants ASML to halt China DUV tools
-US obviously wants to kill, not just wound China chip biz
-Is this embargo the alternative to failed CHIPS act?
-Hard to say “do as I say, not as I do”- but US does anyway
First EUV ban now DUV ban? Are process & yield… Read More
At the 2022 SPIE Advanced Lithography Conference, ASML presented an update on EUV. I recently had a chance to go over the presentations with Mike Lercel of ASML. The following is a summary of our discussions.
The 0.33 NA EUV systems are the production workhorse systems for leading edge lithography today. 0.33 NA systems are… Read More
At the recent SPIE Advanced Lithography + Patterning Conference, Mark Phillips from Intel gave an insightful update on the status of the introduction of the 0.55 high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography technology. Mark went so far as to assert that the development progress toward high-NA EUV would support … Read More
-KLA has another great QTR in face of overwhelming demand
-Supply chain issues obliterated by backlog
-Longer term technology leadership concerns are increasing
-We see limited upside near term & remain cyclically cautious
KLA’s performance remains great as does… Read More
-ASML reported an “in line” Q1- Orders remain super strong
-Ongoing supply chain issues will limit growth and upside
-ASML targets 2025 for supply fixes- We are not so sure
-Intel, TSMC, Samsung won’t be able to build all fabs they plan
ASML reported… Read More
Semicap is in some ways the unsung hero of American global dominance in semiconductors. The US punches above its weight in terms of market share compared to demand, but specifically in three categories. EDA, IP, and Equipment.
I hope to write about everything there can be said about semiconductors, and EDA is a place I understand… Read More
-Production constraints push backlog up $1.3B to $8B
-Looks like $100B in WFE 2022 VS $80B in 2021
-Almost sold out for 2022- Could lead to continued growth 2023
-Insp/metrology up 68% Y/Y- Expect steady growth in 2022
Can’t keep up with demand….
Revenue came in at $6.27B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.89. A very slight beat of … Read More
