Samsung nanosheets before Intel?

[Fred Chen]

Intel to use Nanowire/Nanoribbon Transistors in Volume ‘in Five Years’

www.anandtech.com

With Samsung jumping ahead to GAA (with some EDA support already), will Intel just wait and see?

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Intel to use Nanowire/Nanoribbon Transistors in Volume ‘in Five Years’

www.anandtech.com

With Samsung jumping ahead to GAA (with some EDA support already), will Intel just wait and see?

I seriously doubt it. Let's see who gets GAA into HVM first. If Samsung can land some big customers with 2nm that would be disruptive.

 

[prime007]

These next few years will be very interesting to say the least. Peter Wennink, ASML's CEO, predicted (during ASML's Q3 2020 earnings call) that the number of customers (Intel, Samsung & TSMC) in the leading edge will shrink and that he will have "fewer and fewer customers". The next few nodes could very well determine each company's fortunes/future.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

These next few years will be very interesting to say the least. Peter Wennink, ASML's CEO, predicted (during ASML's Q3 2020 earnings call) that the number of customers (Intel, Samsung & TSMC) in the leading edge will shrink and that he will have "fewer and fewer customers". The next few nodes could very well determine each company's fortunes/future.

Did he mention China? That seems to be a big upside for the equipment folks if politics don't get in the way. I know the rest of the semiconductor ecosystem is betting big on China this year.

 

[prime007]

Peter mentioned China during his recent Q4 earnings call...although he repeatedly mentioned a few times that growth was constrained by regulation.

Yes. I think, what we see -- we see that trend keep going up. It has to do with the fact that there is a significant amount of investment planned in China, Memory and Logic. In our -- what we gave you in terms of growth for 2021, 10% Logic, 20% Memory, 10% Installed Base, our assumption there is that the indigenous Chinese business has about the same euro level. But it's a different type of customer. As we told you also three months ago that we expect 2021 the China business to grow, but largely in Memory, so it's in 3D NAND and in DRAM. Those are the big drivers. And that's in, what I would call -- what we gauge you to calculate and so many calculated to a 12% growth number.

On top of that there is a significant upside in Logic. And how big can that be? It's significant. But like I said, we are conservative company. We've experienced the unpredictability of the legislation over the last couple of months. We don't want to put that into your forecast right now, but when things don't change and stay as it is, there is some significant Logic upside in China.