Protecting your portfolio from the ramifications of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is impossible.

[Mooredaddy]

In my opinion it is not even worth worrying about. If a Taiwan invasion is even attempted it will be analogous to a meteor strike on global trade. Are you really going to build that (WW3) into your economic or financial model? There is zero scenario where the stock market and the worldwide economy isn't positively wrecked for decades if China makes a move militarily. All China trade will be gone and Japan and the U.S will get involved militarily at a minimum. Japan's new government has already declared any Chinese move on Taiwan as an existential threat. It goes way beyond semis, to keeping the first island chain intact to contain Chinese expansionism. Basically what I'm saying is that it's not even worth worrying about, because there is literally nothing you can do for risk mitigation. And before I hear about moving semis oversees, it's not happening, it just wont. As an aside, has everyone just forgot Samsung Foundry is dozens of miles away from a nation to the north that regularly threatens to destroy it with nuclear weapons on a weekly basis, never-mind the thousands artillery pieces in range of Seoul and Samsungs foundries? Anyone who actually knows the semi space knows this and how comical all this talk of relocating Taiwans semi industry oversees is. Pat Gelsinger admitted as much earlier this year on CNBC at the World Economic Forum this May when asked how quickly it would take for the U.S to be independent of Taiwanese semi manufacturing. His answer was quick and clear, never. The fact that this question was even asked shows how out of touch the financial community is with the idea that with enough money and effort Taiwan Semi can be transplanted/recreated in the U.S or Europe. The semi ecosystem in Taiwan is one of a kind and you can't replicate all of the comparative advantages that made it so efficient and successful in the U.S or elsewhere.

TLDR: World is screwed in literally every scenario. Apple loses 90% of its value by losing it only semi supplier and massive growth market (China) taking the whole market with it. Every other globalized corporation (ALL OF THEM) also tank to historic levels as WW3 likely breaks out. You can't shield your portfolio or economy from this. The sooner everyone accepts this the sooner we can move on the stuffing Taiwan with weapons to make a blockade or attack even more suicidal than it already is.

https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentary/japans-newfound-boldness-defending-taiwan

Gelsinger interview

 

[Paul2]

In my opinion it is not even worth worrying about. If a Taiwan invasion is even attempted it will be analogous to a meteor strike on global trade. Are you really going to build that (WW3) into your economic or financial model? There is zero scenario where the stock market and the worldwide economy isn't positively wrecked for decades if China makes a move militarily. All China trade will be gone and Japan and the U.S will get involved militarily at a minimum. Japan's new government has already declared any Chinese move on Taiwan as an existential threat. It goes way beyond semis, to keeping the first island chain intact to contain Chinese expansionism. Basically what I'm saying is that it's not even worth worrying about, because there is literally nothing you can do for risk mitigation. And before I hear about moving semis oversees, it's not happening, it just wont. As an aside, has everyone just forgot Samsung Foundry is dozens of miles away from a nation to the north that regularly threatens to destroy it with nuclear weapons on a weekly basis, never-mind the thousands artillery pieces in range of Seoul and Samsungs foundries? Anyone who actually knows the semi space knows this and how comical all this talk of relocating Taiwans semi industry oversees is. Pat Gelsinger admitted as much earlier this year on CNBC at the World Economic Forum this May when asked how quickly it would take for the U.S to be independent of Taiwanese semi manufacturing. His answer was quick and clear, never. The fact that this question was even asked shows how out of touch the financial community is with the idea that with enough money and effort Taiwan Semi can be transplanted/recreated in the U.S or Europe. The semi ecosystem in Taiwan is one of a kind and you can't replicate all of the comparative advantages that made it so efficient and successful in the U.S or elsewhere.

TLDR: World is screwed in literally every scenario. Apple loses 90% of its value by losing it only semi supplier and massive growth market (China) taking the whole market with it. Every other globalized corporation (ALL OF THEM) also tank to historic levels as WW3 likely breaks out. You can't shield your portfolio or economy from this. The sooner everyone accepts this the sooner we can move on the stuffing Taiwan with weapons to make a blockade or attack even more suicidal than it already is.

https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentary/japans-newfound-boldness-defending-taiwan

Gelsinger interview

Protecting your portfolio is not what is possible in a potentially nuclear conflict. US will likely declare a mobilisation (note, not a draft, but mobilisation — calling up reservees) for the first time since WWII.

Many rich people moved to Argentina at the start of WW2 with suitcases full of gold bricks. They fared relatively well personally, their fortunes didn't. The post WW2 economic recovery was meteoric, and it swept away nearly all of "old money" in the US, and Europe.

Many tried to start off anew in South America, and rebuild their business/financial empires there, but there is literally zero success stories besides people who "just bought tons of land," and rented it out to farmers. All of the industry, new ideas, educated people, and creative energy stayed where it always been. In fact, the prime majority of rich immigrants to Latin America went bust eventually, by sixties-seventies. America, and Europe are rich not because they have a lot of JP Morgans, and Rothschilds, but because JP Morgans, and Rothschilds can become rich in places like that.

Now, who are the rich people in places like mainland China? I cannot remember who was the richest man in China even 10 years ago, since they all come, and go so quickly. Mainland riches are due to chance, not virtue.

 

[Jert]

Now, who are the rich people in places like mainland China? I cannot remember who was the richest man in China even 10 years ago, since they all come, and go so quickly. Mainland riches are due to chance, not virtue.

The "riches" in China does not really belong to the individual. Never did. It belongs to the party. Always has been.

 

[tonyget]

How about buy gold to protect your portfolio ？

Anyway，the US seems determined to transfer the semiconductor eco system from TW to the US，we shall see how it goes