China Takes Taiwan, Everyone losses, especially China, Xi's decision

[Arthur Hanson]

If China did take Taiwan, everyone would lose, especially China. TSM and their ecosystem would be destroyed, all sides would suffer catastrophic military losses, the world would go into a depression of such severity, it would take decades to heal and Xi's reputation would be even worse than Hilter's or Stalin's. The attack on Taiwan's and its allies of Japan, Australia, the US, and their allies would be devastating and not only cause political damage, but a scale of economic damage unmatched in human history and the trade and financial relationships that are now intertwined tightly and extend to almost every major and minor economies would collapse. Technology ecosystems are tied into almost every country in the world and unlike WW II, the world is more interdependent on sets of the most widespread and fragile ecosystems ever created. Xi has a very limited time to act either way and the decision before him is to be a man of wisdom or become the most hated and reviled man in human history. The ecosystems the tech industry has built extends into every country is far more fragile for it relies upon literally thousands of relationships of all forms, shapes, and sizes. Xi, the world is watching, the decision is yours and yours alone. Rarely if ever has a single man has had to power to hold the fate of the world in his hands. All this is happening when the challenge of covid demands a level of cooperation and collaboration is now needed more than. Biden is not up to the challenge and this makes the challenges all the greater.

All this would be occurring at a time in human history when we will need AI/ML and other technologies involved to solve the numerous challenges before mankind if we are to survive on this planet in anything greater than an environmentally, socially and economically destroyed planet. These are the challenges we need to face and not a political mess created by politicians that are egotistical fools on all sides. Now more than ever we need the tools of AI/ML and the ecosystem around it to solve the environmental and other substantial problems all of mankind faces. Leaders in tech must accept their responsibility to step foward to the challenges inside and outside of tech for the alternative is beyond anything we may want to face.

 

[thensui]

If... It won´t happen and surely not before a certain tech independence is reached. Meanwhile Taiwanese supply chain player will decentralize operations across the globe. Mostly following TSMC wherever they start building fabs. Once the day comes China will be able to offer to step in with mainland output. Not that I am a big fan of the scenario. However, Xi is not stupid nor is the Chinese Party. Given the tempo they develop and advance their indigenous semi capabilities it takes not another lifetime rather just another decade.

 

[Michael Domnitei]

This hypothesis of China occupying Taiwan proves how wrong was the move of "going global" or "going to China" since now people realize that one shouldn't rely on one vendor or put all the eggs in one basket. It will take a few years until TSM would finish the fabs in Austin and in Japan and perhaps with not the same capabilities/technologies which are in Taiwan. But perhaps China could understand that if they use military to get Taiwan then the whole world would be against them and they would become isolated. However, hope is not a good strategy and we shouldn't underestimate the power and mind of an evil empire.

 

[Bill Martin]

If China did take Taiwan, everyone would lose, especially China. TSM and their ecosystem would be destroyed, all sides would suffer catastrophic military losses, the world would go into a depression of such severity, it would take decades to heal and Xi's reputation would be even worse than Hilter's or Stalin's. The attack on Taiwan's and its allies of Japan, Australia, the US, and their allies would be devastating and not only cause political damage, but a scale of economic damage unmatched in human history and the trade and financial relationships that are now intertwined tightly and extend to almost every major and minor economies would collapse. Technology ecosystems are tied into almost every country in the world and unlike WW II, the world is more interdependent on sets of the most widespread and fragile ecosystems ever created. Xi has a very limited time to act either way and the decision before him is to be a man of wisdom or become the most hated and reviled man in human history. The ecosystems the tech industry has built extends into every country is far more fragile for it relies upon literally thousands of relationships of all forms, shapes, and sizes. Xi, the world is watching, the decision is yours and yours alone. Rarely if ever has a single man has had to power to hold the fate of the world in his hands. All this is happening when the challenge of covid demands a level of cooperation and collaboration is now needed more than. Biden is not up to the challenge and this makes the challenges all the greater.

All this would be occurring at a time in human history when we will need AI/ML and other technologies involved to solve the numerous challenges before mankind if we are to survive on this planet in anything greater than an environmentally, socially and economically destroyed planet. These are the challenges we need to face and not a political mess created by politicians that are egotistical fools on all sides. Now more than ever we need the tools of AI/ML and the ecosystem around it to solve the environmental and other substantial problems all of mankind faces. Leaders in tech must accept their responsibility to step foward to the challenges inside and outside of tech for the alternative is beyond anything we may want to face.

I think Xi cares less what the rest of the World thinks of him. He cares how his People and history show that he re-unified China back towards its history. Getting Taiwan back into China which contains all the National Treasures of China is his first priority. After that it is all 'icing' for him (getting TSMC and potentially having TSMC solely produce Chinese designs. Remember, they are not a capitalistic Country/Market. They spend lots of Yuan on various programs and throw lots of people at the problem (whether this solves a problem or is the most efficient is not of concern). IMHO

 

[Bill Martin]

I think Xi cares less what the rest of the World thinks of him. He cares how his People and history show that he re-unified China back towards its history. Getting Taiwan back into China which contains all the National Treasures of China is his first priority. After that it is all 'icing' for him (getting TSMC and potentially having TSMC solely produce Chinese designs. Remember, they are not a capitalistic Country/Market. They spend lots of Yuan on various programs and throw lots of people at the problem (whether this solves a problem or is the most efficient is not of concern). IMHO

One other comment: Xi/China has been building many fabs and granted these are not up to TSMC's technology nodes nor their yields, but China will continue to invest to keep pushing these forward. If TSMC's fabs are destroyed (doesn't matter who destroys them), the World will feel this and second tier foundries (Intel, GF, Samsung and even the niche suppliers TI, OnSemi, etc) will be around along with the various Chinese fabs. Granted, many of these will not be able to produce sub 10-20nm designs: but does China care? I think China wants to not only level the playing field but back it up a few generations so they can be part of the game (restart the silicon race when China is prepared).