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Jensen Huang on the Future of AI

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
In prep for the GTC Conference next week this is a good read, the Q&A with Jensen from the Q4 2024 Investor call:

Jensen Huang
Okay. Yeah. Well, we guide one quarter at a time. But fundamentally, the conditions are excellent for continued growth calendar '24, to calendar '25 and beyond. And let me tell you why? We're at the beginning of two industry-wide transitions and both of them are industry wide. The first one is a transition from general to accelerated computing. General-purpose computing, as you know, is starting to run out of steam. And you can tell by the CSPs extending and many data centers, including our own for general-purpose computing, extending the depreciation from four to six years.

There's just no reason to update with more CPUs when you can't fundamentally and dramatically enhance its throughput like you used to. And so you have to accelerate everything. This is what NVIDIA has been pioneering for some time. And with accelerated computing, you can dramatically improve your energy efficiency. You can dramatically improve your cost in data processing by 20 to 1. Huge numbers. And of course, the speed. That speed is so incredible that we enabled a second industry-wide transition called generative AI.

Generative AI, I'm sure we're going to talk plenty -- plenty about it during the call. But remember, generative AI is a new application. It is enabling a new way of doing software, new types of software are being created. It is a new way of computing. You can't do generative AI on traditional general-purpose computing. You have to accelerate it.

And the third is it is enabling a whole new industry, and this is something worthwhile to take a step back and look at and it connects to your last question about sovereign AI. A whole new industry in the sense that for the very first time a data center is not just about computing data and storing data and serving the employees of a company. We now have a new type of data center that is about AI generation, an AI generation factory.

And you've heard me describe it as AI factories. But basically, it takes raw material, which is data, it transforms it with these AI supercomputers that NVIDIA builds, and it turns them into incredibly valuable tokens. These tokens are what people experience on the amazing ChatGPT or Midjourney or, search these days are augmented by that. All of your recommender systems are now augmented by that, the hyper-personalization that goes along with it.

All of these incredible startups in digital biology, generating proteins and generating chemicals and the list goes on. And so all of these tokens are generated in a very specialized type of data center. And this data center we call AI supercomputers and AI generation factories. But we're seeing diversity -- one of the other reasons -- so at the foundation is that. The way it manifests into new markets is in all of the diversity that you're seeing us in.

One, the amount of inference that we do is just off the charts now. Almost every single time you interact with ChatGPT, that we're inferencing. Every time you use Midjourney, we're inferencing. Every time you see amazing -- these Sora videos that are being generated or Runway, the videos that they're editing, Firefly, NVIDIA is doing inferencing. The inference part of our business has grown tremendously. We estimate about 40%. The amount of training is continuing, because these models are getting larger and larger, the amount of inference is increasing.

But we're also diversifying into new industries. The large CSPs are still continuing to build out. You can see from their CapEx and their discussions, but there's a whole new category called GPU specialized CSPs. They specialize in NVIDIA AI infrastructure, GPU specialized CSPs. You're seeing enterprise software platforms deploying AI. ServiceNow is just a really, really great example. You see Adobe. There's the others, SAP and others. You see consumer Internet services that are now augmenting all of their services of the past with generative AI. So they can have even more hyper-personalized content to be created.

You see us talking about industrial generative AI. Now our industries represent multi-billion dollar businesses, auto, health, financial services. In total, our vertical industries are multi-billion dollar businesses now. And of course sovereign AI. The reason for sovereign AI has to do with the fact that the language, the knowledge, the history, the culture of each region are different and they own their own data.

They would like to use their data, train it with to create their own digital intelligence and provision it to harness that raw material themselves. It belongs to them, each one of the regions around the world. The data belongs to them. The data is most useful to their society. And so they want to protect the data. They want to transform it themselves, value-added transformation, into AI and provision those services themselves.

So we're seeing sovereign AI infrastructure is being built in Japan, in Canada, in France, so many other regions. And so my expectation is that what is being experienced here in the United States, in the West, will surely be replicated around the world, and these AI generation factories are going to be in every industry, every company, every region. And so I think the last -- this last year, we've seen a generative AI really becoming a whole new application space, a whole new way of doing computing, a whole new industry is being formed and that's driving our growth. ---


The other takeaway is that Nvidia inventories and pre pay to the supply chain are down, yet demand is ahead of supply. To me this is bad planning. I understand that it is hard to prepare for unexpected product surges but that is why these financial people get the big bucks, planning for the future and preparing the supply chain. TSMC is happy to build capacity based on customer commitments. Especially when it comes to packaging since that is easy compared to building fabs. Of course this is just a bump in the road but it is reactive behavior versus proactive. Maybe AI can help Nvidia with that. :rolleyes:

 
In prep for the GTC Conference next week this is a good read, the Q&A with Jensen from the Q4 2024 Investor call:

Jensen Huang
Okay. Yeah. Well, we guide one quarter at a time. But fundamentally, the conditions are excellent for continued growth calendar '24, to calendar '25 and beyond. And let me tell you why? We're at the beginning of two industry-wide transitions and both of them are industry wide. The first one is a transition from general to accelerated computing. General-purpose computing, as you know, is starting to run out of steam. And you can tell by the CSPs extending and many data centers, including our own for general-purpose computing, extending the depreciation from four to six years.

There's just no reason to update with more CPUs when you can't fundamentally and dramatically enhance its throughput like you used to. And so you have to accelerate everything. This is what NVIDIA has been pioneering for some time. And with accelerated computing, you can dramatically improve your energy efficiency. You can dramatically improve your cost in data processing by 20 to 1. Huge numbers. And of course, the speed. That speed is so incredible that we enabled a second industry-wide transition called generative AI.

Generative AI, I'm sure we're going to talk plenty -- plenty about it during the call. But remember, generative AI is a new application. It is enabling a new way of doing software, new types of software are being created. It is a new way of computing. You can't do generative AI on traditional general-purpose computing. You have to accelerate it.

And the third is it is enabling a whole new industry, and this is something worthwhile to take a step back and look at and it connects to your last question about sovereign AI. A whole new industry in the sense that for the very first time a data center is not just about computing data and storing data and serving the employees of a company. We now have a new type of data center that is about AI generation, an AI generation factory.

And you've heard me describe it as AI factories. But basically, it takes raw material, which is data, it transforms it with these AI supercomputers that NVIDIA builds, and it turns them into incredibly valuable tokens. These tokens are what people experience on the amazing ChatGPT or Midjourney or, search these days are augmented by that. All of your recommender systems are now augmented by that, the hyper-personalization that goes along with it.

All of these incredible startups in digital biology, generating proteins and generating chemicals and the list goes on. And so all of these tokens are generated in a very specialized type of data center. And this data center we call AI supercomputers and AI generation factories. But we're seeing diversity -- one of the other reasons -- so at the foundation is that. The way it manifests into new markets is in all of the diversity that you're seeing us in.

One, the amount of inference that we do is just off the charts now. Almost every single time you interact with ChatGPT, that we're inferencing. Every time you use Midjourney, we're inferencing. Every time you see amazing -- these Sora videos that are being generated or Runway, the videos that they're editing, Firefly, NVIDIA is doing inferencing. The inference part of our business has grown tremendously. We estimate about 40%. The amount of training is continuing, because these models are getting larger and larger, the amount of inference is increasing.

But we're also diversifying into new industries. The large CSPs are still continuing to build out. You can see from their CapEx and their discussions, but there's a whole new category called GPU specialized CSPs. They specialize in NVIDIA AI infrastructure, GPU specialized CSPs. You're seeing enterprise software platforms deploying AI. ServiceNow is just a really, really great example. You see Adobe. There's the others, SAP and others. You see consumer Internet services that are now augmenting all of their services of the past with generative AI. So they can have even more hyper-personalized content to be created.

You see us talking about industrial generative AI. Now our industries represent multi-billion dollar businesses, auto, health, financial services. In total, our vertical industries are multi-billion dollar businesses now. And of course sovereign AI. The reason for sovereign AI has to do with the fact that the language, the knowledge, the history, the culture of each region are different and they own their own data.

They would like to use their data, train it with to create their own digital intelligence and provision it to harness that raw material themselves. It belongs to them, each one of the regions around the world. The data belongs to them. The data is most useful to their society. And so they want to protect the data. They want to transform it themselves, value-added transformation, into AI and provision those services themselves.

So we're seeing sovereign AI infrastructure is being built in Japan, in Canada, in France, so many other regions. And so my expectation is that what is being experienced here in the United States, in the West, will surely be replicated around the world, and these AI generation factories are going to be in every industry, every company, every region. And so I think the last -- this last year, we've seen a generative AI really becoming a whole new application space, a whole new way of doing computing, a whole new industry is being formed and that's driving our growth. ---


The other takeaway is that Nvidia inventories and pre pay to the supply chain are down, yet demand is ahead of supply. To me this is bad planning. I understand that it is hard to prepare for unexpected product surges but that is why these financial people get the big bucks, planning for the future and preparing the supply chain. TSMC is happy to build capacity based on customer commitments. Especially when it comes to packaging since that is easy compared to building fabs. Of course this is just a bump in the road but it is reactive behavior versus proactive. Maybe AI can help Nvidia with that. :rolleyes:


I remember many years ago TSMC then CFO decided to visit Nvidia and to talk to Jensen Huang in person. His concern was that accounts receivable on the Nvidia account started piling up to the degree that he would like to set a cap on it. He recalled Mr. Huang told him that TSMC should not treat Nvidia that way. The reason? Jensen told him: One day Nvidia will become a huge huge company! :):)
 
I know JH is prone to over-hyping a bit but people have been saying that about him now for 30 years! In the end though, it is best to take him at his word and ignore the inevitable bumps along the road.

The CSP's have been the key player in semis (esp memory & storage) for 7~8 years now. I had assumed they would resume their [general purpose] DC build out rates, once they'd exhausted the current AI wave. But even before NVDA's recent results, that assumption felt uneasy. After the results I now accept GP DC growth is not going to return as I had assumed before. The earning announcements from Pure, DELL, NTAP this week all tie in to what JH is saying.

The biggest implications...you'd have to think Intel???
 
I know JH is prone to over-hyping a bit but people have been saying that about him now for 30 years! In the end though, it is best to take him at his word and ignore the inevitable bumps along the road.

The CSP's have been the key player in semis (esp memory & storage) for 7~8 years now. I had assumed they would resume their [general purpose] DC build out rates, once they'd exhausted the current AI wave. But even before NVDA's recent results, that assumption felt uneasy. After the results I now accept GP DC growth is not going to return as I had assumed before. The earning announcements from Pure, DELL, NTAP this week all tie in to what JH is saying.

The biggest implications...you'd have to think Intel???

I have met Jensen and have followed him for many years. He is a very likeable and credible guy, one of my favorite all time semiconductor CEOs. He has made many mistakes over the years but he seems to learn from them and pivot quickly. When Intel was looking for a CEO (before BK) I wrote that Intel should acquire Nvidia and take on Jensen as CEO. What a different semiconductor world it would be......

I think Intel and AMD are both on his hit list, maybe Nvidia will acquire one of them? 😂
 
I have met Jensen and have followed him for many years. He is a very likeable and credible guy, one of my favorite all time semiconductor CEOs. He has made many mistakes over the years but he seems to learn from them and pivot quickly. When Intel was looking for a CEO (before BK) I wrote that Intel should acquire Nvidia and take on Jensen as CEO. What a different semiconductor world it would be......

I think Intel and AMD are both on his hit list, maybe Nvidia will acquire one of them? 😂

Don't forget Broadcom. At the closing of Friday Broadcom's market cap is about 3.5 times of Intel's. Will Broadcom buy Intel?

Broadcom likes to acquire a large business and sell pieces of it to make profits. It's sad but this is Broadcom's business model and has been working for them for a while.
 
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