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LRCX – A recovery without memory? Korea share gain? TSMC bonus?- all upside

LRCX – A recovery without memory? Korea share gain? TSMC bonus?- all upside
by Robert Maire on 10-23-2019 at 6:00 am

LAM will likely bounce on Korea gains & TSMC
Memory still sucks but TSMC is hot!
Korea upside from share gains?
Japan/Korea – The “Beer Barometer”

Looks like a good Q3….
We think when Lam reports their Q3 this wednesday it will likely be a positive catalyst for the stock as we think the report will be better… Read More


ASML – In Line Qtr but big bookings – Logic Strong! Memory ? EUV?

ASML – In Line Qtr but big bookings – Logic Strong! Memory ? EUV?
by Robert Maire on 10-20-2019 at 6:00 am

ASML in line QTR with big Orders
Near term slippage w long term upside
Logic is strong but memory recovery unknown
EUV is finally a reality/commercialized

In line quarter- supplier slippage expected in Q4
Results were revenues of Euro 3B and EPS of Euro 1.49, more or less in line with earnings estimate if a tad bit light in revenue. … Read More


TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution

TSMC – Solid Q3 Beat Guide- 5G Driver – Big Capex Bump – Flawless Execution
by Robert Maire on 10-19-2019 at 6:00 am

TSMC puts up solid QTR, Capex increase for 5NM and capacity increase, 5G/mobile remains driver- HPC good 7NM, 27% of revs- Very nice margins!

In line quarter-Good guide
TSMC reported revenues of $9.4B and EPS of $0.62 , more or less in line with expectations, perhaps a touch below ” whisper” expectations which had been… Read More


Micron Mired in Murky Memory Market – Cutting Capex 30%- 2020 Challenging

Micron Mired in Murky Memory Market – Cutting Capex 30%- 2020 Challenging
by Daniel Nenni on 09-29-2019 at 10:00 am

  • Solid Quarter but soft Outlook
  • Recovery Slow- Future Cost Downs Harder
  • Demand slightly ahead of supply-Shelf Stuffed?
  • Bouncing along the Bottom of the Cycle

Results ahead of expectation but guide behind expectation
Quarterly results were slightly better than street expectations at $0.56 EPS and $4.87B in revenues however … Read More


Is Samsung having problems with 7NM? Do long lines at TSMC prove that?

Is Samsung having problems with 7NM? Do long lines at TSMC prove that?
by Robert Maire on 09-19-2019 at 2:00 pm

Reports of increasing TSMC 7NM lead times
There have been a number of increasing media reports about lengthening leads times for TSMC 7NM process. From what we have been able to determine its not due to TSMC having a yield bust or other production issues, it is simply one of stronger than expected demand.

There have been reports of … Read More


The Korea/Japan trade war benefits US more than US/China hurts US

The Korea/Japan trade war benefits US more than US/China hurts US
by Robert Maire on 09-18-2019 at 10:00 am

Investors underestimate Japan/Korea trade war, US chip equip companies get collateral benefit, Long term share shifts in China & Korea, Creates near term upside for US companies, Memory Chip Price “Mirage”.
The lesser known trade war
While the market and the news has been pre-occupied with the ongoing soap
Read More

GloFo & TSMC lawsuit- A Surrogate Trade War- Pushing TSMC into China’s open arms?

GloFo & TSMC lawsuit- A Surrogate Trade War- Pushing TSMC into China’s open arms?
by Robert Maire on 08-29-2019 at 10:00 am

Surrogate Wars
Is GloFo using the trade war as an excuse?
Does TSMC get lumped in with China on trade?
Does this alienate TSMC into China’s embrace?

Much like Vietnam and Korea before it, there have been a number of “surrogate” wars between the US and China as well as many other wars between the US and Russia using… Read More


Memory Manifesto – Examining the “new (slower) normal” of the memory industry

Memory Manifesto – Examining the “new (slower) normal” of the memory industry
by Robert Maire on 08-25-2019 at 12:00 pm

  • The perfect storm that drove memory is over
  • The “new normal” goes back to older model
  • The capex & tech pendulum swings to logic

We try to examine the future of the memory segment of the semiconductor industry given the current market and technology drivers combined with historical behavior.

Passing the Baton
The memory market… Read More


Hopes of a 2020 recovery but nothing solid yet

Hopes of a 2020 recovery but nothing solid yet
by Robert Maire on 08-18-2019 at 6:00 am

An in line quarter

Applied reported a quarter just above the mid point of guidance and analyst numbers (which mimic guidance) with revenues of $3.56B and EPS of $0.74 with guidance of $3.685B+-$150M and EPS o $0.72 to $0.80, also in line with current expectations. All in all a fairly boring quarter with business bouncing along a soft… Read More


Is Hong Kong a preview of Taiwan? Will HK embolden China to take Taiwan faster?

Is Hong Kong a preview of Taiwan? Will HK embolden China to take Taiwan faster?
by Robert Maire on 08-15-2019 at 6:00 am

On our recent Asian tour, Hong Kong was our last leg, arriving this past Friday and departing Monday, the day the airport stood still. We were on a 2:20PM flight out of Hong Kong back to the states which was one of the last flights to leave before the airport was shut down. Much like the China trade issue, the Hong Kong problem looks to be… Read More