-Micron off the proverbial cliff and falling faster
-Looking at a much longer/deeper decline in memory
-Layoffs, capex cuts, slowdowns- battening down the hatches
-Micron seems to imply more of a “U” or “L” shaped downcycle
Author: Robert Maire
Micron Ugly Free Fall Continues as Downcycle Shapes Come into Focus
AMAT and Semitool Deja Vu all over again
-Lam/Semisysco is a repeat of AMAT/Semitool
-Adds wet processing that larger companies lack
-Semisysco tools amazingly similar to those made by Semitool
-Lightning strikes twice for Ray Thompson
Deja Vu all over again
In a clear example of history repeating itself, Lam Research bought Semisysco, a company founded by Ray Thompson,… Read More
Micron- “The first cut isn’t the deepest”- Chops production & forecast further
-Micron announces more production cuts & lower forecast
-DRAM will be negative- NAND sounds barely flat (for now)
-Capital spending to be cut to near zero- essential only
-Will the rest of the industry follow suit?
“The first cut isn’t the deepest”
(Apologies to Rod Stewart)
When Micron first announced… Read More
AMAT – Backlog buffers downcycle- still fighting shortages – WFE down in 2023
-AMAT put up good numbers despite slowing cycle
-Growing backlog will help them manage declining orders
-Parts shortages still haunt but improving for 2-4 more quarters
-2023 will be down- too early to tell how much- 2024 who knows
Good numbers but already adjusted for China
Applied put up revenue of $6.7B and EPS of $2.03 versus … Read More
KLAC- Strong QTR and Guide but Backlog mutes China and Economic Impact
-KLA great quarter & guide as backlog mutes China/Economy
-Patterning starts to catch up to wafer inspection outperform
-China impact is limited to leading edge & specific customers
-Cuts in memory capex less impactful on KLA
KLAC reports strong quarter and good guide
Revenues were $2.7B with EPS of $7.06 versus street… Read More
LRCX down from here – 2023 down more than 20% due to China and Downcycle
-Lam reports good quarter that is high water mark for cycle
-2023 WFE to be down more than 20%- Cuts spending & Hiring
-If we back out deferred rev outlook would be down for Dec
-Memory already Down & China down $2-$2.5B in 2023
Lam reports good quarter but likely peak of current cycle with clear drop
Lam reported revenues of … Read More
Is ASML Immune from China Impact?
-ASML has great QTR & Outlook & Huge Euro8.9B orders
-Relatively immune from China due to mainly non leading edge
-Monster Euro38B backlog – 60EUV & 375DUV systems in 2023
-5% China risk to 2023- still mainly supply constrained
ASML proves litho’s place at Apex of semiconductor food chain
ASML announced… Read More
Chip Train Wreck Worsens
-Semi Equip go from bad to worse as TSMC cuts capex
-Numbers will be slashed for December quarter
-So far just a handful of exceptions to blockade but temporary
-China’s response could be very ugly
Fast motion train wreck
Just when some people thought that Fridays department of commerce announcement couldn’t get worse,… Read More
Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem
-Commerce Dept drops a 100 page nuke on the Semi industry
-Many words but not a lot of clarity on exact impact
-Implementation & interpretation will be key to quantify impact
-It’s all bad, just a question of how bad
China is the industry’s biggest customer
We all know that China uses most of the world’s semiconductors… Read More
Micron and Memory – Slamming on brakes after going off the cliff without skidmarks
-Micron slams on the brakes of capacity & capex-
-But memory market is already over the cliff without skid marks
-It will likely take at least a year to sop up excess capacity
-Collateral impact on Samsung & others even more important
Micron hitting the brakes after memory market already impacts
Micron capped off an otherwise… Read More
Protect against ESD by ensuring latch-up guard rings