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-Micron slams on the brakes of capacity & capex-
-But memory market is already over the cliff without skid marks
-It will likely take at least a year to sop up excess capacity
-Collateral impact on Samsung & others even more important
Micron hitting the brakes after memory market already impacts
Micron capped off an otherwise… Read More
-Where are we in the chip cycle? Why is it different this time?
-No one rings a bell to indicate the top or bottom of a cycle
-Could the lack of self-awareness lead to a worse downturn?
-Who will weather the cycle better & come out on top
Gravitational Cognizance
“A cartoon character will not fall until they realize they should
…
Read More
-KLA sings same cautionary song as LRCX (with Intel Chorus)
-Sees similar softening of WFE & second half
-Same Government “notice” on China/14NM – Same supply ills
-We remain concerned about share loss in patterning
Deja Vue, all over again- Great QTR & Guide amid caution & softening
KLAC reported… Read More
-Lam reports record QTR and great guide amid growing anxiety
-Weakness has not yet trickled down to Lam’s order book
-Company contacted by US government on new China restrictions
-Combination of supply issues/China/economy cut WFE view
Numbers are great
Lam reported revenues of $4.64B and EPS of $8.83 which represented… Read More
-Need more/less spend & more/fewer chips
-The irony of chips act passage & Intel stumble on same day
-Due to excess supply of chips, Intel cuts spending
-Due to shortage of chips, the government increases spending
-How did this happen on the same day? Cosmic Coincidence?
Timing is everything
The irony of intel cutting spending… Read More
-ASML reports strong quarter- Orders up 20% Qtr/Qtr
-Customers rush delivery which delays revenue recognition
-Chip makers need hard to get litho tools most of all
-Warning on concerns about consumer chip demand
Good numbers that are even better in reality
ASML reported revenues of Euro5.4B and EPS of Euro3.54. Most importantly… Read More
-SEMICON good conference -No news but perceptibly nervous
-Memory chip warnings & memories of cycles past haunt us
-Can we turn the clock back 20+ years on China Chip Policy?
-Last ditch efforts on Chips for America before government vacation
SEMICON West Conference
Attendance at the show was good, better than last Decembers… Read More
-If you can’t beat them, embargo them
-It has been reported US wants ASML to halt China DUV tools
-US obviously wants to kill, not just wound China chip biz
-Is this embargo the alternative to failed CHIPS act?
-Hard to say “do as I say, not as I do”- but US does anyway
First EUV ban now DUV ban? Are process & yield… Read More
-Micron reports weak outlook for fiscal Q4
-2023 capex to be down versus 2022 capex of $12B & Q3’s $2B
-Company keeping inventory off street to support pricing
-Memory is usually the first shoe to drop in a down cycle
Sharp drop in demand at end of Q3…..
Micron reported a sharp drop in demand at the end of its fiscal Q3,… Read More
-Chip cycle will come down. Only question is landing impact
-What does cyclical end do to re-shoring & build out plans?
-Is it less demand, excess supply or both? Does it matter?
-CHIP Act rescue efforts get desperate switching to threats
Any landing you can walk away from is a good one
For those of us who have been in the semiconductor… Read More
CES 2025 and all things Cycling