Semiconductor Shortage – No Quick Fix – Years of neglect & financial hills to climb

Semiconductor Shortage – No Quick Fix – Years of neglect & financial hills to climb
by Robert Maire on 03-03-2021 at 8:00 am

Toamagachi Semiconductor shortage

– Semi Situation Stems from long term systemic neglect
– Will require much more than money & time than thought
– Fundamental change is needed to offset the financial bias
– Auto industry is just the hint of a much larger problem

Like recognizing global warming when the water is up to your neck

The problem… Read More


“For Want of a Chip, the Auto Industry was Lost”

“For Want of a Chip, the Auto Industry was Lost”
by Robert Maire on 02-11-2021 at 10:00 am

Auto Assembly Line

Semiconductor production can’t be turned on and off like a switch

Semiconductor fabs have to run 24/7 to make money. They have to be running full all the time to fully utilize the high running costs and in the case of new fabs, high capital costs.

Unlike a brake pad factory hat can hire and fire people at will and source readily … Read More


Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?

Will EUV take a Breather in 2021?
by Robert Maire on 02-07-2021 at 6:00 am

KLA EUV Slowdown

-KLAC- Solid QTR & Guide but flat 2021 outlook
-Display down & more memory mix
-KLAC has very solid Dec Qtr & guide but 2021 looks flattish
-Mix shift to memory doesn’t help- Display weakness
-Despite flat still looking at double digit growth
-EUV driven business may see some slowing from digestion

As always, … Read More


New Intel CEO Commits to Remaining an IDM

New Intel CEO Commits to Remaining an IDM
by Robert Maire on 01-25-2021 at 6:00 am

Pat Gelsinger Intel CEO

-Intel good results had a little extra help to be great
-New CEO commits to remaining an IDM versus fabless
-Claims of strong progress on 7NM fuel optimism inside
-Outsourcing to TSMC will not go away but will increase

A good quarter but with some silicon enhancements from ICAP

Intel reported Revenues of $20B and EPS of $1.52, which… Read More


ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory

ASML – Strong DUV Throwback While EUV Slows- Logic Dominates Memory
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2021 at 6:00 am

ASML SMIC TSMC EUV DUV

ASML has good quarter driven by DUV & Logic (@72%)
– SMIC & other major customer slow EUV plans
– Logic (read that as TSMC) remains key demand led driver
– We are happy memory remains muted given cyclical potential

A very solid quarter with a continued road to growth
The quarter came in at Euro4,254B… Read More


2020 was a Mess for Intel

2020 was a Mess for Intel
by Robert Maire on 01-13-2021 at 10:00 am

Intel 2020 Mess

Understanding Intel’s future means understanding Intel’s past

Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run. There’s still time to change the road you’re on.

Intel is at a crossroad. The road they have been on since inception, and the road that has differentiated them from the rest of the pack… Read More


SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam

SMIC Blacklist puts ASML in Jam
by Robert Maire on 12-20-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC Blacklisted US

US BIS confirms our prediction of “blacklisting” SMIC
SMIC embargoed from 10NM or better technology
Likely related to ASML pressure & WH scorched earth

Not just the stock

We had received a lot of feedback on our Nov 30th note regarding blacklisting of SMIC suggesting that we were wrong and the only thing blacklisted… Read More


Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?

Noose tightens on SMIC- Dead Fab Walking?
by Robert Maire on 12-01-2020 at 6:00 am

SMIC US Embargo

-US Administration to “blacklist” SMIC- Cutting off ALL US help
-A slow death versus a quick death (unlike Jinhua)
-There is enough time on way out door to leave scorched earth
-Reports in the Media about SMIC being “Blacklisted”

It has been widely reported that SMIC will be added to the US “Blacklist”… Read More


China Semiconductor Bond Bust!

China Semiconductor Bond Bust!
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2020 at 10:00 am

China Semiconductor Bond Bust

– Tsinghua $198M Bond Bust
– Good for memory: Samsung Micron LG Toshiba –
– Not good for chip equipment
– Could China Credit Crunch hit more than foundry embargo?
– Damage to China memory positive for other memory makers
– Not good for chip equip if customers can’t get money

China’s… Read More


Is Apple the Most Valuable Semiconductor Company in the World?

Is Apple the Most Valuable Semiconductor Company in the World?
by Robert Maire on 11-25-2020 at 6:00 am

Apple M1

– The new M1 chip unveils previously hidden asset
– Could/should Apple sell semiconductors?
– Are servers next?
– The M1 chip appears to be a rousing success and the beginning of a new era

Essentially 100% of all early reports on the performance of the M1 chip have come back with stellar reviews. Great performance… Read More