At our January 2021 industry update webinar, 20 months ago, we forecast “There’s no tight capacity relief before 2022 at the earliest” whilst simultaneously cautioning “Enjoy the super-cycle … it’ll crash in 2023!” At the time, we were dismissed as being ‘ever optimistic’ for the first prognosis and ‘losing the plot’ for the … Read More
Author: Malcolm Penn
Enjoy the Super-Cycle it’ll Crash in 2023!
The Semiconductor Market Downturn Has Started
What we alone said would surely happen, but what was widely denied by the industry, was confirmed with June’s WSTS Blue Book report. Right on cue with our December 2021 forecast, the current semiconductor Super Cycle is finally drawing to a close and the 17th market downturn has now well and truly started.
The Macro Evidence
At the… Read More
The Roots Of Silicon Valley
The transistor was successfully demonstrated on December 23, 1947, at Bell Laboratories in Murray Hill, New Jersey, the research arm of American Telephone and Telegraph (AT&T). The three individuals credited with its invention were William (Bill) Shockley Jr., the department head and group leader, John Bardeen… Read More
The Chip Market / China Conundrum
In its February 20, 2021 edition, the Economist published an article entitled “How to kill a democracy; China faces fateful choices, especially involving Taiwan”. It went on to quote “To many Chinese, the island’s conquest is a sacred national mission” as well as a by-line “America is losing its ability to deter a Chinese attack… Read More
Samsung- full capex speed ahead, damn the downturn- Has Micron in its crosshairs