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 Semiconductor CapEx strong in 2021

 Semiconductor CapEx strong in 2021
by Bill Jewell on 06-23-2021 at 10:00 am
Categories: Semiconductor Intelligence, Semiconductor Services, TSMC
2 Comments

Semiconductor CAPEX spending versus change 2021

Semiconductor manufacturers are expanding capital spending in 2021 and beyond to help alleviate shortages. In addition, many governments around the world are proposing funding to support semiconductor manufacturing in their countries.

The United States Senate this month approved a bill which includes $52 billion to fund semiconductor research, design, and manufacturing. The bill has support in the U.S. House and from President Biden.

The Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry earlier this month announced a “national project” to support semiconductor manufacturing in Japan.

South Korea announced in May a plan to spend $450 billion over the next ten years on non-memory semiconductor manufacturing paid for by private business and government tax credits.

The European Union in May announced it is ready to commit “significant” funds to expand semiconductor manufacturing in Europe.

These government initiatives will help support investment by semiconductor manufacturers. SEMI’s latest fab forecast predicts the industry will break ground on 19 new high-volume semiconductor fabs in 2021 and 10 in 2022. Equipment spending on these fabs should exceed $140 billion. China and Taiwan will each account for 8 new fabs, with 6 in the Americas, 3 in Europe and the Mideast and 2 each in Japan and South Korea.

Semiconductor industry capital expenditures (CapEx) totaled $113 billion in 2020, according to IC Insights. Projections for 2021 growth range from 16% to 23%.

Three companies accounted for over 50% of semiconductor capital spending in 2020. Samsung, the largest spender in 2020 at $27.9 billion, is expected to keep spending flat in 2021. TSMC will have the largest increase, adding $12.8 billion from 2020 to reach $30 billion in 2021, a 74% increase. TSMC will account for over 60% of the total industry spending increase of $20.4 billion. Intel has stated it will increase spending from $14.3 billion in 2020 to $19.5 billion in 2021, up 37%. The 2021 projections were mostly made in April after first quarter earnings release. Many of these numbers will likely be revised upward over the course of 2021.

The semiconductor industry has traditionally experienced boom-bust cycles. Large investments are made to expand capacity during high demand periods. When demand growth slows or declines, over-capacity leads to declining revenue. This trend is illustrated in the graph below. Annual change in semiconductor capital expenditures is depicted by the green bars on the left axis scale. Annual change in the semiconductor market is shown by the blue line on the right axis scale. The red line labeled “CapEx Danger Line” indicates where an increase in CapEx over 40% leads to trouble for the semiconductor market.

Large increases in semiconductor capital spending are followed in one to two years by a decline (or significant growth deceleration) in the semiconductor market. When the semiconductor market grew 46% in 1984, CapEx increased 106%. This was followed by a 17% decline in the semiconductor market in 1985. In 1988 the semiconductor market grew 38% and CapEx grew 57%. Following this, the semiconductor market decelerated by 30 points to 8% growth in 1989. The next big growth period was in 1993 to 1995, peaking at in 1995 at 42% market growth and 75% CapEx growth. The next year the market declined 9%. An 8% market decline in 1998 was due to the Asian financial crisis.

The semiconductor market expanded by 37% in 2000 at the peak of the internet boom. This was accompanied by a 77% increase in CapEx. In 2001, the market had its largest decline in history at 32%. In 2004 a 28% market increase and 52% CapEx increase was followed by a 21-point deceleration to 7% growth in 2005. Semiconductor market declines in 2008 and 2009 were driven by the global financial crisis. Strong growth returned in 2010 with 32% market growth and 107% CapEx growth. The market decelerated by over 30 points in 2011 to almost zero growth followed by a 3% decline in 2012. In 2017 the market increased 22% and Capex increased 41%. 2017 growth was relatively modest compared to prior peak growth rates. However, two years later in 2019 the market declined by 12%.

There are numerous factors affecting the semiconductor market growth rate including the overall economy and demand for key electronics products. However, large increases in capacity have invariably led to overcapacity when demand slows. The overcapacity leads to semiconductor price declines, especially for commodity products such as memory. Inventories held by electronics manufacturers and distributors are cut. This overcapacity tends to occur following CapEx increases of over 40%. This is indicated by the red CapEx danger line in the graph.

With forecasts of 2021 CapEx growth in the range of 16% to 23%, the industry is nowhere close to the “danger line” of over 40% growth. Even if CapEx growth accelerates in the second half of 2021, it is not likely to exceed 30%. TMSC is comfortable with a 74% CapEx increase since it has numerous foundry customers clamoring for more capacity. Two other foundries, UMC and GlobalFoundries, each plan to at least double CapEx in 2021 versus 2020. Foundry company SMIC of China plans to cut CapEx 25% in 2021 primarily due to trade issues. The memory companies such as Samsung are cautious on CapEx after seeing a 33% decline in the memory market two years ago in 2019.

While the current situation does not portend excessive semiconductor capacity in the near term, it bears watching in the next couple of years. It remains to be seen how much of the current semiconductor shortage is due to short-term disruptions from the pandemic and how much is due to increasing demand for electronic equipment and increasing semiconductor content.

Also Read:

Supply Issues Limit 2021 Semiconductor Growth

Automakers to Blame for Semiconductor Shortage

Electronics Back Strongly in 2021

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Highlights of the TSMC Technology Symposium 2021 – Automotive

Highlights of the TSMC Technology Symposium 2021 – Automotive
by Tom Dillinger on 06-15-2021 at 6:00 am
Categories: Automotive, Events, Foundries, TSMC
1 Comment

automotive market growth v2

At the recent TSMC Technology Symposium, TSMC provided a detailed discussion of their development roadmaps.  Previous articles have reviewed the highlights of silicon process and packaging technologies.  The automotive platform received considerable emphasis at the Symposium – this article specifically focuses on the automotive-related announcements.

As illustrated below, the forecasts of semiconductor content in automotive designs show considerable and extended growth.

Advanced driver assistance systems (Level 4/5 autonomy) will experience high adoption in upcoming models, with extensive sensor integration, requiring significant increases in computational throughput for image processing and decision control.

TSMC described a number of process technology enhancements, ranging from high-voltage power management to microcontroller functionality to image sensors to (5G) wireless vehicle communication to advanced digital performance, all specifically for the “automotive grade” environment.

Review of Automotive Grades

The demanding and varied applications for the electronic control units and sensors in an automotive system necessitate specific definitions of environmental and reliability qualification specifications – in short, these are represented as different grades.  AEC-Q100 is an industry standard specification that defines the specific qualification procedures:

    • AEC-Q100 Grades
        • Grade 0: -40C to 150C  (automotive, under the hood)
        • Grade 1: -40C to 125C  (automotive)
        • Grade 2: -40C to 105C  (industrial)
        • Grade 3: -40C to 85C  (commercial)

BCD Technologies for Automotive

TSMC offers multiple families of BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) technologies, in support of the different high-voltage domains within an automotive network, as illustrated below.

Continuing generational enhancements focus on reducing device on-resistance (Ron), to improve PMIC efficiency.

Embedded NVMs for automotive MCUs

Microcontrollers in automotive ECUs require embedded non-volatile memory blocks, for over-the-air (OTA) maintenance/feature updates.  As the complexity of automotive electronic systems grows, MCUs will trend to newer process nodes for better PPA, and will require dense, high-reliability eNVM technology.

Key aspects of the eNVM reliability are the endurance cycle and data retention performance.  The eNVM roadmap for the TSMC automotive platform is shown below.

At the N28 node, embedded flash memory is being qualified for Grade 0.  Beyond the N28 node, magnetoresistive random access memory (MRAM) technology will be displacing eFlash.  N22 MRAM is in high-volume production (Grade 1, 100K cycles, 10 years retention, and high-immunity to external magnetic field).  N16 MRAM will be (Grade 1) qualified in 4Q22.

N5A

To address the computational requirement of (Level 4/5) data processing, TSMC is extending the production N5 process node to Grade 2 automotive qualification in 2022.

This N5A platform offering involves extending the design enablement support to Grade 2, from PDK models to TSMC library IP to aging/EM reliability analyses.  Correspondingly, the TSMC OIP partners are working on extending their IP support to N5A, as well.

With regards to IP, the automotive platform is also required to demonstrate functional and electrical model quality plus safety features, through compliance with the ISO26262 standard, adhering to Automotive Safety Integrity Level (ASIL) specifications.

 

Clearly, the automotive platform is receiving significant R&D investment at TSMC, in anticipation of extended growth in the semiconductor MCU and sensor content in upcoming years.  Increasing ADAS adoption and sales of EVs are driving a broad set of technology requirements, from PMICs to 5G RF wireless to high-end digital computation.

For more info on TSMC’s automotive platform, please follow this link.

-chipguy

 

 

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Highlights of the TSMC Technology Symposium 2021 – Packaging

Highlights of the TSMC Technology Symposium 2021 – Packaging
by Tom Dillinger on 06-14-2021 at 6:00 am
Categories: Events, Foundries, TSMC
2 Comments

3D Fabric

The recent TSMC Technology Symposium provided several announcements relative to their advanced packaging offerings.

General

3DFabricTM

Last year, TSMC merged their 2.5D and 3D package offerings into a single, encompassing brand – 3DFabric.

2.5D package technology – CoWoS

The 2.5D packaging options are divided into the CoWoS and InFO families.

  • CoWoS-S

The “traditional” chip-on-wafer-on-substrate with silicon interposer for die-to-die redistribution layer (RDL) connectivity is celebrating its 10th year of high-volume manufacturing.

  • CoWoS-R

The CoWoS-R option replaces the (expensive) silicon interposer spanning the extent of the 2.5D die placement area with an organic substrate interposer.  The tradeoff for the CoWoS-R is the less aggressive line pitch for the RDL interconnects – e.g., 4um pitch on the organic, compared to sub-um pitch for CoWoS-S.

  • CoWoS-L

Between the silicon –S and organic –R interposer options, the TSMC CoWoS family includes a newer addition, with a “local” silicon bridge for (ultra-short reach) interconnect between adjacent die edges.  These silicon slivers are embedded in an organic substrate, providing both high density USR connections (with tight L/S pitch) and the interconnection and power distribution features of (thick) wires and planes on an organic substrate.

Note that CoWoS is designated as a “chip last” assembly flow, with die attached to the fabricated interposer.

  • 2.5D package technology – InFO

InFO utilizes (single or multiple) die on a carrier that are subsequently embedded in a reconstituted wafer of molding compound.  The RDL interconnect and dielectric layers are subsequently fabricated on the wafer, a “chip-first” process flow.  The single-die InFO provides a high-bump count option, with the RDL wires extending outward from the die area – i.e., a “fan-out” topology.  As illustrated below, the multi-die InFO technology options include:

    • InFO-PoP: “package-on-package”
    • InFO-oS: “InFO assembly-on-substrate”
  • 3D packaging technology – SoIC

The 3D packages are associated with the SoIC platform, which utilizes stacked die with direct pad bonding, in either face-to-face or face-to-back orientations – denoted as SoIC chip-on-wafer.  Through silicon vias (TSVs) provide connectivity through a die in the 3D stack.

The SoIC development roadmap is illustrated below – as an example, N7-on-N7 die configurations will be qualified in 4Q21.

New Packaging Technology Announcements

There were several key announcements at this year’s Symposium.

  • maximum package size and RDL enhancements

The demand for a larger number of 2.5D die integrated into a single package drives the need for RDL fabrication across a larger area, whether on an interposer or the reconstituted wafer.  TSMC has continued to extend the “stitching” of interconnects past the single exposure maximum reticle size. Similarly, there is a need for additional RDL layers (with aggressive wire pitch).

The roadmap for larger package sizes and RDL layers includes:

    • CoWoS-S: 3X reticle (qualified by YE’2021)
    • CoWoS-R: 45X reticle (3X in 2022), 4 RDL layers on the organic substrate (W/S: 2um/2um), in reliability qualification using an SoC + 2 HBM2 die stacks
    • CoWoS-L: test vehicle in reliability assessment at 1.5X reticle size, with 4 local interconnect bridges between 1 SoC and 4 HBM2 die stacks
    • InFO_oS: 5X reticle (51mm x 42mm, on a 110mm x 110mm package), 5 RDL layers (W/S: 2um/2um), currently in reliability assessment

The figure below illustrates a potential InFO_oS configuration, with logic die surrounded by I/O SerDes chiplets, in support of a high-speed/high-radix network switch.

    • InFO_B (bottom)

The InFO_PoP configuration shown above depicts an InFO assembly with a DRAM module attached on top, with vias between the DRAM and the RDL interconnect layers.

TSMC is altering this InFO_PoP offering, to enable the (LPDDR DRAM) package assembly to be completed at an external contract manufacturer/OSAT, an option denoted at InFO_B, as shown below.

Correspondingly, TSMC has extended the “Open Innovation Platform” to include 3DFabric partners qualified for InFO_B final assembly.  (Currently, the 3DFabric partner companies are:  Amkor Technology, ASE Group, Integrated Service Technology, and SK Hynix.)

    • CoWoS-S “standard architecture” (STAR)

A prevalent design implementation for CoWoS-S is the integration of a single SoC with multiple High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) die stacks.  The data bus width between the logic die and the HBM2E (2nd generation) stacks is very large – i.e., 1024 bits.

The routing and signal integrity challenges to connect the HBM stacks to the SoC through the RDL are considerable.  TSMC is providing systems companies with several standard CoWoS-S design configurations to expedite engineering development and electrical analysis schedules.  The figure below illustrates some of the different CoWoS-S options, ranging from 2 to 6 HBM2E stacks.

TSMC anticipates a high adoption rate of these standard design implementations in 2021.

  • new TIM materials

A thermal interface material (TIM) thin film is commonly incorporated into an advanced package, to help reduce the total thermal resistance from the active die to the ambient environment.  (For very high power devices, there are commonly two TIM material layers applied – an internal layer between the die and package lid and one between the package and heat sink.)

Corresponding to the increased power dissipation of larger package configurations, the TSMC advanced packaging R&D team is pursuing new internal TIM material options, as depicted below.

  • advanced packaging (AP) manufacturing capacity expansion

In anticipation of increased adoption of the full complement of 3DFabric packaging, TSMC is investing significantly in expanding the advanced packaging (AP) manufacturing capacity, as illustrated below.

For more information on TSMC’s 3DFabric technology, please follow this link.

-chipguy

 

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Highlights of the TSMC Technology Symposium 2021 – Silicon Technology

Highlights of the TSMC Technology Symposium 2021 – Silicon Technology
by Tom Dillinger on 06-13-2021 at 6:00 am
Categories: Events, Foundries, TSMC

logic technology roadmap

Recently, TSMC held their annual Technology Symposium, providing an update on the silicon process technology and packaging roadmap.  This article will review the highlights of the silicon process developments and future release plans.

Subsequent articles will describe the packaging offerings and delve into technology development and qualification specifically for the automotive sector.  Several years ago, TSMC defined four “platforms” which would receive unique R&D investments to optimize specific technical offerings:  high performance computing (HPC); mobile; edge/IoT computing (ultra-low power/leakage); and, automotive.  The focus on process development for the automotive market was a prevalent theme at the Symposium, and will be covered in a separate article.

Parenthetically, these platforms remain the foundation of TSMC’s roadmap.  Yet, the mobile segment has evolved beyond (4G) smartphones to encompass a broader set of applications.  The emergence of the “digital data transformation” has led to increased demand for wireless communication options between edge devices and cloud/data center resources – e.g., WiFi6/6E, 5G/6G (industrial and metropolitan) networks.  As a result, TSMC is emphasizing their investment in RF process technology development, to address this expanding segment.

General

Here are some general highlights from the Symposium, followed by specific process technology announcements.

  • breadth of offerings

In 2020, TSMC extended their support to encompass 281 distinct process technologies, shipping 11,617 products to 510 customers.  As in previous years, TSMC proudly stated “we have never shut down a fab.”

  • capacity

Current capacity in 2020 exceeds 12M (12” equivalent) wafers, with expansion investments for both advanced (digital) and specialty process nodes.

  • capital equipment investment

TSMC plans to invest a total of US$100 billion over the next three years, including a US$30 billion capital expenditure this year, to support global customer needs.

TSMC’s global 2020 revenue was $47.78B – the $30B annual commit to fab expansion certainly would suggest an expectation of significant and extended semiconductor market growth, especially for the 7nm and 5nm process families.  For example, new tapeouts (NTOs) for the 7nm family will be up 60% in 2021.

  • US fab

TSMC has begun construction of a US fab in Phoenix, AZ – volume production of the N5 process will commence in 2024 (~20K wafers per month).

  • environmental initiatives

Fabs are demanding consumers of electricity, water, and (reactive) chemicals.  TSMC is focused on transitioning to 100% renewable energy sources by 2050 (25% by 2030).  Additionally, TSMC is investing in “zero waste” recycling and purification systems, returning used chemicals to “electronic grade” quality.

One cautionary note…  Our industry is famously cyclic, with amplified economic upticks and downturns.  The clear message from TSMC at the Symposium is that the accelerating adoption of semiconductors across all platforms — from data-intensive computation centers to wireless/mobile communications to automotive systems to low-power devices – will continue for the foreseeable future.

Process Technology Roadmap

  • N7/N7+/N6/N5/N4/N3

The figure below summarizes the advanced technology roadmap.

N7+ represents the introduction of EUV lithography to the baseline N7 process.  N5 has been in volume production since 2020.

N3 will remain a FinFET-based technology offering, with volume production starting in 2H2022.  Compared to N5, N3 will provide:

  • +10-15% performance (iso-power)
  • -25-30% power (iso-performance)
  • +70% logic density
  • +20% SRAM density
  • +10% analog density

TSMC foundation IP has commonly offered two standard cell libraries (of different track heights) to address the unique performance and logic density of the HPC and mobile segments.  For N3, the need for “full coverage” of the performance/power (and supply voltage domain) range has led to the introduction of a third standard cell library, as depicted below.

Design enablement for N3 is progressing toward v1.0 PDK status next quarter, with a broad set of IP qualified by 2Q/3Q 2022.

N4 is a unique “push” to the existing N5 production process.  An optical shrink is directly available, compatible with existing N5 designs.  Additionally, for new designs (or existing designs interested in pursuing a physical re-implementation), there are some available enhancements to current N5 design rules and an update to the standard cell libraries.

Similarly, N6 is an update to the 7nm family, with increasing adoption of EUV lithography (over N7+).  TSMC indicated, “N7 remains a key offering for the increasing number of 5G mobile and AI accelerator designs in 2021.”

  • N7HPC and N5HPC

An indication of the demanding performance requirements of the HPC platform is the customer interest in applying supply voltage “overdrive”, above the nominal process VDD limit. TSMC will be offering unique “N7HPC” (4Q21) and “N5HPC” (2Q22) process variants supporting overdrive, as illustrated below.

There will be a corresponding SRAM IP design release for these HPC technologies.  As expected, designers interested in this (single digit percentage improvement) performance option will need to address increased static leakage, BEOL reliability acceleration factors, and device aging failure mechanisms.  TSMC’s investment in the development and qualification of processes specifically optimized for individual platforms is noteworthy.  (The last HPC-specific process variant was at the 28nm node.)

  • RF technology

The market demand for WiFi6/6E and 5G (sub-6GHz and mmWave) wireless communications has led TSMC to increase focus on process optimizations for RF devices.  RF switches are also a key application area.  Low power wireless communication protocols, such as Bluetooth (with significant digital integration functionality) are a focus, as well.  Automotive radar imaging systems will no doubt experience growing demand.  The mmWave applications are summarized in the figure below.

The two key parameters typically used to describe RF technology performance are:

  • device Ft (“cutoff frequency”), where current gain = 1, inversely proportional to device channel length, L
  • device Fmax (“maximum oscillation frequency”), where power gain = 1, proportional to the square root of Ft, inversely proportional to the square root of Cgd and Rg

The TSMC RF technology roadmap is shown below, divided into different application segments.

  • N6RF

The N6RF process was highlighted at the Symposium – a device performance comparison to N16FFC-RF is shown below.

The N28HPC+RF and N16FFC-RC processes also recently received enhancements – for example, improvements in the parasitic gate resistance, Rg, were highlighted.  For low-noise amplifier (LNA) applications, TSMC is evolving their SOI offerings at 130nm and 40nm.

  • ULP/ULL Technologies

IoT and edge device applications are forecast to become more pervasive, demanding increasing computational throughput at very low power dissipation (ULP) combined with ultra-low leakage (ULL) static power dissipation for improved battery life.

TSMC has provided ULP process variants – i.e., operational functionality for IP at very low VDD supply voltage.  TSMC has also enabled ULL solutions, with devices/IP utilizing optimized threshold voltages.

An overview of the IoT (ULP/ULL) platform and process roadmap is given below.

The N12e process node was highlighted by TSMC, integrating an embedded non-volatile memory technology (MRAM or RRAM), with standard cell functionality down to 0.55V (using SVT devices; low Vt cells would enable lower VDD and active power at higher leakage).  Comparable focus has been made to reduce the Vmin and standby leakage current of N12e SRAM IP, as well.

Summary

At the Symposium, TSMC introduced several new process developments, with specific optimizations for HPC, IoT, and automotive platforms.  RF technology enhancements are also a focus, in support of rapid adoption of new wireless communications standards.  And, to be sure, although it didn’t receive much emphasis at the Symposium, there is a clear execution roadmap for the advanced mainstream process nodes – N7+, N5, and N3 – with additional continuing process improvements as reflected in the release of intermediate nodes N6 and N4.

For more information on TSMC’s digital technology roadmap, please follow this link.

-chipguy

 

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TSMC and the FinFET Era!

TSMC and the FinFET Era!
by Daniel Nenni on 06-09-2021 at 6:00 am
Categories: FinFET, Foundries, Intel Foundry, TSMC
11 Comments

Intel 22nm wafer

While there is a lot of excitement around the semiconductor shortage narrative and the fabs all being full, both 200mm and 300mm, there is one big plot hole and that is the FinFET era.

Intel ushered in the FinFET era only to lose FinFET dominance to the foundries shortly thereafter. In 2009 Intel brought out a 22nm FinFET wafer at the Intel Developers Conference and announced that chips would be available in the second half of 2011. True to their word, the first FinFET chip (code named Ivey Bridge) was officially announced in May of 2011. I remember being shocked that the details were not leaked prior to the announcement. Intel 22nm was truly a transformative process technology, absolutely.

Intel followed 22nm with 14nm which was late and yield challenged (double patterning FinFETs) which allowed the foundries to catch up (TSMC 16nm and Samsung 14nm). Samsung did a very nice job at 14nm and won quite a bit of business including a slice of the Apple iPhone pie.

TSMC took a different approach to FinFETs. After mastering double patterning on 20nm, TSMC added in FinFETs and called it 16nm. The density was less than Intel 14nm thus the name difference. Samsung 14nm was a similar density as TSMC 16nm but Samsung took the low road and pretended they were competitive with Intel. And that is why process nodes are now marketing terms, my opinion.

This all started what I call the Apple half step process development methodology. TSMC would release a new process version without fail for Apple every year. Prior to that processes were like fine wine, not to be uncorked until they were Moore’s Law ready. The half steps continued with TSMC adding partial EUV to a process already in HVM (7nm) then adding more EUV layers to 5nm and 3nm in a very controlled manner that allowed for superior yield learning and record breaking process ramps.

Intel 14nm is also when the “Intel versus TSMC” marketing battle started. Intel insisted that TSMC 20nm was a failure since it did not include FinFETs and foundries could not follow Intel since they were an IDM and TSMC was just a foundry with no in-house design experience.

As we now know, Intel was wrong on so many levels. First and foremost the foundry business is a services business with a massive partnership ecosystem which puts IDM foundries at a distinct disadvantage. It will be interesting to see how the Intel IDM 2.0 strategy pans out but most guesses are that it will fail harder than the previous attempt, but I digress.

Now let’s take a quick look at the TSMC FinFET process revenue steps starting with Q1 2019 and the Q1s that have followed:

In Q1 2019 FinFETs accounted for 42% of TSMC revenue. In Q1 2020 it was 54.5% In Q1 2021 it was a whopping 63% and you can expect this aggressive ramp to continue for three reasons:

(1) TSMC protects their FinFET processes recipes so there is no second sourcing.

(2) FinFETs mean more performance at less power and less power is critical given the environmental challenges the world is facing.

(3) TSMC is building massive amounts of FinFET capacity ($100B 3 year CAPEX) and with the current semiconductor shortage narrative that is a VERY big deal.

Bottom line: TSMC is pushing their 500+ customers hard into the FinFET era and that will again change the foundry landscape.

The trillion dollar question is: What will happen to the mature (non-FinFET) nodes in the not too distant future? And more importantly, what will happen to the foundries that did not make the jump to FinFETs?

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TSMC 2021 Technical Symposium Actions Speak Louder Than Words

TSMC 2021 Technical Symposium Actions Speak Louder Than Words
by Daniel Nenni on 06-01-2021 at 1:00 pm
Categories: Events, Foundries, TSMC
5 Comments

TSMC Symposium 2021

The TSMC Symposium kicked of today. I will share my general thoughts while Tom Dillinger will do deep dives on the technology side. The event started with a keynote by TSMC CEO CC Wei followed by technology presentations by the TSMC executive staff.

C.C. Wei introduced a new sound bite this year that really resonated with me and that was “actions speak louder than words”. TSMC has always reminded me that it is important to speak softly and carry a big stick. While this does not always get TSMC the best media coverage it works extremely well with customers, and of course is a key ingredient to the TSMC “World’s Trusted Foundry Partner” strategy. Transparency is another key ingredient and you will not find a more transparent foundry than TSMC.

Who else presents defect density numbers? Which is really where the rubber meets the road for ramping new process technologies. Let me remind you how lucky we are to have C.C. Wei leading TSMC. He is a brilliant technologist and a great leader which is a very unique combination. I fully expect the many CEO awards to come his way in the not too distant future, absolutely.

The keynote was followed by presentations from the executive staff.  Noticeably missing was Cliff Hou who is now Senior Vice President, Europe and Asia Sales. My guess is that direct customer experience is a stepping stone to something bigger for Cliff. That and gray hair.

Learn About:

  • TSMC’s smartphone, HPC, IoT, and automotive platform solutions
  • TSMC’s advanced technology progress on 7nm, 6nm, 5nm, 4nm, 3nm processes and beyond
  • TSMC’s specialty technology breakthroughs on ultra-low power, RF, embedded memory, power management, sensor technologies, and more
  • TSMC’s advanced packaging technology advancement on InFO, CoWoS®, and SoIC and other exciting innovations
  • TSMC’s manufacturing excellence, capacity expansion plan, and green manufacturing achievement
  • TSMC’s Open Innovation Platform® Ecosystem to speed up time-to-design

Y.J. Mii (Senior Vice President, Research & Development) discussed advanced logic technologies, technology innovation beyond 3nm, and advanced integration technologies.

Kevin Zhang (Senior Vice President, Business Development) discussed specialty technology development and offerings.

Y.J. Mii (Senior Vice President, Research & Development) discussed advanced technology value aggregation, design ecosystem readiness for N5-N4-N3, and RF design platform update, and 3DIC design ecosystem for system innovation.

Y.P. Chin (Senior Vice President, Operations) provided a manufacturing update with new capacity ramping and new fab status, advanced packaging and testing operation, and green manufacturing.

This was followed by more technical sessions on advanced technology for smartphone and HPC platforms, 3D fabric technology, advanced RF and analog technology, BCD technologies for PMIC, eNVM and automotive, and ultra-low power technology for IoT platforms.

There is a LOT of information to cover so let us know what you are most interested in and we will prioritize as appropriate. Or ask us questions and we can answer them directly.

Hopefully the other foundries will take this symposium to heart and talk more about actions and how they have helped customers, the environment, and the world of electronics in a transparent manner. Thank you for reading and there is plenty more to come.

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Is IBM’s 2nm Announcement Actually a 2nm Node?

Is IBM’s 2nm Announcement Actually a 2nm Node?
by Scotten Jones on 05-09-2021 at 6:00 am
Categories: Foundries, Semiconductor Services, TechInsights, TSMC
11 Comments

Slide1

IBM has announced the development of a 2nm process.

IBM Announcement

What was announced:

  • “2nm”
  • 50 billion transistors in a “thumbnail” sized area later disclosed to be 150mm2 = 333 million transistors per millimeter (MTx/mm2).
  • 44nm Contacted Poly Pitch (CPP) with 12nm gate length.
  • Gate All Around (GAA), there are several ways to do GAA, based on the cross sections IBM is using horizontal nanosheets (HNS).
  • The HNS stack is built over an oxide layer.
  • 45% higher performance or 75% lower power versus the most advanced 7nm chips.
  • EUV patterning is used in the front end and allows the HNS sheet width to be varied between 15nm to 70nm. This is very useful to tune various areas of the circuit for low power or high performance and also for SRAM cells.
  • The sheets are 5nm thick and stacked three high.

Is this really “2nm” as claimed by IBM? The current leader in production process technology is TSMC. We have plotted TSMC node names versus transistor density and fitted a curve with a 0.99 R2 value, see figure 1.

Figure 1. TSMC Equivalent Nodes.

Using the curve fit we can convert transistor density to a TSMC Equivalent Node (TEN). Using curve fit we get a TEN of 2.9nm for the IBM announced 333MTx/mm2. In our opinion this makes the announcement a 3nm node, not a 2nm node.

To compare the IBM announcement in more detail to previously announced 3nm processes and projected 2nm processes we need to make some estimates.

  • We know the CPP is 44nm from the announcement.
  • We are assuming a Single Diffusion Break (SDB) that would result in the densest process.
  • Looking at the cross section that was in the announcement, we do not see Buried Power Rails (BPR), BPR is required to reduce HNS track height down to 5.0, so we assume 6.0 for the process.
  • To get to 333MTx/mm2 the Minimum Metal Pitch must be 18nm, a very aggressive value likely requiring EUV multipatterning.

IBM 2nm Versus Foundry 3nm

Figure 2 compares the IBM 2nm devise to our estimates for Samsung and TSMC 3nm processes. We know Samsung is also doing a HNS and TSMC is staying with a FinFET at 3nm. Samsung and TSMC have both announced density improvements for their 3nm processes versus their 5nm processes so we have known transistor density for all three companies and can compute TEN for all three. As previously noted, IBM’s TEN is 2.9, we now see Samsung’s TEN is 4.7 and TSMC’s TEN is 3.0 again reinforcing that IBM 2nm is like TSMC 3nm and Samsung is lagging TSMC.

The numbers in red in figure 2 are estimated to achieve the announced densities, We assume SDB for all companies. TSMC has the smallest track height because a FinFET can have a 5.0 track height without BPR, but HNS needs BPR to reach 5.0 in BPR isn’t ready yet.

Figure 2. IBM 2nm Versus Foundry 3nm.

IBM 2nm Versus Foundry 2nm

We have also projected Samsung and TSMC 2nm processes in figure 3. We are projecting that both companies will use BPR (BPR is not ready yet but likely will be when Samsung and TSMC introduce 2nm around 2023/2024). We also assume that Samsung and TSMC will utilize a forksheet NHS (HNS (FS) architecture to reach a 4.33 track height relaxing some of the other shrink requirements. We have then projected out CPP and MMP based on the company’s recent shrink trends.

Figure 3. IBM 2nm Versus Foundry 2nm.

 Power and Performance

At ISS this year I estimated relative power and performance for Samsung and TSMC by node with some additional Intel performance data. The trend by node is based on the companies announced power and performance scaling estimates versus available comparisons at 14nm/16nm. For more information see the ISS article here.

Since IBM compared their power and performance improvements to leading 7nm performance I can place the IBM power and performance on the same trend plots I previously presented, see figure 4.

Figure 4. Power and Performance (estimates).

 IBM’s use of HNS yields a significant reduction in power and makes their 2nm process more power efficient than Samsung or TSMC’s 3nm process, although we believe once TSMC adopts HNS at 2nm they will be as good or better than IBM for power. For performance we estimate that TSMC’s 3nm process will outperform the IBM 2nm process.

As discussed in the ISS article these trends are only estimates and are based on a lot of assumptions but are the best projections we can put together.

Conclusion

After analyzing the IBM announcement, we believe their “2nm” process is more like a 3nm TSMC process from a density perspective with better power but inferior performance. The IBM announcement is impressive but is a research device that only has a clear benefit versus TSMC’s 3nm process for power and TSMC 3nm will be in risk starts later this year and production next year.

We further believe that TSMC will have the leadership position in density, power, and performance at 2nm when their process enters production around 2023/2024.

Also Read:

Ireland – A Model for the US on Technology

How to Spend $100 Billion Dollars in Three Years

SPIE 2021 – Applied Materials – DRAM Scaling

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You know you have a problem when 60 Minutes covers it!

You know you have a problem when 60 Minutes covers it!
by Robert Maire on 05-03-2021 at 2:00 pm
Categories: Intel Foundry, Semiconductor Advisors, Semiconductor Services, TSMC
11 Comments

60 Minutes Chip Shortage

-Chip shortage on 60 Minutes- Average Joe now aware of chip issue
-Intel sprinkling fairy dust (money) on New Mexico & Israel
-Give up on buy backs and dividends
-Could Uncle Sam give a handout to Intel?

You normally don’t want to answer the door if 60 Minutes TV crew is outside as it likely doesn’t mean good things. But in the case of the chip industry, the shortage that has been talked about in all media outlets has finally come home to prime time.

The chip shortage that has impacted industries across the board from autos to appliances to cigarettes so it has gotten prime time attention;

CBS 60 Minutes program on Chip Shortage

60 Minutes got hold of some of our past articles including our recent ones about the shortage and China risks and contacted us.

We gave them a lot of background information and answered questions about the industry and shortages as we wanted to help provide an accurate picture.

Overall, we think they did a great job representing what was going on in the industry and were both accurate and informing.

Does Intel have its hand out?

We have previously mentioned that we thought that Intel was looking for government help and maybe a handout which was touched upon in Pat Gelsinger’s interview , up front. While certainly not directly asking for money, it certainly sounds like Intel wouldn’t say no. Intel was clearly shopping the idea under the previous administration in the White House as well as previous Intel management.

The chip shortage both amplifies that prior request as well as makes it more timely. It also gets even more timely when it is put under the banner of infrastructure repair.

Intel is going to hemorrhage Money

We have said that Intel’s financial’s were going to get a lot worse before they got any better.

We suggested they would triple spend 1) Spend to have TSMC make product 2) Spend to catch up to TSMC (like on EUV and other tools) 3) spend to build extra capacity to become a foundry.

Intel, Gelsinger, even said on 60 minutes that they are not going to be doing stock buy backs.

Intel in Israel & New Mexico

Intel has just announced that in addition the the $20B for two new foundries that it is spending in Arizona, it is spending $3.5B in New Mexico on packaging technology & capacity.

Intel is also spending $200M on a campus in Haifa, $400M for Mobileye in Israel and $10B to expand its 10NM fab in Kiryat Gat, Israel . Its interesting to note that the spend in Israel is not mentioned on Intel’s newsroom website as it likely doesn’t fit the “move technology & jobs back to the US” that Gelsinger espoused on 60 Minutes.

Between spending on production at TSMC, fixing Intel, building foundries, New Mexico, Mobileye, Israel (likely Ireland as well)…Intel is going to be raining down money all over.

Mark Liu on 60 minutes

Mark Liu was also interviewed as the clear leader in technology and capacity in the chip industry. We think that Liu was very accurate and straight forward when he said that TSMC was surprised that Intel had fumbled.

He also clearly is on the side of the industry that downplays the shortages and thinks they will be short lived.

As to the “repatriation” of the chip industry to the US, as expected he sees no reason for it.

He also stayed away from commentary about the “Silicon Shield” provided to Taiwan by its leadership in chips.

TSMC is clearly in the drivers seat and is not likely to change any time soon

The Stocks

Given the spending and gargantuan task ahead we have suggesting avoiding Intel’s stock as its going to both take longer and cost more than anyone suggests and the odds of success aren’t great.

Gelsinger is on a world tour sprinkling fairy dust around which he will need the luck of as we go forward.

We would not be surprised if the government does indeed write Intel a check as they are the US’s only and last hope of getting back in the semiconductor game which is so critical to our future, not to mention our short term needs.

All this spend will do zero to help the shortage but the shortage did at least bring these issues (many of which we have been talking about for years) to the forefront of peoples minds.

We do continue to think that the semi equipment industry will likely benefit big time especially ASML as they have a lock on EUV.

We also think equipment companies can make a few bucks on their old 6″ and 8″ tools if they can resurrect manufacturing as those are the fabs in shortest supply.

Also Read:

KLAC- Great QTR & Guide- Foundry/logic focus driver- Confirms $75B capex in 2021

Lam Research performing like a Lion – Chip equip on steroids

ASML early signs of an order Tsunami – Managing the ramp

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How to Spend $100 Billion Dollars in Three Years

How to Spend $100 Billion Dollars in Three Years
by Scotten Jones on 04-25-2021 at 6:00 am
Categories: Foundries, Semiconductor Services, TechInsights, TSMC
12 Comments

Slide1 1

TSMC recently announced plans to spend $100 billion dollars over three years on capital. For 2021 they announced $30B in total capital with 80% on advanced nodes (7nm and smaller), 10% on packaging and masks and 10% on “specialty”.

If we take a guess at the capital for each year, we can project something like $30B for 2021 (announced), $33.5B for 2022 and $36.5B for 2023. $30B + $33.5B + $36.5B = $100B. The exact breakout by year for 2022 and 2023 may be different than this but overall, the numbers work. If we further assume that the 80% spending on advanced node ratio will be maintained over the three years, we get: $24B for 2021, $26.8B for 2022 and $29.2B for 2023 ($80B total).

What kind of advanced capabilities can you buy for $80B over 3 years?

Figure 1 illustrates our view of TSMC’s advanced node plans.

Figure 1. TSMC Advanced Node Plans.

To begin 2021, TSMC had record 7nm revenue in Q1 and we believe they needed to add 25K wafer per month (wpm) of capacity to do that, whether that spending was in 2021 or late 2020 is subject to debate. 5nm was in production beginning in the second half of 2020 and we believe a farther ramp up of 60k wpm will take place in 2021 reaching 120k wpm by year end. Also, in late 2021 will be 3nm risk starts requiring the completion of one cleanroom phase and an estimated 15k wpm of 3nm capacity.

2022 will see the ramp up of 3nm with an additional 60K wpm of capacity.

2023 Will see the build out of 5nm capacity at the Arizona fab, and an additional 45k wpm of 3nm capacity. Finally, we expect 2nm risk starts in 2023 requiring a cleanroom build out and 15k wpm. Where 5nm and 3nm are being produced in 3 cleanroom phases each, TSMC has announced that 2nm will be built in four cleanroom phases and we have planned on two phase in 2023.

Figure 2 illustrates our view of TSMC’s capital spending by node for 7nm, 5nm, 3nm and 2nm.

Figure 2. TSMC Capital Spending on Advanced Nodes.

In 2021 we have $4.6B for 7nm capacity, $15.2B for additional 5nm capacity and $6.4B for the initial 3nm cleanroom and risk starts capability. The total $26.3B is more than the calculated $24B so some of the 7nm capacity may be in 2020 or some of the 3nm spending may be in 2022.

In 2022 we have $23.2B for additional 3nm capacity, this is less than the $26.8B expected for 2022. Because 2023 is expected to have spending in Arizona, more 3nm capacity and the initial 2nm build out it is possible 2022 may see less capital spending than we initially assumed and 2023 more capital spending.

For 2023 we have the first 5nm phase built out in Arizona for $5.7B, additional 3nm capacity for $15.4B and the initial build out of 2nm for $9.3B. The total for 2023 is $33.5B, more than the estimated $29.2B.

If we add up our forecast over three years, we get $79.8B versus the $80B estimate assuming 80% of the announced $100B is spent on advanced nodes. We should also keep in mind that the $100B is a three-year estimate subject to changing market conditions.

In this scenario, in 2023 TSMC will have 140k wpm of 5nm production capacity, 120k wpm of 3nm production capacity and 15k wpm of 2nm risk start capacity.

Also Read:

SPIE 2021 – Applied Materials – DRAM Scaling

Kioxia and Western Digital and the current Kioxia IPO/Sale rumors

Intel Node Names

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TSMC Ups CAPEX Again!

TSMC Ups CAPEX Again!
by Daniel Nenni on 04-16-2021 at 6:00 am
Categories: Events, Foundries, TSMC
1 Comment

TSMC 1Q21 Revenue by Platform

We were all pleasantly surprised when TSMC increased 2021 Capex to a record $28 billion. To me this validated the talk inside the ecosystem that Intel would be coming to TSMC at 3nm. We were again surprised when TSMC announced a $100B investment over the next three years which belittled Intel’s announcement that they would spend $20B on two new fabs in Arizona.

It wasn’t clear what the TSMC investment included but we now know (via the Q1 2021 Investor Call) that it’s predominantly CAPEX starting with $30B in 2021 and the rest over 2022 and 2023. Personally, I think TSMC CAPEX will end up being more than $100B because TSMC tends to be conservative with their numbers, absolutely.

Let’s take a look at CC Wei’s opening statement on yesterday’s investor call:

CC Wei First, let me talk about the capacity shortage and demand outlook. Our customers are currently facing challenges from the industry-wide semiconductor capacity shortage, which is driven by both a structural increase in long-term demand as well as short-term imbalance in the supply chain. We are witnessing a structural increase in underlying semiconductor demand as a multi-year megatrend of 5G and HPC-related applications are expected to fuel strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years. COVID-19 has also fundamentally accelerate the digital transformation, making semiconductors more pervasive and essential in people’s life.

D.A.N. The short term imbalance is of course the drop in utilization last year due to the uncertainty brought by the pandemic and now the hockey stick shape rebound which includes some panic buying. The bottom line is that we have enough capacity today and more than enough capacity coming tomorrow so no worries here.

CC Wei: To address the structural increase in the long-term demand profile, we are working closely with our customers and investing to support their demand. We have acquired land and equipment and started the construction of new facilities. We are hiring thousands of employees and expanding our capacity at multiple sites. TSMC expects to invest about USD 100 billion through the next 3 years to increase capacity, to support the manufacturing and R&D of leading-edge and specialty technologies. Increased capacity is expected to improve supply certainty for our customers and help strengthen confidence in global supply chains that rely on semiconductors.

D.A.N. Based on what we have seen on the SemiWiki job board TSMC is indeed hiring thousands of employees and the TSMC job posts are getting 2x more views than average. And yes TSMC is already spending that $100B, $8.8B was consumed in Q1 2021.

CC Wei:  Our capital investment decisions are based on 4 disciplines: technology leadership, flexible and responsive manufacturing, retaining customers’ trust and earning the proper return. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading node, new investment in mature nodes and rising material costs. Therefore, we will continue to work closely with customers to sell our value. Our value includes the value of our technology, the value of our service and the value of our capacity support to customers. We will look to firm up our wafer pricing to a reasonable level.

D.A.N. Translation: there will be pricing adjustments to compensate for the added capacity.

CC Wei:  Next, let me talk about the automotive supply update. The automotive market has been soft since 2018. Entering 2020, COVID-19 further impact the automotive market. The automotive supply chain was affected throughout the year, and our customers continued to reduce their demand throughout the third quarter of 2020. We only began to see sudden recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020.

However, the automotive supply chain is long and complex with its own inventory management practices. From chip production to car production, it takes at least 6 months with several tiers of suppliers in between. TSMC is doing its part to address the chip supply challenges for our customers.

D.A.N. Some car companies have shortages and some don’t, it all depends on inventory and who cut orders in 2020. Toyota I’m told has the best managed inventory and is still making cars. Other car companies not so much.

CC Wei: Finally, I will talk about the N5 and N3 status. TSMC’s N5 is the foundry industry’s most advanced solution with the best PPA. N5 is already in its second year of volume production with yield better than our original plan. N5 demand continue to be strong, driven by smartphone and HPC applications, and we expect N5 to contribute around 20% of our wafer revenue in 2021.

D.A.N. I was told by a gaming chip leaker that there is panic buying in crypto and gaming which may explain TSMC’s big HPC numbers. Also, the word inside the ecosystem is that Samsung is having problems so there is a burst of 5N and 3N design activity. In fact, 80% of the 2021 CAPEX is being spent on 5N and 3N (which are pretty much identical fabs using different process recipes).

CC Wei: N3 will be another full node stride from our N5 and will use FinFET transistor structure to deliver the best technology maturity, performance, and cost for our customers. Our N3 technology development is on track with good progress. We continue to see a much higher level of customer engagement for both HPC and smartphone applications at N3 as compared with N5 and N3 at a similar stage.

D.A.N. This is due to Samsung’s failure at 3nm. Scotten Jones did a nice blog on this earlier this year:

ISS 2021 – Scotten W. Jones – Logic Leadership in the PPAC era

CC Wei: Risk production is scheduled in 2021. The volume production is targeted in second half of 2022. Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology. Thus, we are confident that both our 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer will be large and long-lasting nodes for TSMC.

D.A.N. Apple iProducts will be 3N next year which means HVM in 2H 2022. The IDM foundries (Intel and Samsung) do initial product introductions and spend a year or two ramping up to HVM so it is hard to compare new process introduction dates.

You can join a more detailed discussion here in the experts forum: TSMC Q1 2021 Earnings Conference Call