Peter - You make good points and thank you for sharing your thoughtful views. You are right...China is moving up value chain and becoming more of a threat to many incumbent companies. The Chinese firms have the advantage of built-in large domestic market, government subsidies and Chinese protectionist policies. It'll be interesting to see if China's application to the CPTPP will force it to make any changes (I highly doubt it).
If Gogoro and its partners in China, India and Indonesia are successful in expanding their network of recharging stations and adding subscribers, it could be big and perhaps set a "standard" for battery-swapping for the scooter industry. Yes, it could be yet another Taiwanese company leading another niche market. Their subscription model is the key to both their profitability and survival as they may or may not bring their smart scooters to those foreign countries.
I think Arthur is referring to TSMC being Taiwan's Silicon Shield. It's an interesting question...will the US/Japan and its allies step in to protect Taiwan against a possible Chinese invasion? Now I'll politely disagree with lilo777 when he states "unification is inevitable" and nobody will notice...but that is of course, my opinion.
As for Taiwan setting worldwide standards, I'll defer to Arthur. I was thinking perhaps e Ink (electronic ink) and TSMC (process nodes) as examples where Taiwan has a technological lead...but I don't know if those would count as "worldwide standards".
Agree on all points. I doubt CPTPP will do anything to force it to make any changes, they've always been a bit of a thug when it comes to fair trade.
I'd love to see Gogoro succeed. I just wonder if they have enough of a reach to set the standard for hot swap batteries for scooters in those other markets. They're certainly doing a good job growing the ecosystem around the hot swap battery concept and integrating it, but whether that's unique enough to add that much value in those other countries or get the funding to rapidly expand into those markets to give them a formidable market share advantage is the million dollar question. I don't find their smart energy solution to create much value in Taiwan itself, I think their latest model has a battery pack of 2.6kwh, combined with 30 packs only provides 78kwh of reserve capacity for the grid, which is like a drop in the bucket for a microgrid in Taiwan. There are scooter companies in India that have similar business models so it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. I don't think China would be too thrilled about a Taiwanese company having explosive growth within its borders, I doubt Gogoro will even bother with the mainland. Only other question is how protective of a market Indonesia and Vietnam turns out to be.
As for the Silicon Shield, I too don't agree with what lilo777 states, this isn't the same as Hong Kong where we knew inevitably that control would go back to the hands of Beijing, that was stipulated in the agreements made back in the 19th century, whereas there is nothing of the sort with Taiwan. Hong Kong and Macau were "peaceful" transitions due to legally binding agreements, I don't like how Beijing sped up the timeline of integration, but nobody can say we didn't see it coming, it was only a matter of when. With Taiwan, it'll take full on invasion to take by force. It's not a few hundred square miles we're talking about. Every country will notice, the only way I can see it not being the outbreak of another global scale conflict is if China seizes control decisively, immediately. Many Taiwanese would rather TSMC be sabotaged and destroyed than let it get in the hands of Beijing.
Japan can't constitutionally help even though the Japanese people want to come to Taiwan's defense, they'll have to make changes to their constitution immediately with the outbreak of a conflict. Korea's in an uncomfortable position of being a stone throw's away and would probably want to avoid getting involved at all cost due to its close proximity, not sure they can stomach the collateral damage. Much of SE Asia is in China's pockets so I'm afraid they might keep their distance. The rest of the Western powers are in Europe and with their stretched thin military budgets and geographical distance, I wonder how effective their aid would be. Australia, definitely closer than the European peers but their navy is barely a fledgling blue water navy and their air force...zero bombers, zero long range fighters, not much to contribute. Where Russia and India stand would be interesting, India might take advantage of the situation to take some contested territory, and Russia...I don't see them wanting to aid the Chinese either.
My friends in Taiwan highlight how little and lacking the training is as a conscript in Taiwan. The amount of ammunition to hone their shooting skills is less than civilian gun owners here use at a day at the range. The flagship of Taiwan's Navy are destroyers US decommissioned back in the 1990s, Air Force mostly made up of F-16s delivered throughout the 90s. Interesting thing is Taiwan spent twice as much per capita as South Korea did on their military in 1988 and come 2019, it's exactly the opposite, South Korea spends twice as much per capita on their military as Taiwan. Taiwan had a few years head start on economic development as it proclaimed independence in 1945, started off much wealthier than South Korea with the KMT having moved immense amount of historical artifacts and gold among other things of value from the mainland whereas South Korea started from the ashes of the Korean War in 1953 and had literally nothing to start with. That might explain why Taiwan has better numbers as a net creditor nation vs South Korea. Even though South Korea had the benefit of being recognized as an independent nation in many organizations and trade groups, they never took it for granted and invested in a blue water navy, having some of the most powerful destroyers, developing advanced non nuclear subs, home grown strike aircraft, long range ballistic missiles and rockets, own design nuclear reactors, etc. etc. I'm a bit disappointed Taiwan didn't invest enough in itself to defend itself, they don't have any good excuse. The people you see being interviewed when asked what they think if China were to attack, their response feels like they're relying too much on America coming to their aid. Taiwan did create indigenous military hardware in decades past, but they've become too passive in beefing up their defenses and I really wonder if they have the wherewithal to defend themselves in the initial onslaught if China decides on a military option.
On the other hand, that's probably where I do agree with lilo777, if TSMC is gone, will the world collapse? No, it'll disrupt supplies and be an immense nuisance, but the world will move on, because what's the alternative? As he points out, Samsung and Intel will gladly fill its shoes, it'll take time to ramp up production and it might set back the clock a year or two on the most advance process, but that's about it. I agree with him that it has absolutely nothing to do with world peace. The fallout, nuclear or otherwise, from China's military option would have far bigger implications than whether TSMC is around or not. I'd hate to admit it, but from an American protectionist view, knocking out TSMC entirely so that it doesn't fall into Beijing's hands would be to America's advantage.