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Intel Q12022 beats but offers disappointing guidance

hist78

Well-known member
▪ First-quarter GAAP revenue of $18.4 billion, down 7% year over year (YoY), and non-GAAP revenue of $18.4 billion, down 1% YoY, exceeded January guidance. Achieved record quarterly revenue in Intel's Network and Edge Group, Mobileye and Intel Foundry Services businesses.

▪ First-quarter GAAP earnings-per-share (EPS) was $1.98; non-GAAP EPS was $0.87, which exceeded January guidance by $0.07. Exceeded January guidance for EPS and gross margin.

▪ Reaffirming full-year 2022 revenue guidance.

▪ Intel’s Client Computing Group, which includes PC chips, produced $9.29 billion in revenue, down 13% and below the $9.42 billion consensus estimate among analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.



 
I think Intel has a structure problem in their product offering. Since last year Intel can't enjoy the boom time the whole semiconductor industry has experienced. Many of those major players are seeing double digit quarterly YoY growth.
 
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The most interesting comment I saw on this was about inflation. Flat revenues in a world of 6%+ inflation is falling real revenues.

Now, we know that chips often go into products that price erode over time (a unit of computing gets cheaper year on year). Yet inflation must raise the input prices for Intel (and other chipmakers) - not least labour. How much of this can really be pushed onto hard-pressed consumers when so much of this spending is discretionary ? This is a question for the industry as a whole and not just Intel.

The second point is that inflation is known to be bad for capital intensive industries (like fabs) as it erodes the value of the future earnings. I start to understand why Intel wants to spend other people's money (taxpayers) on the new fabs now ...
 
.▪ Intel’s Client Computing Group, which includes PC chips, produced $9.29 billion in revenue, down 13% and below the $9.42 billion consensus estimate among analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.

That says it all, the stuff on the side has record sales but the core's weak. If we include inflation it's worse.
 
The most interesting comment I saw on this was about inflation. Flat revenues in a world of 6%+ inflation is falling real revenues.

Now, we know that chips often go into products that price erode over time (a unit of computing gets cheaper year on year). Yet inflation must raise the input prices for Intel (and other chipmakers) - not least labour. How much of this can really be pushed onto hard-pressed consumers when so much of this spending is discretionary ? This is a question for the industry as a whole and not just Intel.

The second point is that inflation is known to be bad for capital intensive industries (like fabs) as it erodes the value of the future earnings. I start to understand why Intel wants to spend other people's money (taxpayers) on the new fabs now ...
Intel's problem is more than just inflation. During the earnings conference call, Pat Gelsinger pointed out that COVID-19 lockdown, supply chain constraints, and Russian invasion in Ukraine are impacting Intel's business. IMO, there are more.

Intel Q1 -1% YoY revenue growth is a very serious sign of troubles ahead. There wasn't any analyst bothered to ask why Intel Q1 2022 revenue growth is contradicting to major semiconductor peers who have released earnings data recently for the same period of time.

Q1 2022 vs. Q1 2021 Revenue (Excluding equipment manufacturers):

Intel: -1% (-1% non GAAP, -7% GAAP)
TI: 14%
Micron: 25% (Fiscal Quarter ended March 3, 2022)
MediaTek: 32.1%
UMC : 34.7%
TSMC: 36%
Samsung Memory: 39%
Qualcomm: 41%
SK Hynix 43%
 
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Intel's problem is more than just inflation. During the earnings conference call, Pat Gelsinger pointed out that COVID-19 lockdown, supply chain constraints, and Russian invasion in Ukraine are impacting Intel's business. IMO, there are more.

Intel Q1 2% YoY revenue growth is a very serious sign of troubles ahead. There wasn't any analyst bothered to ask why Intel Q1 2022 revenue growth is contradicting to major semiconductor peers who have released earnings data recently for the same period of time.

Q1 2022 vs. Q1 2021 Revenue (Excluding equipment manufacturers):

Intel: 2%
TI: 14%
Micron: 25% (Fiscal Quarter ended March 3, 2022)
MediaTek: 32.1%
UMC : 34.7%
TSMC: 36%
Samsung Memory: 39%
Qualcomm: 41%
SK Hynix 43%
Wait until AMD reports and compare to them. Intel and AMD are in a price war right now which might explain the situation.
 
Intel missed the historical boom time for semiconductor industry last year with a small 2% YoY revenue growth.

Now Intel's Q1 2022 revenue is down 1% YoY and the Q2 2022 revenue is forecasted to be down by 3% YoY. It really puts a lot pressure on Intel to bring in a significant amount of revenue in the Q3 and Q4 2022 in order to achieve their 2% 2022 revenue growth target.

 
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Intel have lots of 12th gen CPU inventory that is moving slow right now. When AMD launch new 5nm CPU in Q3, Intel have to drop price to compete. The margin of Intel will just get worse.
 
Wait until AMD reports and compare to them. Intel and AMD are in a price war right now which might explain the situation.
I corrected my typo of Intel Q1 YoY growth rate. It should be -1% (-1% non GAAP, -7% GAAP), not 2%.
 
I think Intel has a structure problem in their product offering. Since last year Intel can't enjoy the boom time the whole semiconductor industry has experienced. Many of those major players are seeing double digit quarterly YoY growth.
Smartphone processors are already fabless design, foundry made. AMD is following same path, 45% YoY as a result. Maybe Intel's having fabs is now a liability.
 
Smartphone processors are already fabless design, foundry made. AMD is following same path, 45% YoY as a result. Maybe Intel's having fabs is now a liability.
It's getting harder and harder for Intel to shoulder new node development cost and fab construction/operating cost all by themselves. The Intel Foundry Service and government subsidies can help except it might be too little and too late.

How do you think?
 
It's getting harder and harder for Intel to shoulder new node development cost and fab construction/operating cost all by themselves. The Intel Foundry Service and government subsidies can help except it might be too little and too late.

How do you think?
As just another fabless processor design company, it could be even more competitive for Intel. But fab power doesn't seem to provide Intel with the advantage it once had.
 
It's getting harder and harder for Intel to shoulder new node development cost and fab construction/operating cost all by themselves. The Intel Foundry Service and government subsidies can help except it might be too little and too late.

How do you think?

What we're seeing these days is Intel's previous conundrum. We know they had like 3~4 year delay in their former 10nm(Intel 7) node ramp up. But judging from their future product line-up, they'll be in a much better position than they are with Intel 4 3 20A...etc. But they'll not be able to go back to what they were 20 years ago(even to 6 years ago). IFS might help them a bit if it works. But nowhere close to the good old days.

Intel's problem is more than manufacturing leadership. 10 years ago, CPUs ruled the computing market (so they ruled both design and manufacturing). But these days, not. CPU performance increase slowed down a lot, IT companies look for alternative chips like GPU, FPGA, and some blabla XPU. These new ideas are suitable for a pure IP market, which Intel doesn't have.

This also means that there will be a massive change in backend software engineer jobs but that's another story.
 
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