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Automated Documentation of Space-Borne FPGA Designs

Automated Documentation of Space-Borne FPGA Designs
by Daniel Nenni on 02-21-2022 at 10:00 am

Kepler Schem

Over the past three years, I’ve spoken frequently with Cristian Amitroaie, CEO and co-founder of AMIQ EDA, to understand how the company is helping engineers cope with the challenges of chip design and verification. With their broad customer base and many years of experience in the EDA business, the folks at AMIQ really seem to understand what their users need and how they can help.

As I was thinking that it was about time to touch base with them again, it occurred to me that I had never had the chance to interview one of their users. As soon as I asked, Cristian introduced me to three engineers from Kepler Communications Inc. Alexander Smith is an FPGA designer, Eric Murphy Zaremba is a member of the software team, and Francisco Morales is a project manager. They kindly agreed to spend some time with me to talk about the challenges they face in their chip projects and how AMIQ EDA has been able to help. Here’s a summary of our discussion.

Q: Let’s start with the company. I see from your website URL Kepler.space that you appear to be developing space-based applications. Is this accurate?

A: Very much so. Our mission is to build the Internet in space. We design and build satellites that are launched into low-earth orbit.

Q: It seems that a bunch of companies are providing satellite-based Internet connectivity; what makes Kepler unique?

A: Good question. We are very different. All those other companies are trying to use satellites to provide Internet access to Earth-based users. Our goal is to provide Internet access to space-borne asserts, including satellites, space stations, launch vehicles, and habitats.

Q: But those applications already talk to Earth and can access the Internet that way. Where does Kepler come in?

A: Satellite communication requires line of sight, so there are many times when space-borne assets are out of contact with the ground. A typical customer of ours has only a few ground stations, so connectivity is highly intermittent. It is expensive and logistically difficult to license ground stations all around the world. With our full constellation of satellites, we will always be in contact with the ground and able to connect any space-borne asset with the Internet 24×7. Our Internet in space provides universal access with speed and reliability comparable to what’s available on Earth.

Q: Doesn’t that require a lot of satellites?

A: Yes, it does. When fully built out, we will have 100-200 satellites in our constellation. We have 19 in operation already, so at this point we can provide space-based store-and-forward data services. With every additional group of satellites deployed, we move closer to universal real-time Internet connectivity in space.

Q: That is fascinating. Do you develop the satellites yourselves?

A: Yes, we design and assemble the payloads in house. We use FPGAs to implement what is essentially a software-defined radio to provide the connectivity both to other space assets and to ground stations on Earth.

Q: Can you give me a sense of the complexity of your designs and your design flow?

A: We use a Xilinx FPGA that has around 270K look-up tables (LUTs), so it’s significant in size. We have more than 450 Kepler-written RTL modules and almost 300 additional modules from other library and IP sources. The design includes an Arm processor, so software plays a key role in system operation. Our design flow is fairly standard: we write SystemVerilog RTL code and feed it into Xilinx logic synthesis and place-and-route tools. The design itself is quite complex and challenging, but we haven’t had any major issues in design implementation.

Q: What issues did you have in your development process?

A: Well, documentation turned out to be a big challenge. Given that we’re developing a whole new type of application, our design is quite novel, and it evolved a lot over the course of the project as we learned new things and added more functionality. Every time this happened, it was vital that the design documentation be updated correctly to match the design changes. Of course, when a module changes, designers of the adjoining modules need to know. Many hardware changes also require updates to the embedded software running on the Arm processor, and the documentation is the official way to communicate between the two teams.

Q: How did you address this issue?

A: Several members of the team had experience with Python’s built-in documentation capabilities and with Doxygen, which automatically generates documentation from annotated C/C++ code. We thought that there might be a similar open-source solution for SystemVerilog, but we uncovered none that supported all the constructs we used. When we investigated commercial solutions, we quickly found that only Specador Documentation Generator from AMIQ EDA had the features we needed.

Q: How do you use Specador to generate your documentation?

A: Because it’s built on the same technology that AMIQ uses for all its tools, it fully comprehends the SystemVerilog design. It automatically documents the design hierarchy by reading the modules and ports from the RTL code. It generates usage lists for submodules, including the conditions from generate statements. We were particularly impressed by this; it’s a good example of how Specador really “understands” the code.

The generation includes the contents of comment blocks, so we can add text to be incorporated in the documentation. We can create tables more easily than with other methods we’ve used in the past. Specador also generates nice diagrams for finite state machines (FSMs) and timing diagrams as specified with the popular Wavedrom format.

Q: That sounds like a lot of functionality. Is there more?

A: We should also mention the generation of register maps, since the application programming interface (API) for the registers is the main point of interaction between the software and the hardware. We write up register maps in code comments, which Specador includes in the documentation. The automatic regeneration of documents whenever registers change ensures that the software and hardware stay in sync. In fact, the programmers include permalinks to the relevant documentation pages right in their embedded source code.

Q: Who uses the generated documentation? Internal teams only, or customers as well?

A: As mentioned earlier, the documentation is critical for hardware and software engineers to stay in sync. We use our boards only for our own systems, so there’s no need for end customer documentation. However, we have used subcontractors to help with our projects, and we used to have to update their documentation by hand. We can now keep them in sync as well.

Q: How is Specador run in your development flow?

A: We use a continuous integration (CI) methodology, in which builds and tests are automatically triggered whenever RTL or software is checked in. Specador is run at least once a day on the whole design automatically as part of the nightly build process, and sometimes more frequently by individual users.

Q: Is there anything you don’t like about Specador?

A: The generated documentation is sparse, but it serves our needs for internal communication. Specador can be a bit “overzealous” in doing certain types of formatting. We just go back and tweak our code, but perhaps a bit more control would be nice. We’ve also requested a more intuitive way to specify register maps since the hardware/software API is so important to us. AMIQ has been responsive to our suggestions, and we haven’t found any serious problems with the tool.

Q: Can you quantify the benefits of using Specador for your FPGA designs?

A: Clearly, we save minutes or hours manually editing the documentation whenever something changes in the design, and that adds up over time. Since the documentation remains in sync, it serves as the communication mechanism it should be. This saves multiple email messages and voice calls among team members each day as the design evolves. This has been even more valuable during the pandemic, with many engineers working from home on varying schedules. We can’t just stick our heads into nearby cubicles to ask quick questions.

Perhaps the biggest saving comes from not having to debug tricky problems that occur when the hardware and software get out of sync. It’s hard to quantify, but surely that saves weeks of effort throughout the course of the project.

Q: Do you have any changes planned for the future?

A: We have every intention of continuing to use Specador on all our designs. It’s been a real benefit for us.

Q: Thank you for sharing all this great information!

A: It was a pleasure.

Also read:

Continuous Integration of RISC-V Testbenches

Continuous Integration of UVM Testbenches

What’s New with UVM and UVM Checking?


Intel 2022 Investor Meeting

Intel 2022 Investor Meeting
by Scotten Jones on 02-21-2022 at 6:00 am

Figure 1 Process Innovations

Last Thursday Intel held their investors meeting, in this write up I wanted to focus on my areas of coverage/expertise, process technology and manufacturing.

Technology Development presented by Ann Kelleher

Last year Intel presented their Intel Accelerated plan and, in this meeting, we got a review of where Intel stands on that roadmap.

Intel is targeting performance per watt parity with the foundries in 2024 and leadership in 2025. This is something I am following very closely, I was due to present “Logic Leadership 2025” at the ISS conference in January but the conference is now delayed to the beginning of April. I am doing a deep dive comparison of Intel, Samsung and TSMC process technology through 2025 in that presentation, not wanting to preempt myself I am not going to cover that material here other than to say if Intel hits these goals, they will be competitive.

Figure 1 presents a slide from the presentation talking about Intel’s history of innovation. Intel claims that every major transistor innovation for 20 years has been delivered by Intel. I would agree that has been true until recently but at 5nm TSMC introduced SiGe FinFET fin and at 3nm Samsung is currently ramping the first Horizontal Nanosheet (HNS) devices. When Intel introduces their RibbonFET HNS they will be at one to two years behind Samsung. Intel does appear to be leading the backside power delivery race.

Figure 1. Process Technology Innovations.

It was interesting to hear that they are putting a focus on predictable execution and modular development. They are working more with equipment suppliers and adopting industry best known methods. In my opinion these are all good moves on Intel’s part. For too long Intel has missed out on developments done outside of the company that were readily available to others from the equipment suppliers.

Figure 2 presents Intel’s EUV roadmap.

Figure 2. EUV Roadmap.

Two comments on this figure, originally the 18A process node was due in 2025 and I expected it would be the first High-NA EUV node, but it is now planned for the second half of 2024 and will be manufactured with 0.33NA EUV.

My second comment is that Intel is making a lot of the fact that they are due to get the first High-NA EUV tool and they are presenting this as a competitive advantage. What I have heard is that Intel gets the first High-NA tool but TSMC gets the second roughly a month later, that doesn’t strike me as a significant advantage.

Figure 3 presents the future process progression from 4 to 3 to 20A to 18A. I thought it was funny to see the graphic is of FinFETs for 20A and 18A when they are HNS processes. Its not really important as it is just for illustration purposes but I noticed it.

Figure 3. Future Nodes.

Intel is targeting five “nodes” in 4 years, a pace that is faster than we have seen from anyone in the industry in the past and a huge acceleration for a company that took 3 years for the 14nm node and 5 years for the 10nm node.

  • 7nm – Intel’s original 10nm process ramped in 2019, they then developed the 10+ or super fin node and now have the enhanced Super Fin node they have renamed 7nm. I agree this is an appropriate renaming as the density and performance are similar to the foundry 7nm nodes. 7nm delivers a 10% performance per watt boost over the 10 Super Fin through more strain and lower resistance for faster channels and better routing. 7 entered production in early 2022.
  • 4nm – originally referred to as 7nm, I pointed out some time ago that based on the 2x density improvement Intel was expecting it would be like a foundry 4nm process and they have now renamed it 4nm. It is interesting to me that they are no longer talking about a specific number for the density change making me wonder if it will be less dense than originally expected. The current quote is “significant density jump”. The process will deliver a 20% performance per watt improvement versus 7nm and be Intel’s first use of EUV and is due in the second half of 2022.
  • 3nm – I view this as kind of a half-node such as the foundries often do, it will have denser libraries, an optimized metal stack with less via resistance, more EUV use and provide an 18% performance per watt improvement. It is due in the second half of 2023.
  • 20A (A for angstrom, this is equivalent to 2nm) will be a HNS (Intel calls this RibbonFET) and Backside Power Delivery (Intel calls this PowerVia). This process is expected to provide a 15% performance per watt improvement and is due in the first half of 2024. I am surprised that the performance doesn’t take a bigger jump with the new transistor type and BPD, Samsung is claiming a 35% jump for their FinFET to HNS transition (although Samsung’s 5nm process wasn’t a very strong offering so 3nm being a lot better is less impressive than it might otherwise be).
  • 18A – I view this as another half-node, it will offer a 10% performance per watt improvement, smaller linewidths and is due in the second half of 2024. This was originally expected in early 2025 and Dr. Kelleher said they have already delivered an 18A test chip to a customer, they expect 2 tape outs in 2022 and 4 test chips in the first half of 2023. It surprises me that they have silicon they are showing customers this early.

This is an incredibly aggressive roadmap and from everything presented it sounds like Intel is on or ahead of schedule, that is a great achievement.

I am not going to discuss Intel’s packaging technology here but they do have an impressive portfolio in that area.

Manufacturing was presented by Keyvan Esfarjani

Intel is investing to accelerate new nodes and grow scale. They are leveraging their advanced packaging and “world class supply chain”.

Figure 4 illustrates Intel’s planned five nodes in four years on the left side, scale in the middle, and global footprint on the right.

Figure 4. Intel Manufacturing Strategy.

In the talk it was mentioned that Intel would roughly double their “manufacturing footprint” by 2026. I am not sure what that means exactly, the middle of figure doesn’t show a doubling of wafers starts so they presumably mean the number of transistors produced that is a product of additional wafer starts and node shrinks.

On the right side of the figure both fabs and packaging facilities are shown, a few comments on the fabs:

  • Oregon is home to Intel’s R&D facilities and also some production. Fabs RP1, DC1 + Fab 15 expansion, D1D, D1X, D1X phase 2 and phase 3 are all there. D1C/15 and D1D are former development fabs used for production now. The various phases of D1X lead the latest generation logic process development and RP1 is research path finding.
  • Ireland is home to Fab 24, Fab 24 phase 2 and the new Fab 34. Ireland is a production site.
  • New Mexico is transitioning to packaging and is also where 3D XPoint memory is developed. Fabs 11x, 11x phase 2 and 11x 3D are there.
  • Arizona is home to Fabs 12C, 32 and 42 and the under construction Fabs 52 and 62. Arizona is a production site.
  • Israel is home to Fabs 28, 28 phase 2 and the under construction Fab 38.
  • Ohio will be home to two planned new fabs initially with additional fabs in the futures.
  • New EU site is under discussion for a multi fab complex.
  • Dalian China – not shown, sold to SK Hynix.

Figure 5 illustrates Intel’s “Smart Capital” plan.

Figure 5. Smart Capital.

The left side of the figure shows the time versus investment of the various parts of building a fab. The plan is to build big shells in advance since they are a smaller segment of the cost and take the longest to build, and then fill them with equipment as needed. This has been standard practice at TSMC for a long time and is a good practice to adopt. I should also mention that my data is that it takes Intel significantly more capital to build a fab shell per square meter than anyone else and hopefully they are addressing that as well.

They are also planning to use both internal and external capacity and are seeking government support and customer prepays to help offset capital costs.

Figure 6 illustrates the idea that getting into the foundry business will allow Intel to use their assets longer. From the start I have questioned why Intel wants to get into the foundry business. Intel’s gross margins are over 50%, in the foundry business TSMC as the market leader gets 50% gross margins but everyone else is closer to 25%. As a foundry start up I would expect Intel to have margins around 25% for a very long time. The only thing that made sense to me was getting longer life out of their assets and here they discuss that.

Intel and TSMC both started bringing 300mm fabs on-line for the 130nm node around 2001/2002, Intel’s 130nm, 90nm, 65nm and 45nm capability are long gone, converted to 32nm and smaller nodes. TSMC on the other hand is still running 130nm, 90nm, 65nm and 40nm fabs.

Figure 6. New Operational Model.

Conclusion

A lot of what Intel is doing is adopting best practices from others. The big take away to me is that they appear to have gotten back on track on development and are executing on a roadmap that has the potential to get them back at or near process leadership.

Also read:

Tower Semi Buyout Tips Intel’s Hand

Intel buys Tower – Best way to become foundry is to buy one

The Intel Foundry Ecosystem Explained

 


Semiconductor Earnings Roundup

Semiconductor Earnings Roundup
by Doug O'Laughlin on 02-20-2022 at 10:00 am

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ON, ACLS, RMBS, AOSL, CAMT, ICHR, ONTO, SUMCO, and more!

SUMCO was the best call I read this quarter. There were many great bits of information but I want to start with the stat that really shocked me.

First of all, with regard to the LTAs out to 2026 and whether we did make progress in the last 3 months, that is correct. In the last 3 months, we were ultimately able to fully lock in LTAs for all of the capacity.

Additionally, both SUMCO and Global Wafers were extremely adamant that supply couldn’t be brought on immediately as they are missing key tools to add capacity and they believe that output won’t start ramping until 2023. They will continue to ramp their new factory until 2025, but that won’t be enough to satisfy wafer demand.

Until then the thing that will continue for wafer companies is price raises. These price rises are yet another part of why semiconductor costs are rising everywhere. SUMCO’s price raises are 10% annually until 2024, mostly to offset the increasing rise of deprecation for their capacity ramp.

The thing that was so confusing is if they are raising prices 10% a year, adding capacity, and most of their operating profit growth was primarily from price raises, why aren’t they pushing more capacity ASAP? Part of it seems to be an oligopoly decision from Shin-Etsu, Global Wafers, and SUMCO, but another part is it truly seems like they cannot. They are having the same lead time problem as the rest of the fabs.

Sadly, there are many individual processes to fabricating a wafer at SUMCO. So regardless of the price of the equipment, the absence of even a single piece of equipment will prevent us from completing the wafer fabrication process.

The next part that gave me pause was they believe that their demand model is booked out to 2026, inclusive of industry capacity additions. Given there really are only 3 wafer suppliers, I candidly have to ask what the hell is going on? Will we be talking about wafer shortages 2 years from now?

Part of the problem is that ramping greenfield investment is something that SUMCO said was extremely challenging for them in 2017, and this will be challenging to ramp greenfield again.

Unfortunately, the lack of experience meant that we really struggled in 2017 and 2018. We have since focused on learning from our mistakes, and mistakes often create the biggest opportunity for learnings. As a result, this time around, our workforce is much more experienced and prepared.

And as an organization, because of our previous struggles, we now have a deeper bench of experienced workers. This is why we believe we can undertake this kind of large-scale expansion. That is my view.

I would also say that equipment operators require significant accumulated experience. These are not the kind of jobs, where you can pick up the skills very easily over a short period of time.

Another part of the wafer shortage story that made me ask “WTF” out loud once again was the 200mm wafers. SUMCO said that they would never add 200mm wafers and that there is no way to increase 200mm wafers. All of their supply improvements have been brownfield expansion and according to SUMCO, the 2021 capacity additions are the end of their brownfield ability to expand. The equipment no longer exists.

It is possible that 200-millimeter prices could continue to rise over time. Equally, you could see a pause in the rise in prices. There is no way to increase 200-millimeter volume. The equipment is no longer available and older facilities that have been idled, are obsolete. So increasing volume is not possible.


As good as it’s going to get

The trailing edge looks like it will be the worst impacted by price raises, especially 150mm and 200mm wafers. Price raises will likely continue as long as there are mission-critical and qualified products that are unlikely to swap over. Think of automotive analog and other products. Meanwhile, 200mm wafers will never see additions of capacity. This is a bit reminiscent of the Fortran programming shortage.

Anyways I want to talk about the other slides they had in their deck, particularly their demand graphs and their customer inventory graphs.

First, let’s talk about their demand builds. They expect Smartphone units to increase at a 4.9% CAGR from 1.3 billion units to 1.65 billion units, but starting points matter. From 2019 at 1.48 billion units this is only a 1.9% unit CAGR. So the real differential is content increases, they expect approximately 4.5% annual content increases in smartphones. That sounds correct to me.

Next, they talk about HPC demand, and I really liked this unit analysis because I have never seen anyone take a crack at it before.

They believe that HPC will be approximately a ~14.7% CAGR in unit growth, and given its the largest incremental growth market I believe that this is correct. I believe that value will likely outgrow this, but something like a mid-double-digit value CAGR plus ~15% unit CAGR will net us to a 20%+ growth market.

On to DRAM and NAND. They expect DRAM bit growth rate to be approximately 20% and scaling to be 10%, so wafer volume growth will be the differential at 10%.

NAND’s bit growth has essentially kept in line with the demand rate, with a slight differential that shows up in wafer demand (1%). But going forward bit growth will start to decelerate and one of the ways to solve this is to bond wafers together, and this will be a new incremental wafer demand.

Last but not least I want to talk about their inventory graphs. I really don’t know how to read the graphs, and I interrupted this as colored as their estimates and the trailing as historical quarterly inventory builds. Are the forward estimates monthly or quarterly? The number scheming implies monthly.

They believe that wafer inventories are falling massively right now, as depletion is starting to take customers below 1 month of inventory.

This chart shows estimated customer inventory for 300-millimeter wafers. You can clearly see the sharp decline in customer inventories. This is for 300-millimeter wafers as a whole. We believe that customer inventory has dropped to 1 month. If inventories drop below the 1-month level, it creates a precarious situation for the customers.

If we then look at the next slide, Slide 11, which breaks out customer 300-millimeter wafer inventory between logic and memory, you can see that logic is already at 0.7 months, while memory is around 1.2 months. So as you can see, the shortages are particularly acute for logic.

I am unsure what to make of this, but they essentially believe that memory customer inventory spiked during the 2019 cycle, remained high until 2021, but now are going to systematically decrease. I thought the inventory charts in general brought more questions up than answered. Inventories are clearly down at Logic (makes sense) but up in memory and rising (that is bearish!) but should come down soon (good!).

Maybe the context of their entire capacity being booked until 2026 paired with falling inventories is the point they were trying to make. There is information for both the bears and bulls in this chart.

The rest of the earning update is behind a paywall, I just thought everyone should read the SUMCO update.

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Also read:

The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Cost

How France’s Largest Semiconductor Company Got Stolen in Plain Sight

TSMC Earnings – The Handoff from Mobile to HPC


AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022

AMAT – Supply Constraints continue & Backlog Builds- Almost sold out for 2022
by Robert Maire on 02-20-2022 at 6:00 am

Applied Materials

-Production constraints push backlog up $1.3B to $8B
-Looks like $100B in WFE 2022 VS $80B in 2021
-Almost sold out for 2022- Could lead to continued growth 2023
-Insp/metrology up 68% Y/Y- Expect steady growth in 2022

Can’t keep up with demand….

Revenue came in at $6.27B and NonGAAP EPS of $1.89. A very slight beat of about 3 cents on EPS and about $75M on revenues. Guidance was more or less flat with current expectations at $6.35B+-$300M and EPS of $1.90 +-$0.15. Basically Applied remains very much supply constrained due to parts shortages and other issues impacting the industry. As an example of this backlog was up $1.3B to a huge $8B in total

“Close to sold out” in 2022

Perhaps most telling was a simple statement that the company is more or less sold out for 2022. This suggests that they don’y expect constraints to disappear any time soon and they will be constrained for most of the coming year.

They did talk about being up single digits every quarter in 2022 as they work out from under some of the supply constraints. Systems were good at $4.6B and display was OK at $380M. Inspection/metrology was especially hot up 68% Y/Y- Taking share

One of the highlights was the inspection metrology division which was up a huge 68% year over year, far more than any competitor, exactly double KLA’s 34% year over year growth.

Wafer inspection was strong but E-Beam doubled year over year.
Its clear from the numbers that Applied is taking share in this part of the market even more than their core dep and etch.

Inspection/metrology was less impacted by the supply constraints which also helped its huge growth as compared to the rest.

Foundry/logic continues to dominate

Foundry/logic continues to be the biggest driver as foundries need to beef up capacity. We are sure that China and TSMC were a big part of it. Memory spending remains under control and recent price hikes in NAND make us feel more confident about continued reserved memory spend going forward. Foundry/logic tends to use a lot more inspection/metrology which also helps account for the outsize performance there

$8B in backlog should help smooth out numbers

Historically ASML and KLA have shipped out of backlog which allowed them to “dial in ” the numbers more effectively. The main limiting factor is the ability to get parts. Even with those limitations having that much backlog should smooth out potholes in demand.

If backlog continues to grow as the company remains supply constrained we wouldn’t be surprised to get to $10B in backlog.

$100B in WFE in 2022 up from $80B in 2021

Applied is looking for roughly $100B in WFE revenues in 2022 which could be even higher , up to $110B, if it weren’t for the supply constraints. This is versus last years huge $80B.

Given the expected single digit revenue growth throughout the year it looks like maybe $45B in the first half perhaps growing to $55B in the second half as constraints get dealt with

Does 2022 set up continued growth in 2023?

We are certainly in the strongest cycle we have ever witnessed in the semiconductor industry and right now with limits on 2022 its starting to look like those constraints may set up 2023 as a growth year as demand from 2022 falls over into 2023…or maybe not.

Its still very early to tell and we still don’t know when chip shortages will end. Most every cycle we have seen ends with the industry going off a cliff without skid marks. It certainly doesn’t feel like that can happen right now, but it always feels good up until the point when it isn’t.

Right now the industry has enough to deal with in shipping product in 2022 without worrying about which direction we are going in 2023. We think its just way too early to say for certain about 2023 even though early signs are positive.

The stock
Applied came in more or less as expected and guided more or less as expected. Normally this would cause the stock to drop as it wasn’t a “strong beat and raise”, but given that the stocks have retreated a lot in recent weeks, just making the numbers without a disappointment may be cause for a bump up.

We are certainly underwhelmed by the in line performance but enthused about the longer term prospects of a good year. Its not like the stock is cheap as it retreated to a more realistic valuation after being over done for a long time.

We see no super compelling reason to own more and if the stock moved significantly higher on in line results we may be tempted to take more money off the table.

About Semiconductor Advisors LLC
Semiconductor Advisors is an RIA (a Registered Investment Advisor), specializing in technology companies with particular emphasis on semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies.

We have been covering the space longer and been involved with more transactions than any other financial professional in the space.

We provide research, consulting and advisory services on strategic and financial matters to both industry participants as well as investors.

We offer expert, intelligent, balanced research and advice. Our opinions are very direct and honest and offer an unbiased view as compared to other sources.

Also Read:

Tower Semi Buyout Tips Intel’s Hand

Semiconductor Growth Moderating

The Intel Foundry Ecosystem Explained


Podcast EP63: The growing importance of interconnect architecture

Podcast EP63: The growing importance of interconnect architecture
by Daniel Nenni on 02-18-2022 at 10:00 am

Dan and Mike are joined by Matt Burns, technical marketing manager at Samtec. Matt focuses on why interconnect architecture has become so important for state-of-the-art system designs. The markets that are driving these requirements, along with the challenges and how to address them are provided.

The discussion concludes with an overview of the types of capabilities Samtec offers to address high-performance interconnect in advanced system designs.

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in these podcasts belong solely to the speaker, and not to the speaker’s employer, organization, committee or any other group or individual.


CEO Interview: John Mortensen of Comcores

CEO Interview: John Mortensen of Comcores
by Daniel Nenni on 02-18-2022 at 6:00 am

john

John Mortensen is the CEO & CCO of Comcores. He has been with Comcores since 2019, and has been leading the commercial function since 2020 and was appointed CEO in early 2021. John is focused on creating the best possible customer experience when you do business with Comcores. An experience where you, as a customer, sense how we constantly strive to develop cutting-edge IP’s, how we make an effort to create value, support you in your technology development, and where you can trust that we do our best to deliver on our promises.

John has 20 years of leadership experience within sales and business development in international companies across many different cultural settings. He has vast experience in connecting capabilities across technical and commercial teams and in using input from customers to influence technology roadmap. In addition, he holds an eMBA from Henley Management College.

What’s the Comcores backstory?
Comcores is a Key supplier of digital IP Cores and IP solutions for digital subsystems. Comcores’ mission is to provide best-in-class, state-of-the-art, quality IP components and systems to ASIC, FPGA, and System vendors. Thereby drastically reducing their product cost, risk, and time to market.

Our long-term background in building communication protocols, ASIC development, wireless networks and digital radio systems has brought a solid foundation for understanding the complex requirements of modern communication tasks. This know-how is used to define and build state-of-the-art, high-quality products used in communication networks.

What problems/challenges are you solving?
Comcores develops and licenses digital solutions for advanced communication systems. Our strong portfolio of Ethernet IP’s, timing solutions and security components enables our customers’ advanced solutions to meet the latest requirements ahead of the competition.

Being an expert in time-sensitive-networking (TSN) and nano-second timing precision, Comcores supports mission-critical projects, accelerates customers’ project development and reduces their hidden risk and cost. Our product portfolio also includes high-speed interconnects, advanced chip-to-chip interfaces, complex radio components and high-performance Ethernet transport solutions.

What markets does Comcores address today? 
Comcores’ main markets today are 5G Wireless, Aerospace, Industrial Automation and Automotive. We have a solid background in delivering proven IP solutions to 4G and 5G Networks with a focus on O-RAN fronthaul and remote radio head solutions. Comcores is an active member of the O-RAN Alliance and a number of IEEE workgroups. Our close engagement in research and standardization ensures that Comcores solutions support the latest standards and are prepared for future developments.

Comcores also delivers reliable, high-performance IP core solutions including JESD204, Ethernet TSN, timing solutions to projects within Aerospace and Industrial Automation applications.

What makes Comcores and Comcores products unique?
The quality of our products combined with our agile approach in supporting our customers projects means we find a way to support specific customer requirements when off-the-shelf products are not the best fit.

Our long-term experience in dealing with global tier 1 customers, and servicing customers globally from Asia in the East to Silicon Valley/US in the West is another contributor to our success in being a trusted partner to global leaders in the markets we serve.

What’s next for Comcores? Or What is Comcores’ future direction?
We are strengthening our market position in Time-sensitive-networking (TSN) and timing solutions by adding more plug-and-play subsystem solutions to our portfolio tailored for different applications.

We will also cement our position as the global leader for JESD solutions and will build more chip-to-chip interface IP´s.

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Tower Semi Buyout Tips Intel’s Hand

Tower Semi Buyout Tips Intel’s Hand
by Doug O'Laughlin on 02-17-2022 at 2:00 pm

Tower Semiconductor Fabs 2022

The rationale behind the Tower Semi acquisition and things to watch out for at Intel’s investor day.

Intel bids for Tower Semi
First I have to quote myself because Tower was an error of omission. In November in a piece that was likely too long for its own good, I mentioned that trailing edge fabs are in a huge position of strength and even called out Tower Semi.

A name that I think is worth looking into, but I don’t really have the bandwidth for at this moment, is Tower Semi. It screams like a strategic asset, and all they’ve been doing for the last 10 years is buying lagging-edge fabs. Keep an eye on that, but for now I still think these aren’t as attractive as just metrology companies in Semicap.

First I think it’s funny because semicap has only gone down since then, and Tower Semi of course got a nearly 50% premium bid. So let’s dive a bit deeper into why Tower Semi is such a strategic asset and why Intel is buying them right now. Let’s start with a brief history of Tower Semi.

Tower Semi – The Fab Partner
Tower Semiconductor’s (formerly TowerJazz) history is a storied one. The beginning of Tower starts in 1993 with National Semiconductor’s divestiture of its Israeli fab in Migdal Haemek, Israel. Tower expanded its Israeli footprint with Fab 2 alongside Fab 1 in 2001.

The real transformational deal that made Tower into who they are today was an all-stock merger with Jazz semiconductor in 2008. Jazz semiconductor actually started as a subsidiary of Conexant and was funded by the Carlyle group. Jazz was taken public by a blank check company (SPAC!) and their fab is the Newport Beach fab.

The next big win was a Panasonic JV that enabled Tower to launch 3 Japanese fabs with Panasonic as the main customer and 49% owner. This JV helped Tower offer 65nm CMOS and 300mm technologies for the first time.

In 2016 they acquired another fab with the purchase of Maxim Integrated’s San Antonio fab. This was a way to offload the Maxim fab to transition to a fab-lite model and helped expand production of 200mm wafers for Tower.

Last but not least is the Agrate Italy fab. Tower Semi partnered with STMicroelectronics in 2021 to share the cleanroom of this fab. Tower has 1/3rd of the cleanroom and helps ramp the cleanroom to higher utilization faster.

A simplified graphic of their fab footprint is below.

Notice the types of deals Tower pursues, they are primarily JVs. Tower is the fab partner for many larger IDMs, and by acquiring Tower, Intel now has a new customer opportunity given the tight integration of JVs. Panasonic is Tower’s largest customer at ~25% of revenue, but there are 5 additional customers that account for 4-11% of sales. Then a long tail after that. The tail in particular is Intel’s opportunity.

I want to last talk about some of the niche products Tower has. They seem to be the leading Silicon Germanium (SiGe) manufacturer in the world, a specialty process that is useful for RF (radio frequency) front end. Tower is also a leader in silicon photonics fabrication.

In Tower’s own words their biggest drivers are RF CMOS, industrial sensors, RF mobile, and RF Infrastructure (datacom photonics). In particular, some amount of power ICs fabbing capability for Intel makes sense, RF CMOS likely is just nice to have, and RF infrastructure aligns almost directly with Intel’s future ambitions.

Notice the technology, the majority of their capacity is at the 200mm wafer sizing. While these fabs are “specialty” products, their 6-inch and 8-inch power capacity is not particularly special. I would say there is a good mix of leading specialties like the 300mm CMOS and SiGe (Silicon-Germanium), but the 150mm and 200mm power is relatively commoditized capacity. So now let’s discuss why Tower is a good fit for Intel.

Intel Foundry Service’s Jump Start
A reminder that Intel is not letting go of its Fab, but rather amplifying its fab capabilities in its “IDM 2.0” strategy. This is a renewed commitment to fabbing Intel’s own products, as well as opening up their fab and PDK (Process Design Kit) to other companies and customers. The thought here is that they can further leverage their large fab footprint and offer highly desired leading-edge foundry services to their customers in a time when companies desperately want more leading-edge capabilities. But where does Tower fit into that given their mostly lagging edge capacity?

I think Tower completes the fab footprint in a holistic sense. Imagine you want to fab something completely custom at Intel. It’s a whole unit of data center compute not just a CPU, with connected custom fabric, some silicon photonics, and of course, its power-hungry (PMICs).

In the current Intel world you could just get the leading edge chip and packaging, but not the rest of the silicon, photonics, or power IC that composes a total system. Imagine trying to buy a car and only being sold the engine and the ability to attach the engine to a car (packaging), that is the current scope of Intel Foundry Service (IFS).

Tower expands this. Now we have a full-service shop. And it’s no surprise actually if you look at their peer Taiwan Semiconductor, which is known for its leading-edge logic. But a closer look shows that 37% of TSMC’s revenue consists of geometries larger than 28nm. So in the case of TSMC, you can go to them and get the full solution. If IFS is to compete for head to head, they need Tower to complete their full solution.

This was discussed on their M&A call:

This combination of leading edge and specialty technologies will position us as a truly global end-to-end foundry. When we launched IFS last March, our customers were overwhelmingly excited to work with us. One of the things that consistently asked me was to add specialty and mature nodes to our portfolio. With Tower, we can honor that request and more broadly serve key market segments.

You can’t have a compelling IFS without making it full service. But more than that I think one of the biggest benefits is adding a new culture that is actually customer-centric. Some of the past critiques of Intel’s foundry plans were inflexibility and non-standard workflows.

Working with Intel in the past was like showing up at someone else’s garage and being forced to use their wacky tools and blueprints not being given much insight into how things were made. Tower has standard workflows and a more customer-centric fab culture, and this could be a huge kickstart to creating a standard workflow at IFS.

Yes. And while some of this is premature to talk about it too much detail, given the regulatory process, my expectation is that we will fully merge IFS and Tower into a single foundry business for Intel going forward. And part of the value and the synergy of the acquisition as the question suggest, is to fully benefit from that decades of experience that Tower brings and how to run a global foundry customer-centric business for our customers for the future. So overall, we’ll lay out more of that integration strategy as we get to the time of deal closure. But this will become one foundry business that will be the full integration of IFS today with Tower today.

So assuming IFS and Tower are all one unit, I am now warming up to a foundry spin. It was directly in opposition to what Pat Gelsinger has said before, but let’s examine it from the perspective of Gelsinger’s history and what he knows, aka the Dell corporate structure.

Intel Might Spin Foundry Now
I have followed the Dell complex (for lack of better words) at a surface level for a few years now. Michael Dell, the founder of the PC giant Dell, took Dell private in an audacious LBO with Silverlake. Pat Gelsinger worked at one of the subsidiaries at the time, and the subsequent corporate structure is likely familiar to Pat. While I don’t think Pat Gelsinger is going to take the Dell route it’s good to look at the corporate patterns and behaviors he knows best.

For context, Pat Gelsinger joined EMC as COO in 2009 and has watched the entire Dell structure emerge. This included the EMC collapse into Dell and the spinout of VMWare back to public markets. I’m sure he’s well versed in the logic of spin-offs and tracking stocks that were used at Dell. In fact, you can argue that the partial spin of Mobileye looks a lot like something Dell did with Vmware originally. I now think that this is what will happen in some capacity with Intel Foundry Services.

I don’t think this happens immediately because of the huge capital requirements of IFS, but I do think that post Mobileye spin, the promise of an IFS will be a carrot held over investors’ heads. IFS will be a completely separate unit, and now it has a history of financials and some kind of internal structure that it will inherit from Tower. It’s primed to spin.

I think that it will be mentioned as a “strategic option given market conditions” and broken out segment-wise. This will force investors to start to consider Intel as a SOTP valuation first and foremost. I know that this seems like a headache but Pat’s primary focus is likely on the technology side of things, and it’s easy to slip into what he knows corporate structure-wise. Especially when it enriched the Dell CEO so much. And having that potential option is going to be a valuable card to play in my opinion.

Intel would become a quasi holding company in this scenario, with partial stakes in faster-growing businesses (MBLY, IFS) while its core fabless business itself would be likely a slower growth entity that gets to benefit from its partial stakes in these tracking stocks. This sounds frankly the future of Intel. Now let’s move on to what to expect from Investor day.

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Intel’s Investor Day
I am for one excited for Investor day. Here are a few of the things I expect:

Resegments and new long term models for each segment

An absolute kitchen sinking of FY22 numbers

Guide up revenue marginally

Gross margins sub 52%

Guide down earnings

Some kind of FCF guide

An aggressive Capex plan, possibly matching TSMC

Mobileye discussion, and the hint of spinning IFS eventually

Progress reports on their catch up plan

They will promise performance parity in 2023

I’m almost certain I will be surprised by something they have. I expect some kind of product announcement, and in particular, I would love to hear more about their DPU.

I wanted to make a bingo sheet but didn’t have exactly enough time. I’ll be watching and live-tweeting the whole event on @_fabknowledge_

I will of course be drinking every time Pat says something horny, e.g. “puberty” at Intel, or “lusts” for fabs. But I’m excited about a good show and have to say, I am the most bullish I have been on Intel in a while. I think there is a chance they can really surprise us, and while I know that the FY22 numbers are about to get brought down, I believe that most investors already know this. Everyone knows that, and in recent days every expected miss has been reversed. I expect that to happen at Intel.

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CEVA Fortrix™ SecureD2D IP: Securing Communications between Heterogeneous Chiplets

CEVA Fortrix™ SecureD2D IP: Securing Communications between Heterogeneous Chiplets
by Kalar Rajendiran on 02-17-2022 at 10:00 am

Fortrix Controller Block Diagram

Discussions of chiplets has been on the rise, ever since the slowdown of Moore’s law benefits. Gartner Research projects semiconductor revenue from systems using chiplets to grow from $3.3 billion in 2020, to $50.5 billion in 2024. With any market opportunity, there are always challenges to overcome in order to realize the full potential. The chiplets market opportunity is no exception. Consequentially, a lot of development is happening to successfully support chiplets based design, methodology and integration.

First things first. What are chiplets? Chiplets are the multiple smaller dies we end up with after architecturally disintegrating a large integrated circuit or a SoC. Conceptually a chiplets-based design resembles a Silicon-In-Package (SiP) based design. SiP-based approach was historically adopted primarily for faster time to market by mixing and matching dies of pre-existing chips. And, typically the pre-existing chips are from the same vendor. While the mixing and matching part is true with chiplets too, the full market opportunity lies with heterogenous chiplets integration. Heterogeneous in this context means chiplets from different vendors. This aspect in itself raises lots of concerns with adoption, system security being one of them.

CEVA’s recently announced Fortrix SecureD2D IP addresses the above concern by securing die-to-die communications between chiplets in a heterogeneous SoC (HSoC). CEVA is well known for its technologies in wireless connectivity, smart sensing and sensor fusion, AI & Deep Learning, computer vision and audio processing. The Fortrix IP expands CEVA’s offerings into the system and IP platform space.

Before we diving into the details of the Fortrix IP, there is an interesting story to share about the early origins of this IP.

Over the recent past, the slowdown of Moore’s law benefits has been limiting the adoption of SoCs by the defense sector too. Realizing this, the Department of Defense (DoD) had launched the CHIPS program a few years ago. CHIPS stands for Common Heterogeneous Integration and Intellectual Property Reuse Strategies. The vision for this program was to conceive an ecosystem of discrete, modular, reusable IP which can be assembled into a secure system. For example, with a chiplets implementation, how to ensure die-to-die communications are safe and secure? How to guarantee a secure boot and protect against counterfeit chiplets? How to protect against firmware tampering? With the semiconductor supply chain distributed across the globe, possible breach of security and trust is a real concern. On the successful completion of the CHIPS program, DoD launched the SHIP program. SHIP stands for State-of-the-art Heterogeneous Integration Prototype.

Intrinsix (now a wholly-owned subsidiary of CEVA) customized the Fortrix SecureD2D IP for the SHIP program. If there is one industry that literally lives and breathes security and trust, that would be the defense industry. The Fortrix IP is now available for both commercial and defense oriented applications.  

CEVA Fortrix SecureD2D IP Solution

The CEVA FortrixTM is a hardware/software platform for developing secure chiplet based systems. The Fortrix SecureD2D IP offers secure authentication and firmware boot/code load between chiplets, and ensures system level security in a HSoC. The solution consists of a controller communicating over a secure fabric to hardware-based crypto accelerators. The accelerators support rapid encryption and decryption of functions including ECDSA, SHA2, and AES. The controller is embedded in all the chiplets within the HSoC.

Fortrix Controller Block Diagram

The chiplet containing the system host can be either an ASIC or an FPGA. The firmware for the companion chiplets is stored in a protected area of the host chiplet. A dedicated SPI bus connects the chiplets for establishing a crypto-secure channel. After authentication of the companion chiplet, the encrypted firmware is sent from the host to the companion chiplet. The Fortrix IP platform comes with a low-level API and a sample application for quick and easy customization of the IP.

Refer to the following block diagram to see how the chiplets are integrated within a HSoC.

HSoC Architecture Block Diagram

Benefits of Fortrix IP Platform

  • Protects against various security threats
  • Allows for threat protection expansion as threats evolve
  • Ease of incorporation into a HSoC
  • Efficient Crypto engines are very efficient in terms of compute cycles and power consumption

IP Availability

Fortrix SecureD2D IP is available for licensing today. Deliverables include RTL, SDC constraints, firmware and documentation. Customers desiring integration services can tap into CEVA’s design services offering for a full HSoC design and delivery.

You can read the full press release about the Fortrix IP here. You can learn more about it at the product page.

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Semiconductor Growth Moderating

Semiconductor Growth Moderating
by Bill Jewell on 02-17-2022 at 6:00 am

Top Semiconductor Company Revenue 2022

The global semiconductor market in 2021 was $555.9 billion, according to WSTS data released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). 2021 increased 26.2% from 2020, the largest annual increase since 31.8% in 2010, eleven years ago. We at Semiconductor Intelligence track publicly available semiconductor market forecasts and award a virtual prize for the most accurate forecast for the year. The criteria are a forecast publicly released anytime between November of the prior year and the release of January data from WSTS (generally in early March). The winner for 2021 is Future Horizons with an 18% forecast released in January 2021. Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons is a perennial optimist, usually calling for higher growth rates than other forecasters. For 2021 he was closest to being right. Runner-ups are 14% forecasts by us at Semiconductor Intelligence and by Evercore LSI. Most forecasts for 2021 made prior to March 2021 were in the range of 8% to 14%.

What is the outlook for 2022? Who will win the virtual forecasting prize next year? Recent forecasts for 2022 semiconductor market growth range from 9% from WSTS to 15% from us at Semiconductor Intelligence. Future Horizons is less optimistic for 2022 than for 2021, with a 10% projection based on a downturn beginning in 4Q 2022.

Revenues of the top semiconductor companies were generally strong in 4Q 2021. Non-memory companies grew revenues 7% in 4Q 2021 versus 3Q 2021. The strongest growth was from Qualcomm at 14%, AMD at 12% and STMicroelectronics at 11%. All other non-memory companies had revenue increases ranging from 3% to 8%. The weighted average guidance for 1Q 2022 for the non-memory companies is a 1% decline from 4Q 2021. Excluding Intel, which is expecting a 6% decline, the non-memory companies expect 2% growth in 1Q 2022 versus 4Q 2021. Most companies indicate continuing supply chain problems, with overall demand still exceeding supply.

The memory companies (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron Technology and Kioxia) collectively had a 5% decline in revenue in 4Q 2021 versus 3Q 2021. SK Hynix and Kioxia had revenue gains while Samsung and Micron had revenue declines. The memory companies generally see strong demand, but shortages of other components are hampering the production of some electronic equipment and the demand for memory in these products.

The first quarter of the year typically shows a revenue decline from the fourth quarter of the prior year. Over the last ten years, 1Q has declined from 0.5% to 15% from 4Q – except for 1Q 2021 which was up 3.8% from 4Q 2020. With many companies guiding growth in revenue in 1Q 2022, the outlook for the year 2022 is healthy. We are projecting 1Q 2022 will be flat to down slightly from 4Q 2021. Growth in 2Q 2022 through 4Q 2022 should be moderately healthy as capacity shortages continue to be worked out. Thus, we at Semiconductor Intelligence feel reasonably confident with our 15% forecast for 2022.

Looking beyond 2022, many factors come into play. Most semiconductor shortages are expected to be resolved by 2023, leading to a more balanced market. Global economies should be back on track by 2023, with either the end of the COVID-19 pandemic or the world learning to manage COVID-19 while maintaining relatively normal economic activity.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) January forecast calls for 4.4% global GDP growth in 2022. Global GDP grew 5.9% in 2021 in a bounce back from a pandemic driven downturn in 2020. The IMF expects global GDP growth to moderate to 3.8% in 2023 – close to the long-term trend – as economies return to more normal activity. IDC projects smartphones growth will moderate from 5.3% in 2021 to the 3% to 4% range in 2022 to 2024. IDC forecasts PCs will decline 1.1% in 2022 following pandemic-driven boom growth of 14.8% in 2021. PCs are expected to grow in the 1% to 2% range in 2023 to 2024, again close to the long-term trend.

The automotive market has been hard hit by parts shortages in the last year. Statista estimated 2021 light vehicle production growth of 8% in 2021, but growth would have been higher if more parts had been available. Parts shortages should persist into 2022 with some easing by 2023. Statista projects strong growth of 9% in 2022 and 11% in 2023 as automotive suppliers respond to pent-up demand. Growth is pegged at 6% in 2024, returning closer to normal trends

IC-Insights predicts the semiconductor market will return to recent long term growth trends, with a compound annual growth of 7.1% from 2021 to 2026. At Semiconductor Intelligence, we expect 2023 semiconductor market growth in the high single digits – in line with historical trends.

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Podcast EP62: Exploring the VSORA architecture

Podcast EP62: Exploring the VSORA architecture
by Daniel Nenni on 02-16-2022 at 10:00 am

Dan is joined by Jan Pantzar, VP sales and marketing of VSORA, a provider of high-performance silicon intellectual property (IP) and chip solutions for artificial intelligence, digital communications and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) applications based in France.

Dan and Jan explore the VSORA architecture that uniquely combines DSP with machine learning acceleration and high-bandwidth memory-on-chip. Current and future use in applications such as self-driving cars are explored.

https://www.vsora.com/

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in these podcasts belong solely to the speaker, and not to the speaker’s employer, organization, committee or any other group or individual.