KLA – Keep Looking Ahead because we don’t know the future of China & Covid

KLA – Keep Looking Ahead because we don’t know the future of China & Covid
by Robert Maire on 05-11-2020 at 6:00 am

KLAC Covid SemiWiki

-Great quarter & execution with minimal Covid impact
-Wide guide is better than no guide as future is very fuzzy
-Feels like slightly down H2 W/ unknown embargo impact

KLA is virtually unscathed by Covid for now at least
KLA put up a very solid quarter with revenues of $1.424B and Non GAAP EPS of $2.47 versus street of $1.39B and … Read More


Covid Created Collateral China Crisis

Covid Created Collateral China Crisis
by Robert Maire on 05-03-2020 at 6:00 am

China US Trade Agreement 2020

Economic damage-
China relationship damage will far outlast direct Covid19 logistics impact-
Economic damage could be huge but trade damage could be larger with more specific impact on chips-

A long build up to a China trade nuclear winter, the “drum-beat of war”
When we started talking about a potential chip trade… Read More


Will the Q1 Haircut become Covid-19 Crew Cut in Q2?

Will the Q1 Haircut become Covid-19 Crew Cut in Q2?
by Robert Maire on 03-16-2020 at 5:00 am

Corvid 19 Crew Cut Semiwiki
  • Corona impact growing exponentially in chip food chain
  • YMTC in Wuhan may be “patient zero”
  • Q1 revenue haircuts may turn into Q2 crewcuts
  • Working from home really doesn’t work

When does a haircut become a crew cut in revenues?
All the major semiconductor equipment makers took a significant haircut to their Q1… Read More


Great, early signs of a recovery in logic, not memory

Great, early signs of a recovery in logic, not memory
by Robert Maire on 07-21-2019 at 12:00 pm

A “Logic Lead” recovery confirmed- Memory still mired, 3400C = “Third times a charm”. EUV finally accelerates as all ducks now in a row.

ASML posted a good quarter with great orders and capped off with a strong outlook for the current quarter.  Logic demand is sparking a recovery while memory remains essentially… Read More


Bottom of a Semiconductor Canoe Cycle Shape

Bottom of a Semiconductor Canoe Cycle Shape
by Robert Maire on 05-09-2019 at 12:00 pm

Nice numbers despite the cycle bottom
KLA put up EPS of $1.80 versus street of $1.67 on revenues of $1.097B versus street of $1.08B. However guidance was weaker than the street was hoping for with a range of $1.21B to $1.29B in revenues generating between $1.55 and $1.85 in non GAAP EPS. This is compared to current street estimates … Read More


Report from SPIE EUV Update 2019

Report from SPIE EUV Update 2019
by Robert Maire on 03-01-2019 at 7:00 am

Not as much new – No breakthrough announcements, 300 watts is better than 250 watts – Pellicle Problems, TSMC is EUV king – Third times a charm? We attended this years SPIE Lithography convention in San Jose as we have for many years. Although the show was quite enthusiastic and EUV was the central topic, as it has… Read More


Samsung pre-announces miss on weak memory and phones

Samsung pre-announces miss on weak memory and phones
by Robert Maire on 01-09-2019 at 7:00 am

It should come as no big surprise that Samsung will miss its Q4 numbers. The company pre announced that profits will be 10.8T KWON (about $9.7B ) versus the 13.2T KWON analysts had predicted, close to a 20% miss. This number is also down about 39% sequentially. Revenue at 59T KWON instead of expected 62.8T KWON and down about 10%. The… Read More


AMAT talks long term AI but short term is ugly

AMAT talks long term AI but short term is ugly
by Robert Maire on 07-15-2018 at 7:00 am

We attended Semicon West Monday and Tuesday, the annual show for the semi equipment industry. Its very clear from discussions with all our sources in the industry that confirm that Samsung has put the brakes on spending on memory and that message was reinforced by declines in their expected profitability due to weaker memory pricing.… Read More


DOJ takes victory Lap in KLAC / LRCX deal post mortem (3 of 3)

DOJ takes victory Lap in KLAC / LRCX deal post mortem (3 of 3)
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2016 at 4:00 pm

The KLA deal died due to fox guarding the hen house.

Fox can’t guard Hen House…
In an industry where there are relatively few widget makers and only one, very dominant, widget inspector, the thought of one of the widget makers buying the most crucial widget inspector obviously would be anti-competitive. Not only would… Read More


The KLAM deal has died now how will KLAC and LRCX recover? (2 of 3)

The KLAM deal has died now how will KLAC and LRCX recover? (2 of 3)
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2016 at 12:00 pm

As we had been suggesting the merger deal between KLAC and LRCX has failed. It obviously ran into too many complications, costs or other issues to continue. Unlike the Applied TEL deal which went on for a staggering 18 months before calling it quits in this case 12 months was enough to figure out it wasn’t getting done.

In our … Read More